NFL Elo Update
Run date 2026-10-20 · Week 7 · the power ratings, this week's games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo power ratings
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Pt diff | Elo | Δ pre |
|---|
| 1 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 6-0 | +67 | 1647 | +97 |
| 2 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 5-1 | +26 | 1640 | +47 |
| 3 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 3-3 | +26 | 1634 | -18 |
| 4 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 5-0 | +45 | 1621 | +78 |
| 5 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 4-2 | +23 | 1603 | +19 |
| 6 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 4-2 | -11 | 1600 | +6 |
| 7 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 4-2 | +50 | 1597 | +36 |
| 8 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 5-0 | +57 | 1579 | +88 |
| 9 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 4-2 | +31 | 1555 | +30 |
| 10 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 4-2 | +24 | 1553 | +18 |
| 11 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 2-4 | -3 | 1548 | -48 |
| 12 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 3-2 | +16 | 1544 | -1 |
| 13 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 4-2 | +9 | 1541 | +33 |
| 14 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 2-4 | +1 | 1537 | -54 |
| 15 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 4-2 | +2 | 1534 | +12 |
| 16 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 3-2 | +19 | 1517 | +40 |
| 17 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 3-2 | +23 | 1495 | +56 |
| 18 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 2-4 | -31 | 1483 | -70 |
| 19 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 4-2 | -16 | 1458 | +28 |
| 20 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 2-4 | -11 | 1449 | -25 |
| 21 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 3-2-1 | -4 | 1437 | +7 |
| 22 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 2-4 | -8 | 1430 | -30 |
| 23 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 2-4 | -20 | 1428 | -43 |
| 24 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 2-4 | -26 | 1425 | -19 |
| 25 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 3-3 | +0 | 1424 | +57 |
| 26 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 1-5 | -19 | 1424 | -57 |
| 27 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0-6 | -61 | 1410 | -113 |
| 28 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 1-4-1 | -40 | 1410 | -50 |
| 29 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 2-4 | -52 | 1391 | -12 |
| 30 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 2-4 | -10 | 1388 | +13 |
| 31 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 0-5 | -62 | 1372 | -86 |
| 32 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 1-5 | -45 | 1328 | -43 |
Divisions by average Elo
| # | Division | Avg | Preseason | In top 10 | Best | Worst |
|---|
| 1 | NFC North | 1564 | 1534 | 2 | MIN (1621) | GB (1534) |
| 2 | NFC West | 1555 | 1550 | 2 | SF (1647) | ARI (1391) |
| 3 | AFC North | 1517 | 1487 | 1 | BAL (1553) | CLE (1458) |
| 4 | AFC West | 1503 | 1494 | 2 | DEN (1600) | LAC (1410) |
| 5 | AFC East | 1501 | 1502 | 2 | BUF (1640) | MIA (1372) |
| 6 | AFC South | 1472 | 1498 | 1 | JAX (1597) | TEN (1328) |
| 7 | NFC South | 1448 | 1459 | 0 | CAR (1495) | TB (1424) |
| 8 | NFC East | 1440 | 1475 | 0 | PHI (1483) | WAS (1410) |
📅 This week's games
Thursday 2026-10-22 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | NE @ CHI | CHI | 50% | +0.3 | 21.8–22.1 | 44.0 |
Sunday 2026-10-25 · 12 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 09:30 | PIT vs. NO (N) | PIT | 64% | +5.1 | 25.2–20.1 | 45.3 |
| 13:00 | SF @ ATL | SF | 76% | +6.4 | 27.5–21.1 | 48.6 |
| 13:00 | CIN @ BAL | BAL | 52% | -2.3 | 25.9–23.6 | 49.5 |
| 13:00 | TB @ CAR | CAR | 70% | -4.6 | 25.1–20.5 | 45.6 |
| 13:00 | NYG @ HOU | HOU | 75% | -5.7 | 25.9–20.1 | 46.0 |
| 13:00 | IND @ MIN | MIN | 76% | -10.3 | 26.9–16.6 | 43.5 |
| 13:00 | MIA @ NYJ | NYJ | 62% | -1.5 | 21.9–20.4 | 42.4 |
| 13:00 | CLE @ TEN | CLE | 62% | +3.6 | 21.2–17.5 | 38.7 |
| 16:05 | DEN @ ARI | DEN | 65% | +7.7 | 26.6–18.9 | 45.6 |
| 16:25 | GB @ DET | DET | 58% | -2.9 | 26.7–23.8 | 50.5 |
| 16:25 | LA @ LV | LA | 72% | +3.4 | 25.9–22.5 | 48.4 |
| 20:20 | KC @ SEA | SEA | 55% | -4.7 | 23.6–18.9 | 42.5 |
Monday 2026-10-26 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | DAL @ PHI | DAL | 56% | -3.8 | 21.7–25.5 | 47.2 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N; a side off its bye gets the rest edge). The Elo line is the model's own spread from the home side — it has never seen a market number. Expected score is that margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each team's recent points for/against, shrunk to the league mean); read it as an average, not a literal final.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 9/14 | 64.3% | 0.7351 | +0.0301 ± 0.1175 |
| Last 30 days | 49/76 | 64.5% | 0.6331 | -0.0649 ± 0.0362 |
| Season to date | 60/93 | 64.5% | 0.6333 | -0.0582 ± 0.0310 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.55, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Picks lock the first morning a game appears on a slate.
Past week: 9/14 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Elo line | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-10-15 | SEA @ DEN | DEN (51%) | +0.9 | 17–14 | 0.68 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-18 | CHI @ ATL | CHI (52%) | +1.0 | 23–31 | 0.66 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-18 | BAL @ CLE | BAL (72%) | +3.6 | 13–10 | 1.26 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-18 | DAL @ GB | GB (55%) | -3.8 | 23–13 | 0.59 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-18 | TEN @ IND | IND (73%) | -8.2 | 20–26 | 1.31 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-18 | HOU vs. JAX (N) | JAX (72%) | -3.6 | 31–34 | 1.26 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-18 | LAC @ KC | KC (79%) | -8.5 | 22–6 | 0.23 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-18 | ARI @ LA | LA (79%) | -9.6 | 16–18 | 1.58 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-18 | BUF @ LV | BUF (75%) | +6.5 | 30–33 | 0.29 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-18 | NYJ @ NE | NE (86%) | -9.9 | 26–19 | 0.15 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-18 | NO @ NYG | NYG (60%) | -4.4 | 27–34 | 0.91 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-18 | CAR @ PHI | CAR (55%) | -2.8 | 14–25 | 0.60 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-18 | PIT @ TB | PIT (55%) | +0.7 | 19–26 | 0.60 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-19 | WAS @ SF | SF (84%) | -10.9 | 23–17 | 0.17 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Super Bowl odds — all 32
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Proj W-L | Division | Playoffs | #1 seed | Conf. title | Super Bowl |
|---|
| 1 | SF | NFC West | 6-0 | 13.5-3.5 | 85% | 98% | 50% | 30% | 16% |
| 2 | BUF | AFC East | 5-1 | 12.3-4.7 | 64% | 92% | 29% | 22% | 12% |
| 3 | MIN | NFC North | 5-0 | 12.7-4.3 | 66% | 94% | 35% | 22% | 12% |
| 4 | SEA | NFC West | 3-3 | 10.4-6.6 | 13% | 71% | 3% | 13% | 8% |
| 5 | KC | AFC West | 5-0 | 11.7-5.3 | 58% | 87% | 23% | 14% | 7% |
| 6 | JAX | AFC South | 4-2 | 11.3-5.7 | 76% | 85% | 10% | 14% | 7% |
| 7 | NE | AFC East | 4-2 | 10.8-6.2 | 35% | 80% | 12% | 13% | 7% |
| 8 | DEN | AFC West | 4-2 | 11.1-5.9 | 39% | 80% | 12% | 13% | 6% |
| 9 | DET | NFC North | 3-2 | 9.7-7.3 | 15% | 59% | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| 10 | BAL | AFC North | 4-2 | 10.1-6.9 | 29% | 60% | 5% | 7% | 3% |
| 11 | PIT | AFC North | 4-2 | 10.1-6.9 | 29% | 57% | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| 12 | CHI | NFC North | 4-2 | 9.9-7.1 | 9% | 62% | 2% | 6% | 3% |
| 13 | GB | NFC North | 4-2 | 9.6-7.4 | 9% | 55% | 2% | 5% | 2% |
| 14 | CIN | AFC North | 3-2 | 9.7-7.3 | 24% | 53% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| 15 | CAR | NFC South | 3-2 | 8.9-8.1 | 57% | 61% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| 16 | LA | NFC West | 2-4 | 8.1-8.9 | 2% | 33% | <1% | 3% | 2% |
| 17 | HOU | AFC South | 2-4 | 8.4-8.6 | 19% | 37% | <1% | 3% | 2% |
| 18 | PHI | NFC East | 2-4 | 7.6-9.4 | 35% | 37% | <1% | 3% | 1% |
| 19 | CLE | AFC North | 4-2 | 9.2-7.8 | 18% | 41% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 20 | NYG | NFC East | 3-2-1 | 7.4-8.6 | 37% | 39% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 | ATL | NFC South | 2-4 | 6.7-10.3 | 16% | 21% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 22 | NO | NFC South | 2-4 | 6.7-10.3 | 16% | 19% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 23 | DAL | NFC East | 2-4 | 6.8-10.2 | 18% | 21% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 24 | TB | NFC South | 1-5 | 5.5-11.5 | 11% | 13% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 25 | WAS | NFC East | 1-4-1 | 5.6-10.4 | 11% | 12% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 26 | IND | AFC South | 2-4 | 6.6-10.4 | 5% | 9% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 27 | LV | AFC West | 3-3 | 7.3-9.7 | 3% | 12% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 28 | ARI | NFC West | 2-4 | 6.0-11.0 | <1% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 29 | NYJ | AFC East | 2-4 | 5.8-11.2 | 1% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30 | LAC | AFC West | 0-6 | 3.9-13.1 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 31 | MIA | AFC East | 0-5 | 3.7-13.3 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 32 | TEN | AFC South | 1-5 | 4.1-12.9 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Division races
| Division | Title odds |
|---|
| AFC East | BUF 64%, NE 35%, NYJ 1%, MIA <1% |
| AFC North | PIT 29%, BAL 29%, CIN 24%, CLE 18% |
| AFC South | JAX 76%, HOU 19%, IND 5%, TEN 1% |
| AFC West | KC 58%, DEN 39%, LV 3%, LAC <1% |
| NFC East | NYG 37%, PHI 35%, DAL 18%, WAS 11% |
| NFC North | MIN 66%, DET 15%, GB 9%, CHI 9% |
| NFC South | CAR 57%, ATL 16%, NO 16%, TB 11% |
| NFC West | SF 85%, SEA 13%, LA 2%, ARI <1% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 179 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo, then the full seven-team bracket: Wild Card at the higher seed, the #1 seed off its bye, Super Bowl at a neutral site). Ties break on division / conference record, then at random — the real tiebreaker ladder is not modeled.
Betting-blind NFL Elo (margin-weighted updates, bye-week rest edge, off-season regression) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/nfl