NFL Elo Update
Run date 2026-09-23 · Week 3 · the power ratings, this week's games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo power ratings
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Pt diff | Elo | Δ pre |
|---|
| 1 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 2-0 | +27 | 1676 | +24 |
| 2 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 2-0 | +15 | 1628 | +36 |
| 3 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 2-0 | +42 | 1597 | +47 |
| 4 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 1-1 | +14 | 1593 | +9 |
| 5 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 2-0 | +23 | 1587 | +44 |
| 6 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 1-1 | +2 | 1577 | -19 |
| 7 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 1-1 | -14 | 1577 | -17 |
| 8 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 2-0 | +6 | 1568 | +14 |
| 9 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 1-1 | +17 | 1557 | -3 |
| 10 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 2-0 | +24 | 1535 | +44 |
| 11 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 0-2 | -19 | 1534 | -57 |
| 12 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 1-1 | -9 | 1533 | -12 |
| 13 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 1-1 | +11 | 1533 | -2 |
| 14 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 1-1 | +16 | 1531 | +6 |
| 15 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 2-0 | +20 | 1530 | +53 |
| 16 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 1-1 | -14 | 1512 | -11 |
| 17 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 1-1 | -10 | 1505 | -3 |
| 18 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 1-1 | +6 | 1470 | +26 |
| 19 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 1-1 | +9 | 1464 | +5 |
| 20 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 1-1 | +9 | 1455 | +16 |
| 21 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0-2 | -24 | 1450 | -72 |
| 22 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 0-2 | -10 | 1444 | -37 |
| 23 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 1-1 | -14 | 1435 | +5 |
| 24 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 0-2 | -21 | 1435 | -36 |
| 25 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 1-1 | -20 | 1434 | +5 |
| 26 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 2-0 | +26 | 1432 | +66 |
| 27 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 0-2 | -19 | 1427 | -32 |
| 28 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 1-1 | -12 | 1425 | +22 |
| 29 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 0-2 | -36 | 1416 | -43 |
| 30 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 0-2 | -38 | 1414 | -59 |
| 31 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 1-1 | +10 | 1393 | +18 |
| 32 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 0-2 | -17 | 1333 | -38 |
Divisions by average Elo
| # | Division | Avg | Preseason | In top 10 | Best | Worst |
|---|
| 1 | NFC West | 1569 | 1550 | 3 | SEA (1676) | ARI (1425) |
| 2 | NFC North | 1541 | 1534 | 1 | MIN (1587) | GB (1512) |
| 3 | AFC East | 1508 | 1502 | 2 | BUF (1628) | NYJ (1393) |
| 4 | AFC North | 1500 | 1487 | 0 | BAL (1533) | CLE (1434) |
| 5 | AFC West | 1499 | 1494 | 2 | DEN (1577) | LV (1432) |
| 6 | NFC East | 1474 | 1475 | 1 | PHI (1568) | WAS (1427) |
| 7 | AFC South | 1465 | 1498 | 1 | JAX (1557) | TEN (1333) |
| 8 | NFC South | 1446 | 1459 | 0 | NO (1470) | ATL (1414) |
📅 This week's games
Thursday 2026-09-24 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | ATL @ GB | GB | 68% | -5.7 | 25.3–19.6 | 44.9 |
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 14 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 13:00 | LAC @ BUF | BUF | 86% | -9.8 | 28.1–18.2 | 46.3 |
| 13:00 | CAR @ CLE | CAR | 61% | -0.8 | 21.0–21.8 | 42.8 |
| 13:00 | NYJ @ DET | DET | 80% | -8.3 | 29.4–21.1 | 50.5 |
| 13:00 | HOU @ IND | HOU | 53% | +2.4 | 25.6–23.2 | 48.7 |
| 13:00 | NE @ JAX | JAX | 61% | -0.2 | 21.0–20.8 | 41.8 |
| 13:00 | KC @ MIA | KC | 71% | +3.2 | 23.0–19.8 | 42.8 |
| 13:00 | TEN @ NYG | NYG | 64% | -5.9 | 25.4–19.5 | 44.8 |
| 13:00 | CIN @ PIT | CIN | 55% | -0.7 | 22.6–23.3 | 45.8 |
| 13:00 | SEA @ WAS | SEA | 68% | +8.5 | 27.5–19.0 | 46.5 |
| 16:05 | ARI @ SF | SF | 79% | -8.7 | 28.7–20.0 | 48.7 |
| 16:05 | MIN @ TB | MIN | 56% | +4.2 | 23.0–18.8 | 41.9 |
| 16:25 | BAL vs. DAL (N) | BAL | 64% | +3.1 | 27.9–24.8 | 52.7 |
| 16:25 | LV @ NO | NO | 72% | -3.3 | 21.7–18.4 | 40.1 |
| 20:20 | LA @ DEN | DEN | 50% | -1.7 | 23.2–21.5 | 44.7 |
Monday 2026-09-28 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | PHI @ CHI | CHI | 59% | -0.2 | 22.6–22.4 | 45.0 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N; a side off its bye gets the rest edge). The Elo line is the model's own spread from the home side — it has never seen a market number. Expected score is that margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each team's recent points for/against, shrunk to the league mean); read it as an average, not a literal final.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 10/16 | 62.5% | 0.6591 | -0.0516 ± 0.0766 |
| Last 30 days | 20/32 | 62.5% | 0.6535 | -0.0351 ± 0.0462 |
| Season to date | 20/32 | 62.5% | 0.6535 | -0.0351 ± 0.0462 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.55, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Picks lock the first morning a game appears on a slate.
Past week: 10/16 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Elo line | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-09-17 | DET @ BUF | BUF (66%) | -4.4 | 41–31 | 0.42 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | SEA @ ARI | SEA (75%) | +8.2 | 7–31 | 0.28 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | CAR @ ATL | ATL (63%) | -3.7 | 3–34 | 1.00 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | NO @ BAL | BAL (73%) | -6.8 | 17–24 | 1.30 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | MIN @ CHI | CHI (55%) | -1.2 | 3–9 | 0.80 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | WAS @ DAL | DAL (55%) | -1.1 | 37–20 | 0.60 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | JAX @ DEN | DEN (54%) | -1.0 | 20–13 | 0.61 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | CIN @ HOU | HOU (67%) | -4.9 | 6–20 | 1.12 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | IND @ KC | KC (68%) | -5.1 | 33–30 | 0.38 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | LV @ LAC | LAC (69%) | -5.3 | 14–26 | 1.16 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | PIT @ NE | NE (67%) | -4.6 | 20–3 | 0.41 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | GB @ NYJ | GB (57%) | +2.2 | 17–20 | 0.57 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | MIA @ SF | SF (78%) | -9.0 | 35–13 | 0.24 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-20 | CLE @ TB | TB (64%) | -3.8 | 19–23 | 1.02 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-20 | PHI @ TEN | PHI (73%) | +7.2 | 20–24 | 0.32 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-21 | NYG @ LA | LA (74%) | -7.1 | 28–6 | 0.30 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Super Bowl odds — all 32
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Proj W-L | Division | Playoffs | #1 seed | Conf. title | Super Bowl |
|---|
| 1 | SEA | NFC West | 2-0 | 12.6-4.4 | 58% | 89% | 34% | 28% | 16% |
| 2 | BUF | AFC East | 2-0 | 11.9-5.1 | 63% | 87% | 30% | 23% | 12% |
| 3 | MIN | NFC North | 2-0 | 11.4-5.6 | 52% | 79% | 18% | 14% | 7% |
| 4 | NE | AFC East | 1-1 | 10.2-6.8 | 32% | 70% | 12% | 13% | 7% |
| 5 | SF | NFC West | 2-0 | 11.1-5.9 | 29% | 74% | 15% | 13% | 7% |
| 6 | PHI | NFC East | 2-0 | 10.8-6.2 | 64% | 74% | 12% | 11% | 5% |
| 7 | DEN | AFC West | 1-1 | 9.8-7.2 | 40% | 65% | 8% | 11% | 5% |
| 8 | JAX | AFC South | 1-1 | 9.9-7.1 | 51% | 67% | 7% | 9% | 5% |
| 9 | CIN | AFC North | 2-0 | 10.7-6.3 | 43% | 72% | 15% | 9% | 4% |
| 10 | LA | NFC West | 1-1 | 9.5-7.5 | 11% | 52% | 5% | 8% | 4% |
| 11 | KC | AFC West | 2-0 | 9.8-7.2 | 41% | 65% | 9% | 8% | 4% |
| 12 | BAL | AFC North | 1-1 | 9.5-7.5 | 27% | 59% | 7% | 7% | 3% |
| 13 | DET | NFC North | 1-1 | 9.6-7.4 | 22% | 54% | 5% | 6% | 3% |
| 14 | HOU | AFC South | 0-2 | 8.8-8.2 | 35% | 50% | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| 15 | CHI | NFC North | 1-1 | 8.8-8.2 | 13% | 42% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| 16 | PIT | AFC North | 1-1 | 8.7-8.3 | 18% | 44% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| 17 | GB | NFC North | 1-1 | 8.7-8.3 | 12% | 38% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 18 | NO | NFC South | 1-1 | 8.6-8.4 | 43% | 48% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 19 | CAR | NFC South | 1-1 | 7.5-9.5 | 28% | 32% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 20 | CLE | AFC North | 1-1 | 7.9-9.1 | 12% | 32% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 | DAL | NFC East | 1-1 | 7.8-9.2 | 16% | 28% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 22 | LV | AFC West | 2-0 | 7.7-9.3 | 15% | 32% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 | TB | NFC South | 0-2 | 6.6-10.4 | 19% | 24% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 | NYG | NFC East | 1-1 | 7.4-9.6 | 14% | 24% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 25 | IND | AFC South | 0-2 | 6.6-10.4 | 11% | 19% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 26 | LAC | AFC West | 0-2 | 5.5-11.5 | 4% | 11% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 27 | WAS | NFC East | 0-2 | 6.2-10.8 | 5% | 12% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 28 | ARI | NFC West | 1-1 | 6.6-10.4 | 2% | 13% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 29 | NYJ | AFC East | 1-1 | 6.0-11.0 | 3% | 13% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 30 | ATL | NFC South | 0-2 | 5.8-11.2 | 11% | 14% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 31 | MIA | AFC East | 0-2 | 5.4-11.6 | 2% | 10% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 32 | TEN | AFC South | 0-2 | 4.4-12.6 | 2% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Division races
| Division | Title odds |
|---|
| AFC East | BUF 63%, NE 32%, NYJ 3%, MIA 2% |
| AFC North | CIN 43%, BAL 27%, PIT 18%, CLE 12% |
| AFC South | JAX 51%, HOU 35%, IND 11%, TEN 2% |
| AFC West | KC 41%, DEN 40%, LV 15%, LAC 4% |
| NFC East | PHI 64%, DAL 16%, NYG 14%, WAS 5% |
| NFC North | MIN 52%, DET 22%, CHI 13%, GB 12% |
| NFC South | NO 43%, CAR 28%, TB 19%, ATL 11% |
| NFC West | SEA 58%, SF 29%, LA 11%, ARI 2% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 240 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo, then the full seven-team bracket: Wild Card at the higher seed, the #1 seed off its bye, Super Bowl at a neutral site). Ties break on division / conference record, then at random — the real tiebreaker ladder is not modeled.
Betting-blind NFL Elo (margin-weighted updates, bye-week rest edge, off-season regression) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/nfl