Soccer Update

Run date 2026-09-17 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-17Málaga CF v Villarreal CF23% / 23% / 53%Villarreal CF0–1 (12%)
2026-09-17Real Betis Balompié v Getafe CF55% / 27% / 18%Real Betis Balompié1–0 (12%)
2026-09-18RCD Espanyol de Barcelona v Elche CF52% / 29% / 20%RCD Espanyol de Barcelona1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Athletic Club v Deportivo Alavés49% / 27% / 24%Athletic Club1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19CA Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano de Madrid41% / 29% / 30%CA Osasuna1–0 (10%)
2026-09-19RC Celta de Vigo v Real Racing Club de Santander49% / 26% / 24%RC Celta de Vigo1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Sevilla FC v FC Barcelona15% / 19% / 65%FC Barcelona0–1 (13%)
2026-09-20Club Atlético de Madrid v Real Madrid CF22% / 22% / 56%Real Madrid CF0–1 (9%)
2026-09-20Getafe CF v Málaga CF55% / 27% / 17%Getafe CF1–0 (13%)
2026-09-20RC Deportivo La Coruña v Real Betis Balompié28% / 28% / 44%Real Betis Balompié0–1 (10%)
2026-09-20Valencia CF v Real Sociedad de Fútbol44% / 29% / 27%Valencia CF1–0 (10%)
2026-09-20Villarreal CF v Levante UD57% / 24% / 19%Villarreal CF1–0 (12%)

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18FC Bayern München v 1. FC Union Berlin80% / 14% / 6%FC Bayern München2–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1. FSV Mainz 0527% / 30% / 43%1. FSV Mainz 051–2 (8%)
2026-09-19Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg41% / 29% / 30%Eintracht Frankfurt2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln32% / 31% / 37%1. FC Köln1–2 (7%)
2026-09-19SV Werder Bremen v FC Augsburg36% / 29% / 35%SV Werder Bremen2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund33% / 31% / 36%Borussia Dortmund1–2 (8%)
2026-09-20Bayer 04 Leverkusen v RB Leipzig53% / 23% / 24%Bayer 04 Leverkusen2–1 (9%)
2026-09-20FC Schalke 04 v SV 07 Elversberg39% / 31% / 30%FC Schalke 042–1 (8%)
2026-09-20SC Paderborn 07 v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24% / 23% / 52%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1–2 (8%)

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18Bristol City FC v Watford FC43% / 27% / 30%Bristol City FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Birmingham City FC v Middlesbrough FC35% / 27% / 38%Middlesbrough FC0–1 (10%)
2026-09-19Burnley FC v Derby County FC54% / 21% / 25%Burnley FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Cardiff City FC v Charlton Athletic FC44% / 25% / 31%Cardiff City FC1–0 (10%)
2026-09-19Lincoln City FC v Swansea City AFC34% / 24% / 41%Swansea City AFC0–1 (14%)
2026-09-19Millwall FC v West Ham United FC29% / 31% / 40%West Ham United FC0–1 (10%)
2026-09-19Portsmouth FC v Blackburn Rovers FC51% / 25% / 24%Portsmouth FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Queens Park Rangers FC v Preston North End FC48% / 24% / 27%Queens Park Rangers FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Stoke City FC v Sheffield United FC40% / 30% / 29%Stoke City FC1–0 (9%)
2026-09-19Wrexham AFC v Southampton FC27% / 28% / 45%Southampton FC0–1 (11%)
2026-09-20Norwich City FC v Bolton Wanderers FC56% / 24% / 21%Norwich City FC1–0 (13%)
2026-09-20Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v West Bromwich Albion FC63% / 21% / 17%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–0 (12%)

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18Brentford FC v Chelsea FC36% / 27% / 37%Chelsea FC0–1 (8%)
2026-09-19Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Arsenal FC24% / 29% / 46%Arsenal FC0–1 (11%)
2026-09-19Everton FC v Ipswich Town FC56% / 26% / 18%Everton FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Newcastle United FC v Hull City AFC58% / 25% / 18%Newcastle United FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Nottingham Forest FC v Coventry City FC51% / 24% / 25%Nottingham Forest FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Tottenham Hotspur FC v Aston Villa FC46% / 26% / 28%Tottenham Hotspur FC1–0 (8%)
2026-09-20AFC Bournemouth v Liverpool FC35% / 28% / 37%Liverpool FC0–1 (9%)
2026-09-20Fulham FC v Manchester United FC25% / 24% / 50%Manchester United FC0–1 (10%)
2026-09-20Leeds United FC v Crystal Palace FC48% / 28% / 24%Leeds United FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-20Manchester City FC v Sunderland AFC77% / 15% / 8%Manchester City FC2–0 (14%)

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18AS Monaco FC v Racing Club de Lens36% / 27% / 37%Racing Club de Lens1–2 (7%)
2026-09-19Angers SCO v ESTAC Troyes52% / 26% / 22%Angers SCO2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19Le Mans FC v FC Lorient30% / 29% / 41%FC Lorient0–1 (10%)
2026-09-19Olympique Lyonnais v Stade Rennais FC 190147% / 29% / 24%Olympique Lyonnais1–0 (9%)
2026-09-19Paris FC v RC Strasbourg Alsace50% / 26% / 25%Paris FC2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19Toulouse FC v Havre AC54% / 26% / 20%Toulouse FC1–0 (10%)
2026-09-20AJ Auxerre v Stade Brestois 2936% / 30% / 34%AJ Auxerre2–1 (8%)
2026-09-20OGC Nice v Lille OSC22% / 30% / 48%Lille OSC0–1 (10%)
2026-09-20Olympique de Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain FC25% / 28% / 47%Paris Saint-Germain FC0–1 (10%)

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18AC Monza v US Sassuolo Calcio31% / 28% / 40%US Sassuolo Calcio0–1 (11%)
2026-09-19AS Roma v FC Internazionale Milano40% / 25% / 36%AS Roma1–0 (9%)
2026-09-19Bologna FC 1909 v Torino FC56% / 27% / 17%Bologna FC 19091–0 (13%)
2026-09-19Udinese Calcio v Cagliari Calcio43% / 29% / 28%Udinese Calcio1–0 (13%)
2026-09-19Venezia FC v SS Lazio25% / 30% / 44%SS Lazio0–1 (13%)
2026-09-20AC Milan v US Lecce69% / 19% / 11%AC Milan1–0 (16%)
2026-09-20ACF Fiorentina v SSC Napoli26% / 29% / 45%SSC Napoli0–1 (13%)
2026-09-20Frosinone Calcio v Como 190716% / 23% / 61%Como 19070–1 (13%)
2026-09-20Juventus FC v Atalanta BC60% / 25% / 15%Juventus FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-20Parma Calcio 1913 v Genoa CFC36% / 34% / 30%Parma Calcio 19131–0 (11%)

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days0——
Last 30 days16848.8%1.0121
Season to date16848.8%1.0121

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga1844.4%0.9788
Championship4744.7%1.0610
Premier League2944.8%1.0204
La Liga3046.7%0.9746
Ligue 11844.4%1.1673
Serie A2669.2%0.8737

No matches graded in the past week.

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Arsenal FC 56% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Arsenal FC982.81.756%97%2%<1%
2Manchester City FC978.42.333%91%6%<1%
3Liverpool FC566.35.05%56%20%<1%
4Manchester United FC458.97.51%27%21%2%
5Chelsea FC657.68.01%23%19%2%
6Newcastle United FC554.79.21%16%17%4%
7AFC Bournemouth254.19.4<1%14%16%5%
8Brighton & Hove Albion FC453.99.5<1%14%16%5%
9Leeds United FC553.59.6<1%13%15%5%
10Aston Villa FC153.49.6<1%13%16%5%
11Brentford FC552.99.9<1%13%15%6%
12Everton FC549.911.2<1%8%11%10%
13Nottingham Forest FC246.712.5<1%4%7%16%
14Crystal Palace FC346.112.7<1%4%7%17%
15Sunderland AFC442.514.2<1%2%4%27%
16Fulham FC041.114.7<1%1%3%32%
17Tottenham Hotspur FC140.015.2<1%1%2%36%
18Coventry City FC039.015.5<1%1%2%40%
19Ipswich Town FC337.816.0<1%1%1%44%
20Hull City AFC737.916.1<1%<1%1%44%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 62% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München472.21.762%96%3%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund663.83.419%76%13%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen357.35.36%50%20%1%
4VfB Stuttgart355.56.04%42%21%2%
5RB Leipzig353.26.83%33%21%2%
6SC Freiburg650.28.02%22%18%5%
7SV 07 Elversberg648.28.91%16%16%7%
81. FSV Mainz 05448.18.91%16%16%8%
9FC Augsburg646.79.51%13%14%9%
10TSG 1899 Hoffenheim043.910.7<1%8%11%16%
11SC Paderborn 07142.511.3<1%6%9%20%
12Eintracht Frankfurt141.311.8<1%5%8%23%
13SV Werder Bremen340.112.4<1%4%6%27%
141. FC Köln339.112.8<1%3%5%31%
15Hamburger SV038.912.8<1%3%6%32%
16Borussia Mönchengladbach037.513.4<1%2%4%37%
171. FC Union Berlin137.413.5<1%2%4%38%
18FC Schalke 04136.513.8<1%2%3%42%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 64% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona1286.81.564%100%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF981.92.032%98%2%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid769.64.03%72%17%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié964.35.41%47%26%<1%
5Villarreal CF258.97.2<1%25%28%1%
6Athletic Club656.08.3<1%16%23%2%
7Real Sociedad de Fútbol752.49.8<1%8%17%5%
8Deportivo Alavés1051.510.3<1%7%14%5%
9CA Osasuna749.411.2<1%5%11%8%
10Sevilla FC748.811.5<1%4%10%9%
11Rayo Vallecano de Madrid448.511.6<1%4%10%10%
12RC Celta de Vigo347.212.2<1%3%8%13%
13Levante UD546.512.5<1%2%7%14%
14Real Racing Club de Santander445.313.1<1%2%6%18%
15Getafe CF445.013.2<1%2%6%18%
16Valencia CF144.513.4<1%2%5%20%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona443.613.8<1%1%4%23%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña843.314.0<1%1%4%23%
19Elche CF138.116.1<1%<1%1%46%
20Málaga CF229.018.8<1%<1%<1%84%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 63% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano985.71.763%96%3%<1%
2AS Roma975.23.714%70%19%<1%
3Juventus FC771.34.67%54%25%<1%
4AC Milan768.75.25%43%27%<1%
5SSC Napoli368.15.44%40%28%<1%
6Atalanta BC668.15.44%40%28%<1%
7Como 1907764.86.32%28%27%<1%
8SS Lazio963.96.52%25%25%<1%
9Bologna FC 1909149.910.9<1%2%6%4%
10US Sassuolo Calcio445.712.4<1%1%3%9%
11Udinese Calcio445.612.4<1%1%3%9%
12ACF Fiorentina043.713.1<1%<1%2%13%
13Torino FC343.413.2<1%<1%2%13%
14Cagliari Calcio641.214.0<1%<1%1%18%
15Frosinone Calcio640.814.2<1%<1%1%19%
16Genoa CFC037.215.4<1%<1%<1%33%
17Venezia FC034.716.2<1%<1%<1%43%
18Parma Calcio 1913134.616.3<1%<1%<1%44%
19US Lecce334.416.4<1%<1%<1%45%
20AC Monza133.216.7<1%<1%<1%49%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 49% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC269.62.149%91%6%<1%
2AS Monaco FC961.64.315%62%18%<1%
3Lille OSC760.54.513%58%19%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais756.85.77%41%22%<1%
5Stade Rennais FC 1901755.26.35%35%22%1%
6Racing Club de Lens354.36.64%31%22%1%
7RC Strasbourg Alsace653.47.03%27%21%1%
8Olympique de Marseille351.47.72%20%19%2%
9Paris FC749.78.42%16%17%3%
10FC Lorient445.410.0<1%8%11%7%
11Stade Brestois 29542.511.2<1%4%7%12%
12Toulouse FC140.212.1<1%2%5%19%
13OGC Nice238.912.5<1%2%4%22%
14ESTAC Troyes437.713.0<1%1%3%26%
15AJ Auxerre033.214.5<1%<1%1%45%
16Angers SCO332.914.7<1%<1%1%47%
17Havre AC132.614.7<1%<1%1%49%
18Le Mans FC229.515.7<1%<1%<1%63%

MLS

No 2026 fixtures published upstream yet.

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

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