Soccer Update

Run date 2026-09-01 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-01Birmingham City FC v Southampton FC34% / 29% / 38%Southampton FC1–1
2026-09-01Lincoln City FC v Blackburn Rovers FC30% / 29% / 41%Blackburn Rovers FC1–1
2026-09-01Portsmouth FC v Derby County FC42% / 29% / 29%Portsmouth FC1–1
2026-09-01Preston North End FC v Bristol City FC39% / 29% / 32%Preston North End FC1–1
2026-09-01Sheffield United FC v Bolton Wanderers FC49% / 27% / 23%Sheffield United FC1–1
2026-09-01Stoke City FC v Norwich City FC34% / 29% / 37%Norwich City FC1–1
2026-09-01Swansea City AFC v Watford FC52% / 27% / 21%Swansea City AFC1–0
2026-09-01West Ham United FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers FC44% / 28% / 27%West Ham United FC1–1
2026-09-02Burnley FC v Middlesbrough FC27% / 29% / 45%Middlesbrough FC0–1
2026-09-02Millwall FC v Wrexham AFC55% / 26% / 19%Millwall FC1–0
2026-09-02Queens Park Rangers FC v Cardiff City FC50% / 27% / 23%Queens Park Rangers FC1–1
2026-09-02West Bromwich Albion FC v Charlton Athletic FC46% / 28% / 26%West Bromwich Albion FC1–1
2026-09-05Burnley FC v Bristol City FC37% / 29% / 34%Burnley FC1–1
2026-09-05Lincoln City FC v Southampton FC17% / 26% / 57%Southampton FC0–1
2026-09-05Millwall FC v Bolton Wanderers FC54% / 26% / 20%Millwall FC1–0
2026-09-05Portsmouth FC v Cardiff City FC48% / 28% / 24%Portsmouth FC1–1
2026-09-05Preston North End FC v Blackburn Rovers FC42% / 29% / 30%Preston North End FC1–1
2026-09-05Queens Park Rangers FC v Middlesbrough FC33% / 29% / 38%Middlesbrough FC1–1
2026-09-05Sheffield United FC v Norwich City FC44% / 28% / 28%Sheffield United FC1–1
2026-09-05Stoke City FC v Charlton Athletic FC40% / 29% / 31%Stoke City FC1–1
2026-09-05Swansea City AFC v Wrexham AFC51% / 27% / 22%Swansea City AFC1–0
2026-09-05West Bromwich Albion FC v Watford FC47% / 28% / 25%West Bromwich Albion FC1–1
2026-09-05West Ham United FC v Derby County FC49% / 28% / 24%West Ham United FC1–1
2026-09-06Birmingham City FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers FC43% / 28% / 29%Birmingham City FC1–0

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-03Real Sociedad de Fútbol v RC Celta de Vigo47% / 28% / 25%Real Sociedad de Fútbol1–1
2026-09-04Real Betis Balompié v Real Madrid CF20% / 27% / 54%Real Madrid CF1–1
2026-09-05Athletic Club v Club Atlético de Madrid29% / 29% / 42%Club Atlético de Madrid1–1
2026-09-05Rayo Vallecano de Madrid v Real Racing Club de Santander48% / 28% / 24%Rayo Vallecano de Madrid1–1
2026-09-05Villarreal CF v RC Deportivo La Coruña63% / 23% / 14%Villarreal CF1–0
2026-09-06Deportivo Alavés v CA Osasuna44% / 28% / 28%Deportivo Alavés1–1
2026-09-06Málaga CF v Levante UD38% / 29% / 33%Málaga CF1–1
2026-09-06RCD Espanyol de Barcelona v Sevilla FC44% / 28% / 28%RCD Espanyol de Barcelona1–1
2026-09-06Valencia CF v FC Barcelona14% / 25% / 61%FC Barcelona0–1
2026-09-07Elche CF v Real Sociedad de Fútbol38% / 29% / 33%Elche CF1–1
2026-09-07Getafe CF v RC Celta de Vigo42% / 29% / 29%Getafe CF1–1

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-03Toulouse FC v Lille OSC31% / 29% / 40%Lille OSC1–1
2026-09-04Olympique Lyonnais v AJ Auxerre58% / 25% / 17%Olympique Lyonnais1–0
2026-09-04Paris Saint-Germain FC v AS Monaco FC71% / 20% / 9%Paris Saint-Germain FC2–0
2026-09-05Havre AC v Stade Brestois 2938% / 29% / 33%Havre AC1–1
2026-09-05OGC Nice v Le Mans FC54% / 26% / 20%OGC Nice1–0
2026-09-05Racing Club de Lens v FC Lorient54% / 26% / 20%Racing Club de Lens1–0
2026-09-06Angers SCO v Stade Rennais FC 190126% / 29% / 45%Stade Rennais FC 19011–1
2026-09-06ES Troyes AC v RC Strasbourg Alsace31% / 29% / 40%RC Strasbourg Alsace1–1
2026-09-06Olympique de Marseille v Paris FC51% / 27% / 22%Olympique de Marseille1–1

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-04VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln63% / 23% / 14%VfB Stuttgart2–1
2026-09-05Bayer 04 Leverkusen v 1. FC Union Berlin64% / 23% / 13%Bayer 04 Leverkusen2–1
2026-09-05Borussia Mönchengladbach v SV 07 Elversberg48% / 28% / 25%Borussia Mönchengladbach1–1
2026-09-05FC Schalke 04 v FC Bayern München8% / 20% / 72%FC Bayern München0–2
2026-09-05SC Paderborn 07 v SC Freiburg35% / 29% / 36%SC Freiburg1–1
2026-09-05SV Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig26% / 28% / 46%RB Leipzig1–1
2026-09-05TSG 1899 Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund30% / 29% / 41%Borussia Dortmund1–1
2026-09-06Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Augsburg49% / 27% / 23%Eintracht Frankfurt1–1
2026-09-06Hamburger SV v 1. FSV Mainz 0538% / 29% / 33%Hamburger SV1–1

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-04Ipswich Town FC v Liverpool FC17% / 26% / 57%Liverpool FC0–1
2026-09-05Brentford FC v Sunderland AFC54% / 26% / 20%Brentford FC1–0
2026-09-05Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Leeds United FC53% / 27% / 21%Brighton & Hove Albion FC1–1
2026-09-05Fulham FC v Crystal Palace FC43% / 28% / 28%Fulham FC1–1
2026-09-05Hull City AFC v Aston Villa FC25% / 28% / 47%Aston Villa FC1–1
2026-09-05Manchester City FC v Coventry City FC80% / 16% / 5%Manchester City FC2–0
2026-09-05Newcastle United FC v AFC Bournemouth44% / 28% / 28%Newcastle United FC1–1
2026-09-05Nottingham Forest FC v Tottenham Hotspur FC46% / 28% / 26%Nottingham Forest FC1–1
2026-09-06Arsenal FC v Chelsea FC63% / 23% / 14%Arsenal FC2–0
2026-09-06Everton FC v Manchester United FC33% / 29% / 38%Manchester United FC1–1

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-04Genoa CFC v Como 190725% / 28% / 47%Como 19070–1
2026-09-05ACF Fiorentina v Torino FC51% / 27% / 22%ACF Fiorentina1–0
2026-09-05AS Roma v Atalanta BC47% / 28% / 25%AS Roma1–0
2026-09-05FC Internazionale Milano v SSC Napoli58% / 25% / 17%FC Internazionale Milano1–0
2026-09-06Bologna FC 1909 v US Sassuolo Calcio50% / 27% / 23%Bologna FC 19091–0
2026-09-06Frosinone Calcio v Venezia FC42% / 29% / 29%Frosinone Calcio1–1
2026-09-06Juventus FC v AC Milan45% / 28% / 27%Juventus FC1–1
2026-09-06Parma Calcio 1913 v AC Monza47% / 28% / 25%Parma Calcio 19131–0
2026-09-07Cagliari Calcio v US Lecce46% / 28% / 26%Cagliari Calcio1–1
2026-09-07Udinese Calcio v SS Lazio33% / 29% / 38%SS Lazio1–1

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days5560.0%0.8911
Last 30 days8655.8%0.9385
Season to date8655.8%0.9385

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga955.6%0.8712
Championship2343.5%1.0805
Premier League1952.6%1.0098
La Liga1957.9%0.8519
Serie A1675.0%0.7903

Past week: 33/55 picks correct

DateLeagueResultPickLog loss
❌2026-08-25La LigaValencia CF 0–1 Real Betis BalompiéH1.10
✅2026-08-26La LigaReal Madrid CF 4–1 Real Sociedad de FútbolH0.27
✅2026-08-27La LigaFC Barcelona 2–0 Athletic ClubH0.28
❌2026-08-27La LigaRC Celta de Vigo 1–2 CA OsasunaH1.49
✅2026-08-28BundesligaFC Bayern München 5–1 VfB StuttgartH0.34
❌2026-08-28ChampionshipWrexham AFC 1–2 Birmingham City FCH1.21
✅2026-08-28Premier LeagueCrystal Palace FC 1–4 Manchester City FCA0.60
❌2026-08-28La LigaDeportivo Alavés 1–0 Villarreal CFA1.20
✅2026-08-28La LigaReal Racing Club de Santander 3–2 Elche CFH0.73
✅2026-08-28Serie AAC Milan 2–0 Venezia FCH0.38
❌2026-08-29Bundesliga1. FC Köln 3–2 TSG 1899 HoffenheimA1.20
❌2026-08-29Bundesliga1. FC Union Berlin 3–3 Eintracht FrankfurtH1.24
❌2026-08-29Bundesliga1. FSV Mainz 05 0–0 SC Paderborn 07H1.32
✅2026-08-29BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburger SVH0.37
✅2026-08-29BundesligaRB Leipzig 3–0 Borussia MönchengladbachH0.49
❌2026-08-29BundesligaSV 07 Elversberg 3–2 Bayer 04 LeverkusenA1.58
❌2026-08-29ChampionshipBlackburn Rovers FC 1–2 Queens Park Rangers FCH1.25
❌2026-08-29ChampionshipBolton Wanderers FC 0–1 Lincoln City FCH1.98
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipBristol City FC 2–1 Portsmouth FCH0.80
❌2026-08-29ChampionshipCardiff City FC 2–2 Sheffield United FCA1.24
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipCharlton Athletic FC 1–0 Preston North End FCH0.74
❌2026-08-29ChampionshipDerby County FC 0–3 Swansea City AFCH1.23
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipMiddlesbrough FC 3–1 West Bromwich Albion FCH0.61
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipNorwich City FC 4–1 Burnley FCH0.59
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipSouthampton FC 5–1 Millwall FCH0.76
❌2026-08-29ChampionshipWatford FC 1–1 West Ham United FCH1.25
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipWolverhampton Wanderers FC 4–1 Stoke City FCH0.65
❌2026-08-29Premier LeagueAFC Bournemouth 1–1 Everton FCH1.30
❌2026-08-29Premier LeagueCoventry City FC 0–1 Hull City AFCH1.37
❌2026-08-29Premier LeagueLiverpool FC 2–2 Nottingham Forest FCH1.42
❌2026-08-29Premier LeagueTottenham Hotspur FC 0–2 Newcastle United FCH1.18
❌2026-08-29La LigaLevante UD 5–2 Real Betis BalompiéA1.12
✅2026-08-29La LigaReal Sociedad de Fútbol 2–1 RCD Espanyol de BarcelonaH0.66
✅2026-08-29La LigaSevilla FC 1–3 Club Atlético de MadridA0.77
✅2026-08-29Serie AAC Monza 2–3 Udinese CalcioA0.99
❌2026-08-29Serie AACF Fiorentina 0–3 Frosinone CalcioH1.81
✅2026-08-29Serie AJuventus FC 2–0 Parma Calcio 1913H0.36
✅2026-08-29Serie AUS Sassuolo Calcio 2–1 Torino FCH0.84
✅2026-08-30BundesligaFC Augsburg 3–0 FC Schalke 04H0.66
✅2026-08-30BundesligaSC Freiburg 4–1 SV Werder BremenH0.64
✅2026-08-30Premier LeagueChelsea FC 4–3 Brighton & Hove Albion FCH0.67
❌2026-08-30Premier LeagueLeeds United FC 1–1 Brentford FCH1.24
✅2026-08-30Premier LeagueManchester United FC 5–2 Ipswich Town FCH0.39
✅2026-08-30Premier LeagueSunderland AFC 1–0 Fulham FCH0.92
❌2026-08-30La LigaRC Celta de Vigo 0–2 Athletic ClubH1.34
✅2026-08-30La LigaRC Deportivo La Coruña 3–1 Valencia CFH0.98
✅2026-08-30La LigaReal Madrid CF 4–0 Málaga CFH0.18
✅2026-08-30Serie ACagliari Calcio 0–1 FC Internazionale MilanoA0.39
✅2026-08-30Serie ASS Lazio 1–0 Genoa CFCH0.60
❌2026-08-30Serie ASSC Napoli 1–2 Como 1907H1.46
✅2026-08-31Premier LeagueAston Villa FC 0–1 Arsenal FCA0.64
✅2026-08-31La LigaCA Osasuna 1–0 Getafe CFH0.77
✅2026-08-31La LigaFC Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Vallecano de MadridH0.26
✅2026-08-31Serie AAtalanta BC 1–0 Bologna FC 1909H0.60
✅2026-08-31Serie AUS Lecce 0–4 AS RomaA0.54

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Arsenal FC 56% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Arsenal FC683.51.856%96%4%<1%
2Manchester City FC679.32.432%90%6%<1%
3Liverpool FC266.25.34%49%23%0%
4Chelsea FC661.17.12%30%22%<1%
5Manchester United FC360.77.31%30%21%1%
6Newcastle United FC457.68.31%18%20%1%
7Brighton & Hove Albion FC356.38.81%16%16%3%
8Aston Villa FC056.38.8<1%17%16%2%
9AFC Bournemouth155.19.2<1%15%16%4%
10Brentford FC455.19.3<1%15%15%3%
11Everton FC451.010.91%7%9%6%
12Nottingham Forest FC148.311.9<1%4%9%10%
13Leeds United FC448.312.0<1%5%8%10%
14Fulham FC045.213.2<1%2%5%15%
15Crystal Palace FC044.113.7<1%2%3%20%
16Sunderland AFC342.614.2<1%1%3%24%
17Tottenham Hotspur FC041.714.5<1%1%4%25%
18Hull City AFC637.416.1<1%<1%1%43%
19Ipswich Town FC333.117.3<1%<1%<1%60%
20Coventry City FC030.218.1<1%<1%<1%72%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 69% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München374.91.669%97%2%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund363.53.614%73%15%<1%
3RB Leipzig357.75.36%52%19%1%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen056.85.55%46%23%1%
5VfB Stuttgart055.06.13%41%22%1%
6SC Freiburg349.38.41%20%18%6%
7TSG 1899 Hoffenheim047.09.3<1%14%15%9%
8Eintracht Frankfurt146.39.61%12%14%9%
91. FSV Mainz 05145.79.9<1%12%13%12%
10FC Augsburg344.210.5<1%9%12%15%
11Borussia Mönchengladbach041.311.7<1%5%8%23%
12SV 07 Elversberg341.111.8<1%4%7%22%
131. FC Union Berlin139.812.3<1%3%6%28%
14Hamburger SV039.412.5<1%3%6%27%
15SC Paderborn 07139.212.5<1%3%7%31%
161. FC Köln339.212.6<1%3%5%29%
17SV Werder Bremen037.913.0<1%3%5%34%
18FC Schalke 04033.714.7<1%1%2%52%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 52% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona985.91.752%99%0%<1%
2Real Madrid CF984.11.840%98%2%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid772.73.57%81%13%<1%
4Villarreal CF262.46.01%37%32%<1%
5Real Betis Balompié661.86.11%38%28%1%
6Athletic Club352.29.8<1%8%18%6%
7CA Osasuna751.110.4<1%7%15%7%
8Real Sociedad de Fútbol350.510.6<1%7%16%6%
9Sevilla FC648.611.4<1%4%12%11%
10Deportivo Alavés748.511.6<1%4%10%11%
11RC Celta de Vigo147.112.2<1%3%9%15%
12Rayo Vallecano de Madrid146.112.5<1%2%8%16%
13Valencia CF145.912.6<1%3%8%16%
14Real Racing Club de Santander445.812.8<1%2%7%17%
15Levante UD445.812.8<1%1%7%16%
16Getafe CF344.913.2<1%2%6%19%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona343.213.8<1%1%4%25%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña541.514.6<1%1%3%32%
19Elche CF139.715.4<1%1%3%38%
20Málaga CF133.917.4<1%<1%<1%63%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 60% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano685.11.860%94%5%<1%
2AS Roma674.14.011%63%23%<1%
3Juventus FC672.34.410%56%24%<1%
4Atalanta BC670.05.05%46%27%<1%
5SSC Napoli369.65.14%46%27%<1%
6AC Milan669.45.16%44%28%<1%
7Como 1907463.66.83%24%25%<1%
8SS Lazio662.37.11%20%21%<1%
9Bologna FC 1909051.310.5<1%3%6%3%
10Udinese Calcio448.411.4<1%2%4%4%
11ACF Fiorentina047.511.8<1%2%4%6%
12US Sassuolo Calcio344.112.9<1%1%2%12%
13Torino FC040.314.2<1%<1%1%19%
14Cagliari Calcio339.714.6<1%<1%1%24%
15Genoa CFC039.014.7<1%<1%1%25%
16Frosinone Calcio337.415.3<1%<1%<1%31%
17Parma Calcio 1913036.015.8<1%<1%<1%36%
18US Lecce335.815.8<1%<1%<1%35%
19Venezia FC033.216.7<1%<1%<1%50%
20AC Monza032.117.0<1%<1%<1%53%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 66% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC174.21.666%96%2%<1%
2Racing Club de Lens360.14.88%55%20%<1%
3Lille OSC358.65.28%49%20%0%
4Olympique Lyonnais358.15.36%46%24%<1%
5Olympique de Marseille356.35.94%40%23%1%
6AS Monaco FC356.26.04%40%22%1%
7Stade Rennais FC 1901152.87.22%28%20%2%
8RC Strasbourg Alsace048.08.91%13%17%5%
9FC Lorient145.49.90%9%12%8%
10Paris FC144.110.4<1%6%11%11%
11OGC Nice142.111.2<1%6%7%15%
12Toulouse FC042.011.3<1%4%7%14%
13Stade Brestois 29141.311.5<1%4%6%16%
14AJ Auxerre038.312.6<1%2%4%25%
15Havre AC033.914.2<1%1%1%41%
16ES Troyes AC133.514.3<1%1%2%44%
17Angers SCO030.915.2<1%<1%1%56%
18Le Mans FC129.715.5<1%<1%0%59%

MLS

No 2026 fixtures published upstream yet.

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (1,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer