NFL Elo Update
Run date 2026-09-18 · Week 2 · the power ratings, this week's games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo power ratings
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Pt diff | Elo | Δ pre |
|---|
| 1 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 1-0 | +3 | 1661 | +9 |
| 2 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 2-0 | +15 | 1628 | +36 |
| 3 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 1-0 | +20 | 1585 | +34 |
| 4 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 1-0 | +24 | 1576 | +16 |
| 5 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 0-1 | -3 | 1575 | -9 |
| 6 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 0-1 | -5 | 1571 | -20 |
| 7 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 1-0 | +17 | 1565 | +23 |
| 8 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 1-0 | +18 | 1563 | +28 |
| 9 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 0-1 | -20 | 1562 | -34 |
| 10 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 1-0 | +2 | 1559 | +6 |
| 11 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 0-1 | -21 | 1558 | -36 |
| 12 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 1-0 | +22 | 1553 | +27 |
| 13 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 1-1 | -9 | 1533 | -12 |
| 14 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 1-0 | +21 | 1526 | +36 |
| 15 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 1-0 | +7 | 1524 | +15 |
| 16 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 0-1 | -17 | 1500 | -23 |
| 17 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 1-0 | +6 | 1493 | +17 |
| 18 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0-1 | -12 | 1486 | -37 |
| 19 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 0-1 | -6 | 1464 | -17 |
| 20 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 0-1 | -7 | 1458 | -15 |
| 21 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 0-1 | -2 | 1453 | -6 |
| 22 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 1-0 | +8 | 1450 | +21 |
| 23 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 0-1 | -18 | 1443 | -28 |
| 24 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 1-0 | +12 | 1440 | +37 |
| 25 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 0-1 | -1 | 1440 | -4 |
| 26 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 0-1 | -8 | 1438 | -21 |
| 27 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 0-1 | -14 | 1428 | -30 |
| 28 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 0-1 | -24 | 1413 | -16 |
| 29 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 0-1 | -22 | 1411 | -27 |
| 30 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 1-0 | +13 | 1404 | +30 |
| 31 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 1-0 | +14 | 1397 | +30 |
| 32 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 0-1 | -13 | 1341 | -30 |
Divisions by average Elo
| # | Division | Avg | Preseason | In top 10 | Best | Worst |
|---|
| 1 | NFC West | 1562 | 1550 | 3 | SEA (1661) | ARI (1440) |
| 2 | NFC North | 1538 | 1534 | 1 | MIN (1565) | GB (1500) |
| 3 | AFC East | 1509 | 1502 | 2 | BUF (1628) | NYJ (1404) |
| 4 | AFC North | 1498 | 1487 | 1 | BAL (1563) | CLE (1413) |
| 5 | AFC West | 1492 | 1494 | 0 | DEN (1558) | LV (1397) |
| 6 | AFC South | 1483 | 1498 | 2 | JAX (1576) | TEN (1341) |
| 7 | NFC East | 1475 | 1475 | 1 | PHI (1559) | DAL (1438) |
| 8 | NFC South | 1444 | 1459 | 0 | TB (1464) | CAR (1411) |
📅 This week's games
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 14 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 13:00 | CAR @ ATL | ATL | 61% | -3.7 | 25.1–21.5 | 46.6 |
| 13:00 | NO @ BAL | BAL | 77% | -6.8 | 26.1–19.3 | 45.4 |
| 13:00 | MIN @ CHI | CHI | 63% | -1.2 | 23.5–22.3 | 45.8 |
| 13:00 | CIN @ HOU | HOU | 60% | -4.9 | 27.2–22.3 | 49.5 |
| 13:00 | PIT @ NE | NE | 71% | -4.7 | 22.9–18.2 | 41.1 |
| 13:00 | GB @ NYJ | GB | 67% | +2.2 | 24.0–21.8 | 45.8 |
| 13:00 | CLE @ TB | TB | 66% | -3.8 | 23.2–19.4 | 42.6 |
| 13:00 | PHI @ TEN | PHI | 70% | +7.2 | 25.3–18.1 | 43.4 |
| 16:05 | JAX @ DEN | JAX | 57% | -1.0 | 21.5–22.5 | 44.0 |
| 16:05 | LV @ LAC | LAC | 65% | -5.4 | 21.9–16.6 | 38.5 |
| 16:25 | SEA @ ARI | SEA | 68% | +8.2 | 27.5–19.3 | 46.8 |
| 16:25 | WAS @ DAL | DAL | 54% | -1.1 | 26.9–25.7 | 52.6 |
| 16:25 | MIA @ SF | SF | 82% | -9.0 | 27.4–18.5 | 45.9 |
| 20:20 | IND @ KC | KC | 72% | -5.1 | 25.5–20.4 | 45.9 |
Monday 2026-09-21 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | NYG @ LA | LA | 64% | -7.1 | 28.2–21.1 | 49.3 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N; a side off its bye gets the rest edge). The Elo line is the model's own spread from the home side — it has never seen a market number. Expected score is that margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each team's recent points for/against, shrunk to the league mean); read it as an average, not a literal final.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 10/15 | 66.7% | 0.6361 | -0.0286 ± 0.0566 |
| Last 30 days | 11/17 | 64.7% | 0.6346 | -0.0279 ± 0.0516 |
| Season to date | 11/17 | 64.7% | 0.6346 | -0.0279 ± 0.0516 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.55, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Picks lock the first morning a game appears on a slate.
Past week: 10/15 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Elo line | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | CHI @ CAR | CHI (56%) | +1.7 | 37–59 | 0.59 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | TB @ CIN | CIN (56%) | -1.7 | 33–27 | 0.58 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | NO @ DET | DET (70%) | -6.0 | 31–30 | 0.35 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-13 | BUF @ HOU | HOU (57%) | -1.8 | 31–36 | 0.84 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | BAL @ IND | BAL (52%) | +0.8 | 23–41 | 0.65 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | CLE @ JAX | JAX (74%) | -7.2 | 34–10 | 0.30 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-13 | ARI @ LAC | LAC (72%) | -6.8 | 14–26 | 1.29 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-13 | MIA @ LV | MIA (56%) | +1.9 | 27–13 | 0.83 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | GB @ MIN | MIN (60%) | -2.7 | 39–22 | 0.52 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | DAL @ NYG | NYG (53%) | -0.7 | 28–20 | 0.64 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | WAS @ PHI | PHI (69%) | -5.7 | 24–22 | 0.37 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | ATL @ PIT | PIT (62%) | -3.3 | 20–13 | 0.48 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-13 | NYJ @ TEN | TEN (56%) | -1.7 | 10–23 | 0.83 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-14 | DEN @ KC | DEN (58%) | +2.4 | 31–10 | 0.86 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-17 | DET @ BUF | BUF (66%) | -4.4 | 41–31 | 0.42 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Super Bowl odds — all 32
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Proj W-L | Division | Playoffs | #1 seed | Conf. title | Super Bowl |
|---|
| 1 | SEA | NFC West | 1-0 | 12.2-4.8 | 56% | 86% | 31% | 26% | 15% |
| 2 | BUF | AFC East | 2-0 | 11.9-5.1 | 65% | 87% | 28% | 22% | 12% |
| 3 | SF | NFC West | 1-0 | 10.7-6.3 | 29% | 69% | 14% | 13% | 7% |
| 4 | JAX | AFC South | 1-0 | 10.5-6.5 | 48% | 71% | 13% | 13% | 6% |
| 5 | BAL | AFC North | 1-0 | 10.8-6.2 | 44% | 73% | 15% | 12% | 6% |
| 6 | MIN | NFC North | 1-0 | 10.5-6.5 | 37% | 66% | 12% | 11% | 5% |
| 7 | HOU | AFC South | 0-1 | 9.9-7.1 | 41% | 65% | 8% | 11% | 5% |
| 8 | PHI | NFC East | 1-0 | 10.3-6.7 | 57% | 69% | 11% | 10% | 5% |
| 9 | NE | AFC East | 0-1 | 9.5-7.5 | 26% | 60% | 8% | 10% | 5% |
| 10 | CHI | NFC North | 1-0 | 9.8-7.2 | 28% | 58% | 9% | 9% | 5% |
| 11 | DEN | AFC West | 0-1 | 9.0-8.0 | 34% | 53% | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| 12 | LA | NFC West | 0-1 | 9.0-8.0 | 11% | 46% | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| 13 | KC | AFC West | 1-0 | 9.4-7.6 | 41% | 60% | 6% | 7% | 3% |
| 14 | PIT | AFC North | 1-0 | 9.6-7.4 | 27% | 55% | 7% | 6% | 3% |
| 15 | DET | NFC North | 1-1 | 9.6-7.4 | 24% | 55% | 6% | 6% | 3% |
| 16 | CIN | AFC North | 1-0 | 9.2-7.8 | 23% | 51% | 5% | 5% | 2% |
| 17 | GB | NFC North | 0-1 | 8.0-9.0 | 11% | 33% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 18 | TB | NFC South | 0-1 | 7.7-9.3 | 32% | 39% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 19 | LAC | AFC West | 0-1 | 7.0-10.0 | 15% | 27% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 20 | ATL | NFC South | 0-1 | 7.4-9.6 | 27% | 34% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 | NYG | NFC East | 1-0 | 7.9-9.1 | 20% | 33% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 22 | NO | NFC South | 0-1 | 7.3-9.7 | 26% | 32% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 | DAL | NFC East | 0-1 | 6.7-10.3 | 10% | 18% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 | WAS | NFC East | 0-1 | 7.1-9.9 | 12% | 23% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 25 | ARI | NFC West | 1-0 | 7.3-9.7 | 4% | 21% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 26 | CAR | NFC South | 0-1 | 6.1-10.9 | 15% | 18% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 27 | CLE | AFC North | 0-1 | 6.8-10.2 | 7% | 21% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 28 | MIA | AFC East | 0-1 | 5.8-11.2 | 4% | 13% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 29 | IND | AFC South | 0-1 | 7.0-10.0 | 9% | 22% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 30 | LV | AFC West | 1-0 | 6.5-10.5 | 10% | 18% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 31 | NYJ | AFC East | 1-0 | 6.6-10.4 | 5% | 19% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 32 | TEN | AFC South | 0-1 | 4.7-12.3 | 2% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Division races
| Division | Title odds |
|---|
| AFC East | BUF 65%, NE 26%, NYJ 5%, MIA 4% |
| AFC North | BAL 44%, PIT 27%, CIN 23%, CLE 7% |
| AFC South | JAX 48%, HOU 41%, IND 9%, TEN 2% |
| AFC West | KC 41%, DEN 34%, LAC 15%, LV 10% |
| NFC East | PHI 57%, NYG 20%, WAS 12%, DAL 10% |
| NFC North | MIN 37%, CHI 28%, DET 24%, GB 11% |
| NFC South | TB 32%, ATL 27%, NO 26%, CAR 15% |
| NFC West | SEA 56%, SF 29%, LA 11%, ARI 4% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 255 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo, then the full seven-team bracket: Wild Card at the higher seed, the #1 seed off its bye, Super Bowl at a neutral site). Ties break on division / conference record, then at random — the real tiebreaker ladder is not modeled.
Betting-blind NFL Elo (margin-weighted updates, bye-week rest edge, off-season regression) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/nfl