NFL Elo Update
Run date 2026-10-12 · Week 5 · the power ratings, this week's games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo power ratings
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Pt diff | Elo | Δ pre |
|---|
| 1 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 3-2 | +29 | 1648 | -4 |
| 2 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 5-0 | +61 | 1641 | +91 |
| 3 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 5-0 | +45 | 1621 | +78 |
| 4 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 3-1 | +20 | 1618 | +25 |
| 5 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 4-1 | +53 | 1614 | +54 |
| 6 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 3-2 | +16 | 1596 | +12 |
| 7 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 3-2 | -14 | 1585 | -8 |
| 8 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 2-2 | +2 | 1580 | -16 |
| 9 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 4-1 | +27 | 1570 | +34 |
| 10 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 4-0 | +41 | 1568 | +77 |
| 11 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 3-2 | +16 | 1544 | -1 |
| 12 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 3-2 | +23 | 1534 | +9 |
| 13 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 3-2 | +2 | 1521 | +13 |
| 14 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 1-4 | -2 | 1519 | -72 |
| 15 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 3-2 | -8 | 1518 | -5 |
| 16 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 3-2 | +19 | 1517 | +40 |
| 17 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 2-3 | -20 | 1513 | -40 |
| 18 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 2-3 | -3 | 1470 | -4 |
| 19 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 2-2 | +12 | 1465 | +26 |
| 20 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 3-1-1 | +3 | 1465 | +35 |
| 21 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 2-3 | -14 | 1458 | -13 |
| 22 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 2-3 | +2 | 1446 | -13 |
| 23 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 1-4 | -12 | 1444 | -37 |
| 24 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 3-2 | -19 | 1440 | +11 |
| 25 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 3-2 | +3 | 1432 | +65 |
| 26 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0-5 | -45 | 1422 | -101 |
| 27 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 1-3-1 | -34 | 1415 | -44 |
| 28 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 1-4 | -33 | 1398 | -46 |
| 29 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 2-3 | -3 | 1395 | +20 |
| 30 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 1-4 | -54 | 1374 | -29 |
| 31 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 0-5 | -62 | 1372 | -86 |
| 32 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 0-5 | -51 | 1298 | -73 |
Divisions by average Elo
| # | Division | Avg | Preseason | In top 10 | Best | Worst |
|---|
| 1 | NFC West | 1561 | 1550 | 3 | SEA (1648) | ARI (1374) |
| 2 | NFC North | 1554 | 1534 | 1 | MIN (1621) | GB (1518) |
| 3 | AFC North | 1512 | 1487 | 1 | BAL (1570) | CLE (1440) |
| 4 | AFC West | 1502 | 1494 | 2 | DEN (1585) | LAC (1422) |
| 5 | AFC East | 1495 | 1502 | 2 | BUF (1618) | MIA (1372) |
| 6 | AFC South | 1472 | 1498 | 1 | JAX (1614) | TEN (1298) |
| 7 | NFC East | 1460 | 1475 | 0 | PHI (1513) | WAS (1415) |
| 8 | NFC South | 1444 | 1459 | 0 | ATL (1470) | NO (1398) |
📅 This week's games
Monday 2026-10-12 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | BUF @ LA | LA | 54% | -0.1 | 26.1–25.9 | 52.0 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N; a side off its bye gets the rest edge). The Elo line is the model's own spread from the home side — it has never seen a market number. Expected score is that margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each team's recent points for/against, shrunk to the league mean); read it as an average, not a literal final.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 9/15 | 60.0% | 0.5982 | -0.1267 ± 0.0597 |
| Last 30 days | 50/76 | 65.8% | 0.6127 | -0.0761 ± 0.0311 |
| Season to date | 51/78 | 65.4% | 0.6129 | -0.0747 ± 0.0305 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.55, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Picks lock the first morning a game appears on a slate.
Past week: 9/15 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Elo line | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ❌ | 2026-10-05 | ATL @ NO | NO (51%) | -0.3 | 24–45 | 0.72 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-08 | TB @ DAL | DAL (61%) | -4.1 | 16–24 | 0.94 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-11 | DET @ ARI | DET (60%) | +3.3 | 21–45 | 0.52 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-11 | BAL @ ATL | ATL (52%) | +0.8 | 23–30 | 0.73 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-11 | CHI @ GB | CHI (63%) | +1.9 | 31–7 | 0.98 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-11 | PHI @ JAX | JAX (77%) | -5.2 | 19–17 | 0.26 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-11 | DEN @ LAC | DEN (62%) | +3.8 | 17–23 | 0.47 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-11 | CIN @ MIA | CIN (67%) | +2.9 | 24–31 | 0.41 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-11 | LV @ NE | NE (76%) | -7.0 | 45–17 | 0.27 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-11 | MIN @ NO | MIN (56%) | +6.3 | 13–23 | 0.58 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-11 | CLE @ NYJ | CLE (51%) | +2.7 | 17–12 | 0.71 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-11 | IND @ PIT | PIT (53%) | -3.6 | 34–22 | 0.63 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-11 | SF @ SEA | SF (52%) | -3.4 | 29–32 | 0.66 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-11 | HOU @ TEN | HOU (68%) | +5.8 | 3–26 | 0.39 |
| 🤝 | 2026-10-11 | NYG @ WAS | NYG (53%) | +0.3 | 27–27 | 0.70 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Super Bowl odds — all 32
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Proj W-L | Division | Playoffs | #1 seed | Conf. title | Super Bowl |
|---|
| 1 | SF | NFC West | 5-0 | 13.2-3.8 | 70% | 95% | 42% | 26% | 14% |
| 2 | MIN | NFC North | 5-0 | 12.8-4.2 | 70% | 93% | 36% | 21% | 11% |
| 3 | JAX | AFC South | 4-1 | 12.1-4.9 | 82% | 91% | 24% | 20% | 10% |
| 4 | SEA | NFC West | 3-2 | 11.0-6.0 | 20% | 75% | 7% | 16% | 9% |
| 5 | BUF | AFC East | 3-1 | 11.2-5.8 | 52% | 82% | 16% | 16% | 9% |
| 6 | NE | AFC East | 3-2 | 10.6-6.4 | 45% | 78% | 11% | 13% | 6% |
| 7 | KC | AFC West | 4-0 | 11.2-5.8 | 56% | 83% | 18% | 12% | 6% |
| 8 | BAL | AFC North | 4-1 | 11.0-6.0 | 48% | 76% | 14% | 12% | 6% |
| 9 | DEN | AFC West | 3-2 | 10.5-6.5 | 38% | 74% | 9% | 11% | 5% |
| 10 | LA | NFC West | 2-2 | 9.8-7.2 | 10% | 61% | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| 11 | DET | NFC North | 3-2 | 9.8-7.2 | 15% | 56% | 4% | 6% | 3% |
| 12 | CHI | NFC North | 3-2 | 9.1-7.9 | 7% | 44% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| 13 | PIT | AFC North | 3-2 | 9.3-7.7 | 18% | 47% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| 14 | CIN | AFC North | 3-2 | 9.8-7.2 | 23% | 57% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| 15 | GB | NFC North | 3-2 | 9.1-7.9 | 8% | 42% | 1% | 4% | 2% |
| 16 | PHI | NFC East | 2-3 | 8.5-8.5 | 37% | 44% | 1% | 4% | 2% |
| 17 | NYG | NFC East | 3-1-1 | 8.3-7.7 | 41% | 47% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 18 | HOU | AFC South | 1-4 | 7.4-9.6 | 8% | 22% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 19 | CAR | NFC South | 2-2 | 7.8-9.2 | 40% | 43% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 20 | ATL | NFC South | 2-3 | 7.5-9.5 | 30% | 35% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 | IND | AFC South | 2-3 | 7.8-9.2 | 10% | 23% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 22 | CLE | AFC North | 3-2 | 8.4-8.6 | 11% | 31% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 | DAL | NFC East | 2-3 | 7.2-9.8 | 15% | 20% | <1% | 1% | 0% |
| 24 | TB | NFC South | 1-4 | 6.4-10.6 | 20% | 22% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 25 | LV | AFC West | 3-2 | 7.7-9.3 | 6% | 22% | 0% | 1% | <1% |
| 26 | WAS | NFC East | 1-3-1 | 5.7-10.3 | 7% | 10% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 27 | NYJ | AFC East | 2-3 | 6.1-10.9 | 3% | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 28 | NO | NFC South | 1-4 | 5.7-11.3 | 11% | 12% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 29 | LAC | AFC West | 0-5 | 4.3-12.7 | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30 | MIA | AFC East | 0-5 | 3.7-13.3 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 31 | ARI | NFC West | 1-4 | 4.9-12.1 | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 32 | TEN | AFC South | 0-5 | 3.0-14.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Division races
| Division | Title odds |
|---|
| AFC East | BUF 52%, NE 45%, NYJ 3%, MIA <1% |
| AFC North | BAL 48%, CIN 23%, PIT 18%, CLE 11% |
| AFC South | JAX 82%, IND 10%, HOU 8%, TEN <1% |
| AFC West | KC 56%, DEN 38%, LV 6%, LAC <1% |
| NFC East | NYG 41%, PHI 37%, DAL 15%, WAS 7% |
| NFC North | MIN 70%, DET 15%, GB 8%, CHI 7% |
| NFC South | CAR 40%, ATL 30%, TB 20%, NO 11% |
| NFC West | SF 70%, SEA 20%, LA 10%, ARI <1% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 194 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo, then the full seven-team bracket: Wild Card at the higher seed, the #1 seed off its bye, Super Bowl at a neutral site). Ties break on division / conference record, then at random — the real tiebreaker ladder is not modeled.
Betting-blind NFL Elo (margin-weighted updates, bye-week rest edge, off-season regression) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/nfl