Soccer Update

Run date 2026-08-28 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-08-28FC Bayern München v VfB Stuttgart71% / 20% / 9%FC Bayern München2–0
2026-08-291. FC Köln v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim30% / 29% / 41%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1–1
2026-08-291. FC Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt36% / 29% / 35%1. FC Union Berlin1–1
2026-08-291. FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn 0753% / 27% / 21%1. FSV Mainz 051–1
2026-08-29Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV69% / 21% / 10%Borussia Dortmund2–0
2026-08-29RB Leipzig v Borussia Mönchengladbach61% / 24% / 15%RB Leipzig2–1
2026-08-29SV 07 Elversberg v Bayer 04 Leverkusen21% / 27% / 52%Bayer 04 Leverkusen1–1
2026-08-30FC Augsburg v FC Schalke 0452% / 27% / 22%FC Augsburg1–1
2026-08-30SC Freiburg v SV Werder Bremen53% / 27% / 21%SC Freiburg1–1

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-08-28Wrexham AFC v Birmingham City FC42% / 29% / 30%Wrexham AFC1–1
2026-08-29Blackburn Rovers FC v Queens Park Rangers FC43% / 28% / 29%Blackburn Rovers FC1–1
2026-08-29Bolton Wanderers FC v Lincoln City FC63% / 23% / 14%Bolton Wanderers FC1–0
2026-08-29Bristol City FC v Portsmouth FC45% / 28% / 27%Bristol City FC1–1
2026-08-29Cardiff City FC v Sheffield United FC34% / 29% / 37%Sheffield United FC1–1
2026-08-29Charlton Athletic FC v Preston North End FC48% / 28% / 25%Charlton Athletic FC1–0
2026-08-29Derby County FC v Swansea City AFC42% / 29% / 29%Derby County FC1–1
2026-08-29Middlesbrough FC v West Bromwich Albion FC54% / 26% / 20%Middlesbrough FC1–0
2026-08-29Norwich City FC v Burnley FC56% / 26% / 19%Norwich City FC1–0
2026-08-29Southampton FC v Millwall FC47% / 28% / 25%Southampton FC1–1
2026-08-29Watford FC v West Ham United FC38% / 29% / 34%Watford FC1–0
2026-08-29Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v Stoke City FC52% / 27% / 21%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–1
2026-09-01Birmingham City FC v Southampton FC34% / 29% / 37%Southampton FC1–1
2026-09-01Lincoln City FC v Blackburn Rovers FC29% / 29% / 43%Blackburn Rovers FC1–1
2026-09-01Portsmouth FC v Derby County FC41% / 29% / 30%Portsmouth FC1–1
2026-09-01Preston North End FC v Bristol City FC40% / 29% / 31%Preston North End FC1–1
2026-09-01Sheffield United FC v Bolton Wanderers FC48% / 28% / 24%Sheffield United FC1–1
2026-09-01Stoke City FC v Norwich City FC35% / 29% / 36%Norwich City FC1–1
2026-09-01Swansea City AFC v Watford FC51% / 27% / 22%Swansea City AFC1–0
2026-09-01West Ham United FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers FC45% / 28% / 27%West Ham United FC1–1
2026-09-02Burnley FC v Middlesbrough FC28% / 29% / 43%Middlesbrough FC0–1
2026-09-02Millwall FC v Wrexham AFC55% / 26% / 19%Millwall FC1–0
2026-09-02Queens Park Rangers FC v Cardiff City FC49% / 27% / 23%Queens Park Rangers FC1–1
2026-09-02West Bromwich Albion FC v Charlton Athletic FC47% / 28% / 25%West Bromwich Albion FC1–1

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-08-28Crystal Palace FC v Manchester City FC19% / 27% / 55%Manchester City FC0–1
2026-08-29AFC Bournemouth v Everton FC50% / 27% / 23%AFC Bournemouth1–1
2026-08-29Coventry City FC v Hull City AFC47% / 28% / 25%Coventry City FC1–1
2026-08-29Liverpool FC v Nottingham Forest FC61% / 24% / 15%Liverpool FC1–0
2026-08-29Tottenham Hotspur FC v Newcastle United FC40% / 29% / 31%Tottenham Hotspur FC1–1
2026-08-30Chelsea FC v Brighton & Hove Albion FC51% / 27% / 22%Chelsea FC1–1
2026-08-30Leeds United FC v Brentford FC37% / 29% / 34%Leeds United FC1–1
2026-08-30Manchester United FC v Ipswich Town FC68% / 21% / 11%Manchester United FC2–0
2026-08-30Sunderland AFC v Fulham FC40% / 29% / 31%Sunderland AFC1–1
2026-08-31Aston Villa FC v Arsenal FC20% / 27% / 52%Arsenal FC1–1

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-08-28Deportivo Alavés v Villarreal CF30% / 29% / 41%Villarreal CF1–1
2026-08-28Real Racing Club de Santander v Elche CF48% / 28% / 24%Real Racing Club de Santander1–1
2026-08-29Levante UD v Real Betis Balompié33% / 29% / 38%Real Betis Balompié1–1
2026-08-29Real Sociedad de Fútbol v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona51% / 27% / 22%Real Sociedad de Fútbol1–0
2026-08-29Sevilla FC v Club Atlético de Madrid26% / 28% / 46%Club Atlético de Madrid1–1
2026-08-30RC Celta de Vigo v Athletic Club46% / 28% / 26%RC Celta de Vigo1–1
2026-08-30RC Deportivo La Coruña v Valencia CF38% / 29% / 33%RC Deportivo La Coruña1–1
2026-08-30Real Madrid CF v Málaga CF83% / 13% / 4%Real Madrid CF2–0
2026-08-31CA Osasuna v Getafe CF46% / 28% / 26%CA Osasuna1–1
2026-08-31FC Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano de Madrid77% / 17% / 6%FC Barcelona2–0
2026-09-03Real Sociedad de Fútbol v RC Celta de Vigo45% / 28% / 27%Real Sociedad de Fútbol1–1

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-08-28Lille OSC v Paris Saint-Germain FC18% / 26% / 56%Paris Saint-Germain FC1–1
2026-08-29AJ Auxerre v Angers SCO48% / 28% / 24%AJ Auxerre1–1
2026-08-29FC Lorient v ES Troyes AC50% / 27% / 23%FC Lorient1–1
2026-08-29Olympique Lyonnais v Havre AC61% / 24% / 15%Olympique Lyonnais1–0
2026-08-29RC Strasbourg Alsace v Racing Club de Lens37% / 29% / 34%RC Strasbourg Alsace1–1
2026-08-29Stade Brestois 29 v Toulouse FC41% / 29% / 30%Stade Brestois 291–1
2026-08-30AS Monaco FC v Olympique de Marseille44% / 28% / 28%AS Monaco FC1–1
2026-08-30Paris FC v OGC Nice45% / 28% / 27%Paris FC1–1
2026-08-30Stade Rennais FC 1901 v Le Mans FC62% / 24% / 14%Stade Rennais FC 19012–0
2026-09-03Toulouse FC v Lille OSC31% / 29% / 40%Lille OSC1–1

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-08-28AC Milan v Venezia FC69% / 21% / 10%AC Milan1–0
2026-08-29AC Monza v Udinese Calcio34% / 29% / 37%Udinese Calcio1–1
2026-08-29ACF Fiorentina v Frosinone Calcio59% / 25% / 16%ACF Fiorentina1–0
2026-08-29Juventus FC v Parma Calcio 191369% / 21% / 10%Juventus FC1–0
2026-08-29US Sassuolo Calcio v Torino FC43% / 28% / 28%US Sassuolo Calcio1–1
2026-08-30Cagliari Calcio v FC Internazionale Milano10% / 22% / 67%FC Internazionale Milano0–1
2026-08-30SS Lazio v Genoa CFC55% / 26% / 19%SS Lazio1–0
2026-08-30SSC Napoli v Como 190750% / 27% / 23%SSC Napoli1–0
2026-08-31Atalanta BC v Bologna FC 190955% / 26% / 19%Atalanta BC1–0
2026-08-31US Lecce v AS Roma16% / 26% / 58%AS Roma0–1

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days3148.4%1.0225
Last 30 days3148.4%1.0225
Season to date3148.4%1.0225

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Championship1136.4%1.1401
Premier League955.6%1.0506
La Liga540.0%1.0035
Serie A666.7%0.7807

Past week: 15/31 picks correct

DateLeagueResultPickLog loss
❌2026-08-22ChampionshipBirmingham City FC 2–2 Bristol City FCH1.27
❌2026-08-22ChampionshipBlackburn Rovers FC 2–1 Middlesbrough FCA1.29
❌2026-08-22ChampionshipDerby County FC 2–2 Cardiff City FCH1.33
✅2026-08-22ChampionshipLincoln City FC 1–3 Portsmouth FCA0.87
✅2026-08-22ChampionshipMillwall FC 3–0 Norwich City FCH0.78
✅2026-08-22ChampionshipPreston North End FC 1–3 Wolverhampton Wanderers FCA0.99
❌2026-08-22ChampionshipQueens Park Rangers FC 0–0 Bolton Wanderers FCH1.24
✅2026-08-22ChampionshipSouthampton FC 3–1 Stoke City FCH0.47
❌2026-08-22ChampionshipSwansea City AFC 0–0 Sheffield United FCH1.25
❌2026-08-22ChampionshipWest Ham United FC 1–2 Charlton Athletic FCH1.78
❌2026-08-22ChampionshipWrexham AFC 1–1 Watford FCH1.27
✅2026-08-22Premier LeagueBrentford FC 3–0 Tottenham Hotspur FCH0.78
✅2026-08-22Premier LeagueEverton FC 2–0 Crystal Palace FCH0.85
❌2026-08-22Premier LeagueHull City AFC 2–0 Manchester United FCA1.90
❌2026-08-22Premier LeagueIpswich Town FC 2–1 Sunderland AFCA1.06
❌2026-08-22Premier LeagueNottingham Forest FC 0–1 Leeds United FCH1.50
✅2026-08-23Premier LeagueBrighton & Hove Albion FC 4–0 Aston Villa FCH0.89
✅2026-08-23Premier LeagueManchester City FC 2–1 AFC BournemouthH0.39
❌2026-08-23Premier LeagueNewcastle United FC 2–2 Liverpool FCA1.25
❌2026-08-23La LigaClub Atlético de Madrid 2–2 Villarreal CFH1.34
✅2026-08-23La LigaElche CF 0–5 FC BarcelonaA0.38
✅2026-08-23La LigaGetafe CF 1–0 Real Racing Club de SantanderH0.76
✅2026-08-23Serie AAtalanta BC 2–1 US Sassuolo CalcioH0.45
✅2026-08-23Serie AFrosinone Calcio 0–1 Juventus FCA0.47
✅2026-08-23Serie ATorino FC 1–2 AC MilanA0.65
❌2026-08-23Serie AVenezia FC 0–2 US LecceH1.37
✅2026-08-24Premier LeagueFulham FC 2–3 Chelsea FCA0.83
❌2026-08-24La LigaCA Osasuna 0–0 Levante UDH1.29
❌2026-08-24La LigaMálaga CF 1–1 RC Deportivo La CoruñaH1.25
✅2026-08-24Serie AAS Roma 4–0 ACF FiorentinaH0.55
❌2026-08-24Serie ABologna FC 1909 0–1 SS LazioH1.18

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Arsenal FC 52% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Arsenal FC381.91.952%95%3%<1%
2Manchester City FC378.22.531%89%8%<1%
3Liverpool FC168.34.88%56%20%<1%
4Manchester United FC059.17.92%24%20%2%
5Chelsea FC358.18.21%22%18%2%
6Brighton & Hove Albion FC357.88.32%19%19%2%
7AFC Bournemouth057.08.61%20%18%3%
8Aston Villa FC057.08.61%18%18%2%
9Brentford FC355.49.21%16%14%4%
10Newcastle United FC154.19.71%12%16%4%
11Everton FC350.511.1<1%7%10%6%
12Nottingham Forest FC048.212.01%5%9%12%
13Leeds United FC348.012.1<1%5%7%11%
14Fulham FC047.512.4<1%5%7%13%
15Crystal Palace FC045.813.0<1%3%5%16%
16Tottenham Hotspur FC044.013.6<1%2%5%23%
17Sunderland AFC040.015.1<1%1%2%32%
18Hull City AFC335.116.8<1%<1%<1%52%
19Ipswich Town FC334.417.0<1%<1%<1%55%
20Coventry City FC033.217.3<1%<1%<1%59%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 67% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München073.91.667%96%2%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund062.04.012%68%16%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen059.84.710%58%20%1%
4VfB Stuttgart056.25.94%42%23%1%
5RB Leipzig055.75.94%42%22%2%
6TSG 1899 Hoffenheim049.78.21%21%19%6%
71. FSV Mainz 05046.89.4<1%13%15%8%
8SC Freiburg046.79.40%14%16%9%
9Eintracht Frankfurt046.19.7<1%10%16%9%
10Borussia Mönchengladbach042.211.3<1%7%10%20%
11FC Augsburg041.711.5<1%6%7%21%
121. FC Union Berlin040.412.0<1%5%7%26%
13Hamburger SV040.212.1<1%4%6%25%
14SC Paderborn 07040.412.1<1%4%6%24%
15SV Werder Bremen039.212.5<1%4%6%29%
16SV 07 Elversberg039.112.7<1%4%5%30%
17FC Schalke 04035.414.0<1%2%3%44%
181. FC Köln035.214.1<1%1%2%45%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 50% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona384.71.750%98%2%<1%
2Real Madrid CF383.01.942%98%1%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid470.54.05%71%19%<1%
4Villarreal CF264.15.52%46%26%<1%
5Real Betis Balompié362.06.21%35%28%<1%
6RC Celta de Vigo152.69.7<1%9%17%5%
7Sevilla FC650.010.8<1%7%13%8%
8Real Sociedad de Fútbol050.010.8<1%6%14%9%
9Athletic Club050.010.8<1%5%13%8%
10Valencia CF149.911.0<1%6%13%9%
11Rayo Vallecano de Madrid147.212.1<1%3%8%14%
12Getafe CF346.912.1<1%4%7%13%
13CA Osasuna146.912.2<1%4%8%15%
14Deportivo Alavés446.312.4<1%2%8%16%
15RCD Espanyol de Barcelona344.713.1<1%2%7%19%
16Real Racing Club de Santander143.713.6<1%2%5%23%
17Levante UD142.214.3<1%0%4%26%
18Elche CF141.214.6<1%1%3%31%
19RC Deportivo La Coruña239.115.6<1%0%2%40%
20Málaga CF133.317.5<1%<1%<1%64%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 58% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano384.51.858%95%4%<1%
2SSC Napoli372.84.210%62%21%<1%
3AS Roma372.54.212%61%22%<1%
4Juventus FC371.54.58%57%22%<1%
5Atalanta BC367.85.45%40%28%<1%
6AC Milan367.55.55%40%29%<1%
7SS Lazio361.17.31%20%22%<1%
8Como 1907160.47.51%17%20%<1%
9Bologna FC 1909053.19.9<1%5%12%2%
10ACF Fiorentina051.410.5<1%2%8%4%
11Udinese Calcio145.712.4<1%1%3%10%
12Torino FC042.113.7<1%0%2%14%
13US Sassuolo Calcio041.713.8<1%<1%2%17%
14Genoa CFC040.414.3<1%1%2%22%
15Cagliari Calcio339.614.6<1%<1%1%24%
16US Lecce337.415.4<1%<1%1%32%
17Parma Calcio 1913035.915.8<1%<1%<1%39%
18Venezia FC034.916.1<1%<1%<1%42%
19Frosinone Calcio034.016.5<1%<1%<1%46%
20AC Monza033.516.6<1%<1%<1%49%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 66% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC174.01.666%96%2%<1%
2Racing Club de Lens360.14.89%55%20%<1%
3Lille OSC358.55.27%50%22%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais357.45.56%44%22%<1%
5Olympique de Marseille356.35.83%40%23%0%
6AS Monaco FC355.96.05%38%23%1%
7Stade Rennais FC 1901153.17.12%29%21%2%
8RC Strasbourg Alsace048.48.71%15%17%6%
9FC Lorient145.210.0<1%10%10%8%
10Paris FC144.310.3<1%6%10%10%
11Toulouse FC042.511.0<1%6%7%14%
12OGC Nice142.211.3<1%5%7%14%
13Stade Brestois 29140.911.7<1%4%5%17%
14AJ Auxerre038.412.6<1%2%4%25%
15ES Troyes AC133.714.3<1%1%1%45%
16Havre AC033.414.3<1%1%1%43%
17Angers SCO031.215.1<1%<1%1%56%
18Le Mans FC129.915.5<1%<1%1%59%

MLS

No 2026 fixtures published upstream yet.

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (1,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer