Soccer Update

Run date 2026-09-16 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-16Club Atlético de Madrid v CA Osasuna61% / 24% / 14%Club Atlético de Madrid1–0 (13%)
2026-09-16FC Barcelona v Real Racing Club de Santander77% / 17% / 6%FC Barcelona2–0 (16%)
2026-09-16Levante UD v Athletic Club39% / 29% / 32%Levante UD1–0 (9%)
2026-09-16RC Deportivo La Coruña v Sevilla FC40% / 29% / 31%RC Deportivo La Coruña1–0 (10%)
2026-09-17Málaga CF v Villarreal CF19% / 28% / 53%Villarreal CF0–1 (12%)
2026-09-17Real Betis Balompié v Getafe CF59% / 24% / 16%Real Betis Balompié1–0 (12%)
2026-09-18RCD Espanyol de Barcelona v Elche CF46% / 28% / 26%RCD Espanyol de Barcelona1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Athletic Club v Deportivo Alavés49% / 28% / 24%Athletic Club1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19CA Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano de Madrid47% / 28% / 25%CA Osasuna1–0 (10%)
2026-09-19RC Celta de Vigo v Real Racing Club de Santander49% / 27% / 24%RC Celta de Vigo1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Sevilla FC v FC Barcelona11% / 23% / 66%FC Barcelona0–1 (13%)
2026-09-20Club Atlético de Madrid v Real Madrid CF24% / 29% / 47%Real Madrid CF0–1 (9%)
2026-09-20Getafe CF v Málaga CF57% / 25% / 18%Getafe CF1–0 (13%)
2026-09-20RC Deportivo La Coruña v Real Betis Balompié32% / 29% / 39%Real Betis Balompié0–1 (10%)
2026-09-20Valencia CF v Real Sociedad de Fútbol45% / 28% / 27%Valencia CF1–0 (10%)
2026-09-20Villarreal CF v Levante UD60% / 24% / 16%Villarreal CF1–0 (12%)

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18FC Bayern München v 1. FC Union Berlin83% / 14% / 4%FC Bayern München2–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1. FSV Mainz 0530% / 30% / 40%1. FSV Mainz 051–2 (8%)
2026-09-19Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg40% / 29% / 31%Eintracht Frankfurt2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln37% / 30% / 33%Hamburger SV2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19SV Werder Bremen v FC Augsburg38% / 29% / 33%SV Werder Bremen2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund37% / 29% / 34%VfB Stuttgart2–1 (8%)
2026-09-20Bayer 04 Leverkusen v RB Leipzig46% / 28% / 26%Bayer 04 Leverkusen2–1 (9%)
2026-09-20FC Schalke 04 v SV 07 Elversberg39% / 29% / 32%FC Schalke 042–1 (8%)
2026-09-20SC Paderborn 07 v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim33% / 29% / 37%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1–2 (8%)

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18Bristol City FC v Watford FC49% / 27% / 24%Bristol City FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Birmingham City FC v Middlesbrough FC36% / 29% / 35%Birmingham City FC1–0 (9%)
2026-09-19Burnley FC v Derby County FC51% / 27% / 22%Burnley FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Cardiff City FC v Charlton Athletic FC40% / 29% / 31%Cardiff City FC1–0 (10%)
2026-09-19Lincoln City FC v Swansea City AFC20% / 27% / 52%Swansea City AFC0–1 (14%)
2026-09-19Millwall FC v West Ham United FC29% / 29% / 42%West Ham United FC0–1 (10%)
2026-09-19Portsmouth FC v Blackburn Rovers FC45% / 28% / 27%Portsmouth FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Queens Park Rangers FC v Preston North End FC49% / 27% / 23%Queens Park Rangers FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Stoke City FC v Sheffield United FC38% / 29% / 33%Stoke City FC1–0 (9%)
2026-09-19Wrexham AFC v Southampton FC29% / 29% / 42%Southampton FC0–1 (11%)
2026-09-20Norwich City FC v Bolton Wanderers FC56% / 26% / 19%Norwich City FC1–0 (13%)
2026-09-20Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v West Bromwich Albion FC59% / 25% / 16%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–0 (12%)

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18Brentford FC v Chelsea FC37% / 29% / 35%Brentford FC1–0 (10%)
2026-09-19Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Arsenal FC20% / 27% / 52%Arsenal FC0–1 (11%)
2026-09-19Everton FC v Ipswich Town FC60% / 24% / 16%Everton FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Newcastle United FC v Hull City AFC61% / 24% / 15%Newcastle United FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Nottingham Forest FC v Coventry City FC51% / 27% / 22%Nottingham Forest FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Tottenham Hotspur FC v Aston Villa FC44% / 28% / 28%Tottenham Hotspur FC1–0 (8%)
2026-09-20AFC Bournemouth v Liverpool FC34% / 29% / 37%Liverpool FC0–1 (9%)
2026-09-20Fulham FC v Manchester United FC27% / 29% / 45%Manchester United FC0–1 (10%)
2026-09-20Leeds United FC v Crystal Palace FC47% / 28% / 25%Leeds United FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-20Manchester City FC v Sunderland AFC77% / 17% / 6%Manchester City FC2–0 (14%)

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18AS Monaco FC v Racing Club de Lens37% / 30% / 33%AS Monaco FC2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19Angers SCO v ES Troyes AC40% / 29% / 31%Angers SCO2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19Le Mans FC v FC Lorient32% / 29% / 39%FC Lorient0–1 (10%)
2026-09-19Olympique Lyonnais v Stade Rennais FC 190145% / 28% / 27%Olympique Lyonnais1–0 (9%)
2026-09-19Paris FC v RC Strasbourg Alsace45% / 28% / 28%Paris FC2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19Toulouse FC v Havre AC47% / 28% / 25%Toulouse FC1–0 (10%)
2026-09-20AJ Auxerre v Stade Brestois 2939% / 29% / 32%AJ Auxerre2–1 (8%)
2026-09-20OGC Nice v Lille OSC22% / 29% / 49%Lille OSC0–1 (10%)
2026-09-20Olympique de Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain FC19% / 26% / 55%Paris Saint-Germain FC0–1 (10%)

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18AC Monza v US Sassuolo Calcio31% / 29% / 40%US Sassuolo Calcio0–1 (11%)
2026-09-19AS Roma v FC Internazionale Milano35% / 29% / 36%FC Internazionale Milano0–1 (12%)
2026-09-19Bologna FC 1909 v Torino FC56% / 25% / 18%Bologna FC 19091–0 (13%)
2026-09-19Udinese Calcio v Cagliari Calcio48% / 28% / 24%Udinese Calcio1–0 (13%)
2026-09-19Venezia FC v SS Lazio27% / 29% / 44%SS Lazio0–1 (13%)
2026-09-20AC Milan v US Lecce71% / 20% / 9%AC Milan1–0 (16%)
2026-09-20ACF Fiorentina v SSC Napoli25% / 29% / 47%SSC Napoli0–1 (13%)
2026-09-20Frosinone Calcio v Como 190720% / 28% / 52%Como 19070–1 (13%)
2026-09-20Juventus FC v Atalanta BC57% / 25% / 18%Juventus FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-20Parma Calcio 1913 v Genoa CFC40% / 29% / 31%Parma Calcio 19131–0 (11%)

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days0——
Last 30 days16848.8%1.0121
Season to date16848.8%1.0121

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga1844.4%0.9788
Championship4744.7%1.0610
Premier League2944.8%1.0204
La Liga3046.7%0.9746
Ligue 11844.4%1.1673
Serie A2669.2%0.8737

No matches graded in the past week.

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Arsenal FC 56% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Arsenal FC982.71.756%97%2%<1%
2Manchester City FC978.42.333%91%5%<1%
3Liverpool FC566.45.05%56%19%<1%
4Manchester United FC458.97.51%27%21%2%
5Chelsea FC657.78.01%24%19%2%
6Newcastle United FC554.79.21%16%17%4%
7AFC Bournemouth254.09.4<1%14%16%5%
8Brighton & Hove Albion FC454.09.41%14%16%5%
9Aston Villa FC153.59.6<1%14%15%6%
10Leeds United FC553.59.6<1%13%15%5%
11Brentford FC552.99.9<1%12%15%6%
12Everton FC549.911.2<1%8%11%10%
13Nottingham Forest FC246.612.5<1%4%7%16%
14Crystal Palace FC346.112.7<1%4%7%17%
15Sunderland AFC442.514.2<1%2%4%27%
16Fulham FC041.114.7<1%1%3%32%
17Tottenham Hotspur FC139.915.2<1%1%2%36%
18Coventry City FC039.015.5<1%1%2%40%
19Ipswich Town FC337.816.0<1%1%1%44%
20Hull City AFC737.916.1<1%<1%1%44%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 62% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München472.21.762%96%3%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund663.83.419%76%13%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen357.35.36%50%20%1%
4VfB Stuttgart355.56.04%42%21%2%
5RB Leipzig353.26.83%33%21%2%
6SC Freiburg650.28.02%22%18%5%
7SV 07 Elversberg648.28.91%16%16%7%
81. FSV Mainz 05448.18.91%16%16%8%
9FC Augsburg646.79.51%13%14%9%
10TSG 1899 Hoffenheim043.910.7<1%8%11%16%
11SC Paderborn 07142.511.3<1%6%9%20%
12Eintracht Frankfurt141.311.8<1%5%8%23%
13SV Werder Bremen340.112.4<1%4%6%27%
141. FC Köln339.112.8<1%3%5%31%
15Hamburger SV038.912.8<1%3%6%32%
16Borussia Mönchengladbach037.513.4<1%2%4%37%
171. FC Union Berlin137.413.5<1%2%4%38%
18FC Schalke 04136.513.8<1%2%3%42%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 64% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona1286.81.564%100%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF981.92.032%98%2%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid769.54.03%72%17%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié964.35.41%47%26%<1%
5Villarreal CF258.97.2<1%25%28%1%
6Athletic Club656.08.3<1%16%23%2%
7Real Sociedad de Fútbol752.49.9<1%8%17%5%
8Deportivo Alavés1051.510.3<1%7%14%5%
9CA Osasuna749.411.2<1%5%11%8%
10Sevilla FC748.811.5<1%4%10%10%
11Rayo Vallecano de Madrid448.411.6<1%4%10%10%
12RC Celta de Vigo347.212.2<1%3%8%13%
13Levante UD546.612.5<1%2%7%14%
14Real Racing Club de Santander445.313.1<1%2%6%18%
15Getafe CF445.013.2<1%2%6%18%
16Valencia CF144.513.4<1%2%5%20%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona443.613.8<1%1%4%23%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña843.314.0<1%1%4%23%
19Elche CF138.116.1<1%<1%1%46%
20Málaga CF229.018.8<1%<1%<1%84%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 63% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano985.71.763%96%3%<1%
2AS Roma975.23.714%70%19%<1%
3Juventus FC771.34.67%54%25%<1%
4AC Milan768.75.35%43%27%<1%
5SSC Napoli368.15.44%40%28%<1%
6Atalanta BC668.15.44%41%27%<1%
7Como 1907764.96.32%27%27%<1%
8SS Lazio964.06.52%25%25%<1%
9Bologna FC 1909149.910.9<1%2%6%4%
10US Sassuolo Calcio445.712.4<1%1%3%9%
11Udinese Calcio445.712.4<1%1%3%9%
12ACF Fiorentina043.613.1<1%<1%2%13%
13Torino FC343.413.2<1%<1%2%13%
14Cagliari Calcio641.314.0<1%<1%1%18%
15Frosinone Calcio640.714.2<1%<1%1%19%
16Genoa CFC037.315.4<1%<1%<1%32%
17Venezia FC034.716.2<1%<1%<1%43%
18Parma Calcio 1913134.616.3<1%<1%<1%44%
19US Lecce334.416.4<1%<1%<1%45%
20AC Monza133.216.7<1%<1%<1%49%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 49% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC269.82.149%91%6%<1%
2AS Monaco FC961.74.215%62%19%<1%
3Lille OSC760.74.513%58%19%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais757.05.77%41%22%<1%
5Stade Rennais FC 1901755.56.35%35%22%1%
6Racing Club de Lens354.66.54%32%22%1%
7RC Strasbourg Alsace653.47.03%27%21%1%
8Olympique de Marseille351.57.72%20%19%2%
9Paris FC749.78.31%16%17%3%
10FC Lorient445.410.0<1%8%11%7%
11Stade Brestois 29542.911.0<1%5%8%11%
12Toulouse FC140.511.9<1%3%5%17%
13OGC Nice239.012.5<1%2%4%22%
14ES Troyes AC434.814.0<1%<1%1%37%
15AJ Auxerre033.614.4<1%<1%1%43%
16Angers SCO333.114.6<1%<1%1%45%
17Havre AC132.814.6<1%<1%1%47%
18Le Mans FC229.615.6<1%<1%<1%62%

MLS

No 2026 fixtures published upstream yet.

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

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