Soccer Update

Run date 2026-08-31 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-08-31Aston Villa FC v Arsenal FC20% / 27% / 52%Arsenal FC1–1
2026-09-04Ipswich Town FC v Liverpool FC17% / 26% / 57%Liverpool FC0–1
2026-09-05Brentford FC v Sunderland AFC54% / 26% / 19%Brentford FC1–0
2026-09-05Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Leeds United FC53% / 26% / 20%Brighton & Hove Albion FC1–0
2026-09-05Fulham FC v Crystal Palace FC43% / 28% / 28%Fulham FC1–1
2026-09-05Hull City AFC v Aston Villa FC24% / 28% / 48%Aston Villa FC1–1
2026-09-05Manchester City FC v Coventry City FC79% / 16% / 5%Manchester City FC2–0
2026-09-05Newcastle United FC v AFC Bournemouth43% / 28% / 29%Newcastle United FC1–1
2026-09-05Nottingham Forest FC v Tottenham Hotspur FC45% / 28% / 27%Nottingham Forest FC1–1
2026-09-06Arsenal FC v Chelsea FC63% / 23% / 14%Arsenal FC2–0
2026-09-06Everton FC v Manchester United FC33% / 29% / 38%Manchester United FC1–1

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-08-31CA Osasuna v Getafe CF46% / 28% / 26%CA Osasuna1–1
2026-08-31FC Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano de Madrid77% / 17% / 6%FC Barcelona2–0
2026-09-03Real Sociedad de Fútbol v RC Celta de Vigo45% / 28% / 27%Real Sociedad de Fútbol1–1
2026-09-04Real Betis Balompié v Real Madrid CF20% / 27% / 53%Real Madrid CF1–1
2026-09-05Athletic Club v Club Atlético de Madrid29% / 29% / 42%Club Atlético de Madrid1–1
2026-09-05Rayo Vallecano de Madrid v Real Racing Club de Santander48% / 28% / 24%Rayo Vallecano de Madrid1–1
2026-09-05Villarreal CF v RC Deportivo La Coruña64% / 23% / 13%Villarreal CF2–0
2026-09-06Deportivo Alavés v CA Osasuna44% / 28% / 28%Deportivo Alavés1–1
2026-09-06Málaga CF v Levante UD39% / 29% / 32%Málaga CF1–1
2026-09-06RCD Espanyol de Barcelona v Sevilla FC44% / 28% / 28%RCD Espanyol de Barcelona1–1
2026-09-06Valencia CF v FC Barcelona15% / 25% / 60%FC Barcelona0–1

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-08-31Atalanta BC v Bologna FC 190955% / 26% / 19%Atalanta BC1–0
2026-08-31US Lecce v AS Roma16% / 26% / 58%AS Roma0–1
2026-09-04Genoa CFC v Como 190726% / 28% / 46%Como 19070–1
2026-09-05ACF Fiorentina v Torino FC52% / 27% / 22%ACF Fiorentina1–0
2026-09-05AS Roma v Atalanta BC47% / 28% / 25%AS Roma1–0
2026-09-05FC Internazionale Milano v SSC Napoli57% / 25% / 17%FC Internazionale Milano1–0
2026-09-06Bologna FC 1909 v US Sassuolo Calcio51% / 27% / 22%Bologna FC 19091–0
2026-09-06Frosinone Calcio v Venezia FC40% / 29% / 31%Frosinone Calcio1–1
2026-09-06Juventus FC v AC Milan45% / 28% / 27%Juventus FC1–1
2026-09-06Parma Calcio 1913 v AC Monza47% / 28% / 25%Parma Calcio 19131–0

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-01Birmingham City FC v Southampton FC34% / 29% / 37%Southampton FC1–1
2026-09-01Lincoln City FC v Blackburn Rovers FC29% / 29% / 43%Blackburn Rovers FC1–1
2026-09-01Portsmouth FC v Derby County FC41% / 29% / 30%Portsmouth FC1–1
2026-09-01Preston North End FC v Bristol City FC40% / 29% / 31%Preston North End FC1–1
2026-09-01Sheffield United FC v Bolton Wanderers FC48% / 28% / 24%Sheffield United FC1–1
2026-09-01Stoke City FC v Norwich City FC35% / 29% / 36%Norwich City FC1–1
2026-09-01Swansea City AFC v Watford FC51% / 27% / 22%Swansea City AFC1–0
2026-09-01West Ham United FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers FC45% / 28% / 27%West Ham United FC1–1
2026-09-02Burnley FC v Middlesbrough FC28% / 29% / 43%Middlesbrough FC0–1
2026-09-02Millwall FC v Wrexham AFC55% / 26% / 19%Millwall FC1–0
2026-09-02Queens Park Rangers FC v Cardiff City FC49% / 27% / 23%Queens Park Rangers FC1–1
2026-09-02West Bromwich Albion FC v Charlton Athletic FC47% / 28% / 25%West Bromwich Albion FC1–1
2026-09-05Burnley FC v Bristol City FC38% / 29% / 32%Burnley FC1–1
2026-09-05Lincoln City FC v Southampton FC17% / 26% / 57%Southampton FC0–1
2026-09-05Millwall FC v Bolton Wanderers FC54% / 26% / 20%Millwall FC1–0
2026-09-05Portsmouth FC v Cardiff City FC49% / 27% / 24%Portsmouth FC1–0
2026-09-05Preston North End FC v Blackburn Rovers FC41% / 29% / 30%Preston North End FC1–1
2026-09-05Queens Park Rangers FC v Middlesbrough FC33% / 29% / 38%Middlesbrough FC1–1
2026-09-05Sheffield United FC v Norwich City FC44% / 28% / 28%Sheffield United FC1–1
2026-09-05Stoke City FC v Charlton Athletic FC42% / 29% / 30%Stoke City FC1–1
2026-09-05Swansea City AFC v Wrexham AFC49% / 27% / 24%Swansea City AFC1–1
2026-09-05West Bromwich Albion FC v Watford FC48% / 28% / 25%West Bromwich Albion FC1–0
2026-09-05West Ham United FC v Derby County FC47% / 28% / 25%West Ham United FC1–1
2026-09-06Birmingham City FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers FC43% / 28% / 29%Birmingham City FC1–0

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-03Toulouse FC v Lille OSC31% / 29% / 40%Lille OSC1–1
2026-09-04Olympique Lyonnais v AJ Auxerre58% / 25% / 17%Olympique Lyonnais1–0
2026-09-04Paris Saint-Germain FC v AS Monaco FC71% / 20% / 9%Paris Saint-Germain FC2–0
2026-09-05Havre AC v Stade Brestois 2938% / 29% / 33%Havre AC1–1
2026-09-05OGC Nice v Le Mans FC54% / 26% / 20%OGC Nice1–0
2026-09-05Racing Club de Lens v FC Lorient54% / 26% / 20%Racing Club de Lens1–0
2026-09-06Angers SCO v Stade Rennais FC 190126% / 29% / 45%Stade Rennais FC 19011–1
2026-09-06ES Troyes AC v RC Strasbourg Alsace31% / 29% / 40%RC Strasbourg Alsace1–1
2026-09-06Olympique de Marseille v Paris FC51% / 27% / 22%Olympique de Marseille1–1

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-04VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln66% / 22% / 12%VfB Stuttgart2–0
2026-09-05Bayer 04 Leverkusen v 1. FC Union Berlin67% / 22% / 11%Bayer 04 Leverkusen2–0
2026-09-05Borussia Mönchengladbach v SV 07 Elversberg49% / 28% / 24%Borussia Mönchengladbach1–1
2026-09-05FC Schalke 04 v FC Bayern München7% / 19% / 75%FC Bayern München0–2
2026-09-05SC Paderborn 07 v SC Freiburg35% / 29% / 36%SC Freiburg1–1
2026-09-05SV Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig25% / 28% / 47%RB Leipzig1–1
2026-09-05TSG 1899 Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund29% / 29% / 42%Borussia Dortmund1–1
2026-09-06Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Augsburg51% / 27% / 22%Eintracht Frankfurt1–1
2026-09-06Hamburger SV v 1. FSV Mainz 0538% / 29% / 33%Hamburger SV1–1

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days540.0%1.0223
Last 30 days3148.4%1.0225
Season to date3148.4%1.0225

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Championship1136.4%1.1401
Premier League955.6%1.0506
La Liga540.0%1.0035
Serie A666.7%0.7807

Past week: 2/5 picks correct

DateLeagueResultPickLog loss
✅2026-08-24Premier LeagueFulham FC 2–3 Chelsea FCA0.83
❌2026-08-24La LigaCA Osasuna 0–0 Levante UDH1.29
❌2026-08-24La LigaMálaga CF 1–1 RC Deportivo La CoruñaH1.25
✅2026-08-24Serie AAS Roma 4–0 ACF FiorentinaH0.55
❌2026-08-24Serie ABologna FC 1909 0–1 SS LazioH1.18

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Arsenal FC 52% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Arsenal FC381.91.952%95%3%<1%
2Manchester City FC378.22.531%89%8%<1%
3Liverpool FC168.34.88%56%20%<1%
4Manchester United FC059.17.92%24%20%2%
5Chelsea FC358.18.21%22%18%2%
6Brighton & Hove Albion FC357.88.32%19%19%2%
7AFC Bournemouth057.08.61%20%18%3%
8Aston Villa FC057.08.61%18%18%2%
9Brentford FC355.49.21%16%14%4%
10Newcastle United FC154.19.71%12%16%4%
11Everton FC350.511.1<1%7%10%6%
12Nottingham Forest FC048.212.01%5%9%12%
13Leeds United FC348.012.1<1%5%7%11%
14Fulham FC047.512.4<1%5%7%13%
15Crystal Palace FC045.813.0<1%3%5%16%
16Tottenham Hotspur FC044.013.6<1%2%5%23%
17Sunderland AFC040.015.1<1%1%2%32%
18Hull City AFC335.116.8<1%<1%<1%52%
19Ipswich Town FC334.417.0<1%<1%<1%55%
20Coventry City FC033.217.3<1%<1%<1%59%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 67% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München073.91.667%96%2%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund062.04.012%68%16%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen059.84.710%58%20%1%
4VfB Stuttgart056.25.94%42%23%1%
5RB Leipzig055.75.94%42%22%2%
6TSG 1899 Hoffenheim049.78.21%21%19%6%
71. FSV Mainz 05046.89.4<1%13%15%8%
8SC Freiburg046.79.40%14%16%9%
9Eintracht Frankfurt046.19.7<1%10%16%9%
10Borussia Mönchengladbach042.211.3<1%7%10%20%
11FC Augsburg041.711.5<1%6%7%21%
121. FC Union Berlin040.412.0<1%5%7%26%
13Hamburger SV040.212.1<1%4%6%25%
14SC Paderborn 07040.412.1<1%4%6%24%
15SV Werder Bremen039.212.5<1%4%6%29%
16SV 07 Elversberg039.112.7<1%4%5%30%
17FC Schalke 04035.414.0<1%2%3%44%
181. FC Köln035.214.1<1%1%2%45%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 50% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona384.71.750%98%2%<1%
2Real Madrid CF383.01.942%98%1%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid470.54.05%71%19%<1%
4Villarreal CF264.15.52%46%26%<1%
5Real Betis Balompié362.06.21%35%28%<1%
6RC Celta de Vigo152.69.7<1%9%17%5%
7Sevilla FC650.010.8<1%7%13%8%
8Real Sociedad de Fútbol050.010.8<1%6%14%9%
9Athletic Club050.010.8<1%5%13%8%
10Valencia CF149.911.0<1%6%13%9%
11Rayo Vallecano de Madrid147.212.1<1%3%8%14%
12Getafe CF346.912.1<1%4%7%13%
13CA Osasuna146.912.2<1%4%8%15%
14Deportivo Alavés446.312.4<1%2%8%16%
15RCD Espanyol de Barcelona344.713.1<1%2%7%19%
16Real Racing Club de Santander143.713.6<1%2%5%23%
17Levante UD142.214.3<1%0%4%26%
18Elche CF141.214.6<1%1%3%31%
19RC Deportivo La Coruña239.115.6<1%0%2%40%
20Málaga CF133.317.5<1%<1%<1%64%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 58% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano384.51.858%95%4%<1%
2SSC Napoli372.84.210%62%21%<1%
3AS Roma372.54.212%61%22%<1%
4Juventus FC371.54.58%57%22%<1%
5Atalanta BC367.85.45%40%28%<1%
6AC Milan367.55.55%40%29%<1%
7SS Lazio361.17.31%20%22%<1%
8Como 1907160.47.51%17%20%<1%
9Bologna FC 1909053.19.9<1%5%12%2%
10ACF Fiorentina051.410.5<1%2%8%4%
11Udinese Calcio145.712.4<1%1%3%10%
12Torino FC042.113.7<1%0%2%14%
13US Sassuolo Calcio041.713.8<1%<1%2%17%
14Genoa CFC040.414.3<1%1%2%22%
15Cagliari Calcio339.614.6<1%<1%1%24%
16US Lecce337.415.4<1%<1%1%32%
17Parma Calcio 1913035.915.8<1%<1%<1%39%
18Venezia FC034.916.1<1%<1%<1%42%
19Frosinone Calcio034.016.5<1%<1%<1%46%
20AC Monza033.516.6<1%<1%<1%49%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 66% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC174.01.666%96%2%<1%
2Racing Club de Lens360.14.89%55%20%<1%
3Lille OSC358.55.27%50%22%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais357.45.56%44%22%<1%
5Olympique de Marseille356.35.83%40%23%0%
6AS Monaco FC355.96.05%38%23%1%
7Stade Rennais FC 1901153.17.12%29%21%2%
8RC Strasbourg Alsace048.48.71%15%17%6%
9FC Lorient145.210.0<1%10%10%8%
10Paris FC144.310.3<1%6%10%10%
11Toulouse FC042.511.0<1%6%7%14%
12OGC Nice142.211.3<1%5%7%14%
13Stade Brestois 29140.911.7<1%4%5%17%
14AJ Auxerre038.412.6<1%2%4%25%
15ES Troyes AC133.714.3<1%1%1%45%
16Havre AC033.414.3<1%1%1%43%
17Angers SCO031.215.1<1%<1%1%56%
18Le Mans FC129.915.5<1%<1%1%59%

MLS

No 2026 fixtures published upstream yet.

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (1,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer