Soccer Update

Run date 2026-09-03 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-03Real Sociedad de Fútbol v RC Celta de Vigo47% / 28% / 25%Real Sociedad de Fútbol1–1
2026-09-04Real Betis Balompié v Real Madrid CF21% / 27% / 52%Real Madrid CF1–1
2026-09-05Athletic Club v Club Atlético de Madrid30% / 29% / 41%Club Atlético de Madrid1–1
2026-09-05Rayo Vallecano de Madrid v Real Racing Club de Santander47% / 28% / 25%Rayo Vallecano de Madrid1–1
2026-09-05Villarreal CF v RC Deportivo La Coruña64% / 23% / 13%Villarreal CF2–0
2026-09-06Deportivo Alavés v CA Osasuna44% / 28% / 28%Deportivo Alavés1–1
2026-09-06Málaga CF v Levante UD33% / 29% / 37%Levante UD1–1
2026-09-06RCD Espanyol de Barcelona v Sevilla FC45% / 28% / 27%RCD Espanyol de Barcelona1–1
2026-09-06Valencia CF v FC Barcelona15% / 25% / 60%FC Barcelona0–1
2026-09-07Elche CF v Real Sociedad de Fútbol38% / 29% / 33%Elche CF1–1
2026-09-07Getafe CF v RC Celta de Vigo42% / 29% / 29%Getafe CF1–1

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-03Toulouse FC v Lille OSC31% / 29% / 40%Lille OSC1–1
2026-09-04Olympique Lyonnais v AJ Auxerre58% / 25% / 17%Olympique Lyonnais1–0
2026-09-04Paris Saint-Germain FC v AS Monaco FC69% / 21% / 10%Paris Saint-Germain FC1–0
2026-09-05Havre AC v Stade Brestois 2938% / 29% / 33%Havre AC1–1
2026-09-05OGC Nice v Le Mans FC53% / 26% / 20%OGC Nice1–1
2026-09-05Racing Club de Lens v FC Lorient54% / 26% / 20%Racing Club de Lens1–0
2026-09-06Angers SCO v Stade Rennais FC 190127% / 29% / 44%Stade Rennais FC 19011–1
2026-09-06ES Troyes AC v RC Strasbourg Alsace31% / 29% / 40%RC Strasbourg Alsace1–1
2026-09-06Olympique de Marseille v Paris FC49% / 27% / 24%Olympique de Marseille1–1

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-04VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln60% / 24% / 16%VfB Stuttgart2–1
2026-09-05Bayer 04 Leverkusen v 1. FC Union Berlin63% / 23% / 14%Bayer 04 Leverkusen2–1
2026-09-05Borussia Mönchengladbach v SV 07 Elversberg43% / 29% / 29%Borussia Mönchengladbach1–1
2026-09-05FC Schalke 04 v FC Bayern München10% / 22% / 68%FC Bayern München0–2
2026-09-05SC Paderborn 07 v SC Freiburg41% / 29% / 31%SC Paderborn 071–1
2026-09-05SV Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig27% / 29% / 44%RB Leipzig1–1
2026-09-05TSG 1899 Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund31% / 29% / 40%Borussia Dortmund1–1
2026-09-06Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Augsburg49% / 28% / 24%Eintracht Frankfurt1–1
2026-09-06Hamburger SV v 1. FSV Mainz 0541% / 29% / 30%Hamburger SV1–1

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-04Ipswich Town FC v Liverpool FC22% / 28% / 50%Liverpool FC1–1
2026-09-05Brentford FC v Sunderland AFC53% / 26% / 20%Brentford FC1–0
2026-09-05Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Leeds United FC48% / 28% / 24%Brighton & Hove Albion FC1–1
2026-09-05Fulham FC v Crystal Palace FC44% / 28% / 28%Fulham FC1–1
2026-09-05Hull City AFC v Aston Villa FC26% / 29% / 45%Aston Villa FC1–1
2026-09-05Manchester City FC v Coventry City FC73% / 19% / 8%Manchester City FC2–0
2026-09-05Newcastle United FC v AFC Bournemouth44% / 28% / 28%Newcastle United FC1–1
2026-09-05Nottingham Forest FC v Tottenham Hotspur FC47% / 28% / 25%Nottingham Forest FC1–1
2026-09-06Arsenal FC v Chelsea FC62% / 23% / 14%Arsenal FC2–0
2026-09-06Everton FC v Manchester United FC33% / 29% / 38%Manchester United FC1–1

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-04Genoa CFC v Como 190726% / 28% / 45%Como 19070–1
2026-09-05ACF Fiorentina v Torino FC50% / 27% / 23%ACF Fiorentina1–0
2026-09-05AS Roma v Atalanta BC47% / 28% / 25%AS Roma1–0
2026-09-05FC Internazionale Milano v SSC Napoli58% / 25% / 17%FC Internazionale Milano1–0
2026-09-06Bologna FC 1909 v US Sassuolo Calcio49% / 27% / 24%Bologna FC 19091–0
2026-09-06Frosinone Calcio v Venezia FC41% / 29% / 30%Frosinone Calcio1–1
2026-09-06Juventus FC v AC Milan45% / 28% / 27%Juventus FC1–1
2026-09-06Parma Calcio 1913 v AC Monza46% / 28% / 26%Parma Calcio 19131–1
2026-09-07Cagliari Calcio v US Lecce46% / 28% / 26%Cagliari Calcio1–1
2026-09-07Udinese Calcio v SS Lazio34% / 29% / 37%SS Lazio1–1

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickSim score
2026-09-05Burnley FC v Bristol City FC53% / 27% / 21%Burnley FC1–0
2026-09-05Lincoln City FC v Southampton FC13% / 24% / 63%Southampton FC0–1
2026-09-05Millwall FC v Bolton Wanderers FC58% / 25% / 17%Millwall FC1–0
2026-09-05Portsmouth FC v Cardiff City FC48% / 28% / 25%Portsmouth FC1–1
2026-09-05Preston North End FC v Blackburn Rovers FC42% / 29% / 30%Preston North End FC1–1
2026-09-05Queens Park Rangers FC v Middlesbrough FC34% / 29% / 37%Middlesbrough FC1–1
2026-09-05Sheffield United FC v Norwich City FC44% / 28% / 28%Sheffield United FC1–1
2026-09-05Stoke City FC v Charlton Athletic FC41% / 29% / 30%Stoke City FC1–1
2026-09-05Swansea City AFC v Wrexham AFC53% / 26% / 21%Swansea City AFC1–0
2026-09-05West Bromwich Albion FC v Watford FC47% / 28% / 25%West Bromwich Albion FC1–1
2026-09-05West Ham United FC v Derby County FC65% / 23% / 12%West Ham United FC1–0
2026-09-06Birmingham City FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers FC31% / 29% / 40%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–1
2026-09-08Blackburn Rovers FC v Sheffield United FC37% / 29% / 34%Blackburn Rovers FC1–1
2026-09-08Bolton Wanderers FC v West Ham United FC20% / 27% / 53%West Ham United FC1–1
2026-09-08Cardiff City FC v Stoke City FC43% / 28% / 28%Cardiff City FC1–1
2026-09-08Southampton FC v Swansea City AFC55% / 26% / 19%Southampton FC1–0
2026-09-08Watford FC v Preston North End FC47% / 28% / 25%Watford FC1–1
2026-09-08Wrexham AFC v Burnley FC33% / 29% / 38%Burnley FC1–1
2026-09-09Charlton Athletic FC v Queens Park Rangers FC43% / 28% / 29%Charlton Athletic FC1–1
2026-09-09Derby County FC v West Bromwich Albion FC44% / 28% / 28%Derby County FC1–1
2026-09-09Norwich City FC v Birmingham City FC47% / 28% / 25%Norwich City FC1–1
2026-09-09Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v Portsmouth FC62% / 24% / 14%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–0

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days6258.1%0.9295
Last 30 days9554.7%0.9548
Season to date9554.7%0.9548

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga955.6%0.8712
Championship2343.5%1.0805
Premier League1952.6%1.0098
La Liga1957.9%0.8519
Ligue 1944.4%1.1113
Serie A1675.0%0.7903

Past week: 36/62 picks correct

DateLeagueResultPickLog loss
✅2026-08-27La LigaFC Barcelona 2–0 Athletic ClubH0.28
❌2026-08-27La LigaRC Celta de Vigo 1–2 CA OsasunaH1.49
✅2026-08-28BundesligaFC Bayern München 5–1 VfB StuttgartH0.34
❌2026-08-28ChampionshipWrexham AFC 1–2 Birmingham City FCH1.21
✅2026-08-28Premier LeagueCrystal Palace FC 1–4 Manchester City FCA0.60
❌2026-08-28La LigaDeportivo Alavés 1–0 Villarreal CFA1.20
✅2026-08-28La LigaReal Racing Club de Santander 3–2 Elche CFH0.73
❌2026-08-28Ligue 1Lille OSC 2–2 Paris Saint-Germain FCA1.35
✅2026-08-28Serie AAC Milan 2–0 Venezia FCH0.38
❌2026-08-29Bundesliga1. FC Köln 3–2 TSG 1899 HoffenheimA1.20
❌2026-08-29Bundesliga1. FC Union Berlin 3–3 Eintracht FrankfurtH1.24
❌2026-08-29Bundesliga1. FSV Mainz 05 0–0 SC Paderborn 07H1.32
✅2026-08-29BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburger SVH0.37
✅2026-08-29BundesligaRB Leipzig 3–0 Borussia MönchengladbachH0.49
❌2026-08-29BundesligaSV 07 Elversberg 3–2 Bayer 04 LeverkusenA1.58
❌2026-08-29ChampionshipBlackburn Rovers FC 1–2 Queens Park Rangers FCH1.25
❌2026-08-29ChampionshipBolton Wanderers FC 0–1 Lincoln City FCH1.98
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipBristol City FC 2–1 Portsmouth FCH0.80
❌2026-08-29ChampionshipCardiff City FC 2–2 Sheffield United FCA1.24
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipCharlton Athletic FC 1–0 Preston North End FCH0.74
❌2026-08-29ChampionshipDerby County FC 0–3 Swansea City AFCH1.23
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipMiddlesbrough FC 3–1 West Bromwich Albion FCH0.61
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipNorwich City FC 4–1 Burnley FCH0.59
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipSouthampton FC 5–1 Millwall FCH0.76
❌2026-08-29ChampionshipWatford FC 1–1 West Ham United FCH1.25
✅2026-08-29ChampionshipWolverhampton Wanderers FC 4–1 Stoke City FCH0.65
❌2026-08-29Premier LeagueAFC Bournemouth 1–1 Everton FCH1.30
❌2026-08-29Premier LeagueCoventry City FC 0–1 Hull City AFCH1.37
❌2026-08-29Premier LeagueLiverpool FC 2–2 Nottingham Forest FCH1.42
❌2026-08-29Premier LeagueTottenham Hotspur FC 0–2 Newcastle United FCH1.18
❌2026-08-29La LigaLevante UD 5–2 Real Betis BalompiéA1.12
✅2026-08-29La LigaReal Sociedad de Fútbol 2–1 RCD Espanyol de BarcelonaH0.66
✅2026-08-29La LigaSevilla FC 1–3 Club Atlético de MadridA0.77
❌2026-08-29Ligue 1AJ Auxerre 1–3 Angers SCOH1.42
❌2026-08-29Ligue 1FC Lorient 1–2 ES Troyes ACH1.47
❌2026-08-29Ligue 1Olympique Lyonnais 1–1 Havre ACH1.42
✅2026-08-29Ligue 1RC Strasbourg Alsace 2–1 Racing Club de LensH0.99
❌2026-08-29Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 2–2 Toulouse FCH1.25
✅2026-08-29Serie AAC Monza 2–3 Udinese CalcioA0.99
❌2026-08-29Serie AACF Fiorentina 0–3 Frosinone CalcioH1.81
✅2026-08-29Serie AJuventus FC 2–0 Parma Calcio 1913H0.36
✅2026-08-29Serie AUS Sassuolo Calcio 2–1 Torino FCH0.84
✅2026-08-30BundesligaFC Augsburg 3–0 FC Schalke 04H0.66
✅2026-08-30BundesligaSC Freiburg 4–1 SV Werder BremenH0.64
✅2026-08-30Premier LeagueChelsea FC 4–3 Brighton & Hove Albion FCH0.67
❌2026-08-30Premier LeagueLeeds United FC 1–1 Brentford FCH1.24
✅2026-08-30Premier LeagueManchester United FC 5–2 Ipswich Town FCH0.39
✅2026-08-30Premier LeagueSunderland AFC 1–0 Fulham FCH0.92
❌2026-08-30La LigaRC Celta de Vigo 0–2 Athletic ClubH1.34
✅2026-08-30La LigaRC Deportivo La Coruña 3–1 Valencia CFH0.98
✅2026-08-30La LigaReal Madrid CF 4–0 Málaga CFH0.18
✅2026-08-30Ligue 1AS Monaco FC 2–0 Olympique de MarseilleH0.83
✅2026-08-30Ligue 1Paris FC 3–0 OGC NiceH0.81
✅2026-08-30Ligue 1Stade Rennais FC 1901 3–2 Le Mans FCH0.48
✅2026-08-30Serie ACagliari Calcio 0–1 FC Internazionale MilanoA0.39
✅2026-08-30Serie ASS Lazio 1–0 Genoa CFCH0.60
❌2026-08-30Serie ASSC Napoli 1–2 Como 1907H1.46
✅2026-08-31Premier LeagueAston Villa FC 0–1 Arsenal FCA0.64
✅2026-08-31La LigaCA Osasuna 1–0 Getafe CFH0.77
✅2026-08-31La LigaFC Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Vallecano de MadridH0.26
✅2026-08-31Serie AAtalanta BC 1–0 Bologna FC 1909H0.60
✅2026-08-31Serie AUS Lecce 0–4 AS RomaA0.54

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Arsenal FC 55% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Arsenal FC681.91.855%95%3%<1%
2Manchester City FC677.42.532%89%7%<1%
3Liverpool FC264.45.75%47%20%1%
4Manchester United FC359.37.52%28%20%2%
5Chelsea FC658.67.82%26%19%2%
6Newcastle United FC455.39.11%17%16%4%
7Brighton & Hove Albion FC354.99.21%17%16%4%
8Aston Villa FC054.59.41%15%16%5%
9Brentford FC454.39.51%15%15%5%
10AFC Bournemouth154.19.51%15%15%5%
11Leeds United FC453.39.91%13%14%6%
12Everton FC449.911.3<1%8%10%10%
13Nottingham Forest FC147.712.2<1%5%8%15%
14Fulham FC044.013.7<1%3%5%24%
15Crystal Palace FC042.914.1<1%2%4%27%
16Sunderland AFC342.314.4<1%2%3%28%
17Coventry City FC039.815.3<1%1%3%38%
18Tottenham Hotspur FC039.715.4<1%1%2%38%
19Ipswich Town FC339.515.5<1%1%2%39%
20Hull City AFC637.616.3<1%<1%1%47%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 70% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München373.81.570%97%2%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund361.83.913%70%15%<1%
3RB Leipzig356.25.75%47%20%2%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen055.85.85%45%20%2%
5VfB Stuttgart053.96.53%38%20%3%
6SC Freiburg347.69.11%17%15%9%
7TSG 1899 Hoffenheim045.89.81%13%13%12%
8SV 07 Elversberg345.610.0<1%12%13%13%
9SC Paderborn 07144.910.2<1%11%12%14%
101. FSV Mainz 05144.710.3<1%10%12%15%
11Eintracht Frankfurt144.510.4<1%10%12%15%
12FC Augsburg343.211.0<1%8%10%18%
13Hamburger SV041.911.5<1%6%9%22%
141. FC Köln340.512.2<1%5%7%26%
15Borussia Mönchengladbach039.712.5<1%4%6%30%
161. FC Union Berlin138.712.9<1%3%5%33%
17SV Werder Bremen037.013.6<1%2%4%40%
18FC Schalke 04035.614.1<1%2%3%46%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 50% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona985.51.750%99%1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF984.31.843%99%1%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid772.43.66%80%13%<1%
4Villarreal CF262.26.11%37%29%<1%
5Real Betis Balompié661.56.31%35%29%1%
6Athletic Club352.79.7<1%9%18%5%
7CA Osasuna751.510.2<1%7%15%6%
8Real Sociedad de Fútbol350.910.5<1%7%15%7%
9Deportivo Alavés749.111.3<1%4%11%9%
10Sevilla FC648.811.4<1%4%11%10%
11Levante UD447.212.2<1%3%9%13%
12RC Celta de Vigo147.112.2<1%3%8%13%
13Rayo Vallecano de Madrid146.812.3<1%3%8%14%
14Real Racing Club de Santander446.812.3<1%3%8%14%
15Valencia CF145.812.8<1%2%7%16%
16Getafe CF345.612.9<1%2%7%17%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona344.513.4<1%2%5%20%
18Elche CF140.015.3<1%<1%2%37%
19RC Deportivo La Coruña539.915.3<1%<1%2%36%
20Málaga CF129.118.8<1%<1%<1%83%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 58% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano684.51.858%94%4%<1%
2AS Roma673.44.012%63%21%<1%
3Juventus FC672.14.310%58%23%<1%
4Atalanta BC669.94.97%48%26%<1%
5SSC Napoli369.25.15%45%28%<1%
6AC Milan668.65.35%43%27%<1%
7Como 1907462.76.92%22%25%<1%
8SS Lazio661.87.22%19%23%<1%
9Bologna FC 1909051.210.5<1%3%8%4%
10Udinese Calcio447.611.8<1%1%4%7%
11ACF Fiorentina046.612.1<1%1%4%9%
12US Sassuolo Calcio345.312.6<1%1%3%10%
13Torino FC040.214.4<1%<1%1%22%
14Genoa CFC039.214.8<1%<1%1%26%
15Cagliari Calcio339.214.8<1%<1%1%26%
16Frosinone Calcio338.415.1<1%<1%1%29%
17Venezia FC036.515.7<1%<1%<1%36%
18US Lecce335.815.9<1%<1%<1%38%
19Parma Calcio 1913035.216.1<1%<1%<1%42%
20AC Monza033.016.8<1%<1%<1%51%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 64% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC272.51.764%95%3%<1%
2Lille OSC458.95.08%53%20%<1%
3AS Monaco FC658.45.18%50%21%<1%
4Racing Club de Lens357.65.46%46%22%<1%
5Olympique Lyonnais455.76.04%39%22%1%
6Olympique de Marseille354.26.53%33%22%1%
7Stade Rennais FC 1901453.96.73%31%21%1%
8RC Strasbourg Alsace351.17.72%22%19%3%
9Paris FC446.89.41%11%13%6%
10FC Lorient142.311.2<1%5%8%14%
11Toulouse FC142.211.2<1%5%8%15%
12Stade Brestois 29240.511.9<1%3%6%18%
13OGC Nice140.112.0<1%3%6%20%
14ES Troyes AC436.913.3<1%1%3%31%
15AJ Auxerre034.914.0<1%1%2%40%
16Havre AC134.714.0<1%1%2%40%
17Angers SCO334.414.2<1%1%2%42%
18Le Mans FC129.215.8<1%<1%<1%66%

MLS

No 2026 fixtures published upstream yet.

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer