Soccer Update

Run date 2026-09-18 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18FC Bayern München v 1. FC Union Berlin82% / 13% / 5%FC Bayern München2–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1. FSV Mainz 0526% / 29% / 44%1. FSV Mainz 051–2 (8%)
2026-09-19Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg40% / 28% / 32%Eintracht Frankfurt2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln32% / 30% / 38%1. FC Köln1–2 (7%)
2026-09-19SV Werder Bremen v FC Augsburg37% / 30% / 33%SV Werder Bremen2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund32% / 32% / 36%Borussia Dortmund1–2 (8%)
2026-09-20Bayer 04 Leverkusen v RB Leipzig54% / 23% / 23%Bayer 04 Leverkusen2–1 (9%)
2026-09-20FC Schalke 04 v SV 07 Elversberg41% / 29% / 30%FC Schalke 042–1 (8%)
2026-09-20SC Paderborn 07 v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim23% / 24% / 53%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1–2 (8%)

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18Bristol City FC v Watford FC45% / 25% / 30%Bristol City FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Birmingham City FC v Middlesbrough FC35% / 26% / 39%Middlesbrough FC0–1 (10%)
2026-09-19Burnley FC v Derby County FC55% / 22% / 24%Burnley FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Cardiff City FC v Charlton Athletic FC43% / 26% / 32%Cardiff City FC1–0 (10%)
2026-09-19Lincoln City FC v Swansea City AFC36% / 22% / 42%Swansea City AFC0–1 (13%)
2026-09-19Millwall FC v West Ham United FC25% / 29% / 46%West Ham United FC0–1 (10%)
2026-09-19Portsmouth FC v Blackburn Rovers FC50% / 25% / 25%Portsmouth FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Queens Park Rangers FC v Preston North End FC49% / 27% / 25%Queens Park Rangers FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Stoke City FC v Sheffield United FC39% / 30% / 31%Stoke City FC1–0 (9%)
2026-09-19Wrexham AFC v Southampton FC27% / 28% / 45%Southampton FC0–1 (11%)
2026-09-20Norwich City FC v Bolton Wanderers FC56% / 23% / 21%Norwich City FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-20Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v West Bromwich Albion FC63% / 21% / 16%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–0 (12%)

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18Brentford FC v Chelsea FC37% / 27% / 36%Brentford FC1–0 (10%)
2026-09-19Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Arsenal FC25% / 30% / 45%Arsenal FC0–1 (11%)
2026-09-19Everton FC v Ipswich Town FC52% / 28% / 20%Everton FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Newcastle United FC v Hull City AFC59% / 23% / 18%Newcastle United FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Nottingham Forest FC v Coventry City FC55% / 24% / 21%Nottingham Forest FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Tottenham Hotspur FC v Aston Villa FC47% / 26% / 27%Tottenham Hotspur FC1–0 (8%)
2026-09-20AFC Bournemouth v Liverpool FC36% / 28% / 36%AFC Bournemouth1–0 (8%)
2026-09-20Fulham FC v Manchester United FC25% / 24% / 50%Manchester United FC0–1 (9%)
2026-09-20Leeds United FC v Crystal Palace FC51% / 27% / 22%Leeds United FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-20Manchester City FC v Sunderland AFC78% / 14% / 7%Manchester City FC2–0 (14%)

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18RCD Espanyol de Barcelona v Elche CF50% / 29% / 21%RCD Espanyol de Barcelona1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Athletic Club v Deportivo Alavés49% / 27% / 24%Athletic Club1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19CA Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano de Madrid43% / 29% / 28%CA Osasuna1–0 (10%)
2026-09-19RC Celta de Vigo v Real Racing Club de Santander49% / 28% / 23%RC Celta de Vigo1–0 (11%)
2026-09-19Sevilla FC v FC Barcelona17% / 20% / 63%FC Barcelona0–1 (13%)
2026-09-20Club Atlético de Madrid v Real Madrid CF22% / 22% / 55%Real Madrid CF0–1 (9%)
2026-09-20Getafe CF v Málaga CF57% / 26% / 17%Getafe CF1–0 (12%)
2026-09-20RC Deportivo La Coruña v Real Betis Balompié26% / 26% / 47%Real Betis Balompié0–1 (10%)
2026-09-20Valencia CF v Real Sociedad de Fútbol42% / 29% / 29%Valencia CF1–0 (10%)
2026-09-20Villarreal CF v Levante UD55% / 25% / 20%Villarreal CF1–0 (12%)

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18AS Monaco FC v Racing Club de Lens34% / 27% / 38%Racing Club de Lens1–2 (7%)
2026-09-19Angers SCO v ESTAC Troyes52% / 25% / 23%Angers SCO2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19Le Mans FC v FC Lorient31% / 28% / 41%FC Lorient0–1 (10%)
2026-09-19Olympique Lyonnais v Stade Rennais FC 190149% / 28% / 24%Olympique Lyonnais1–0 (9%)
2026-09-19Paris FC v RC Strasbourg Alsace50% / 27% / 24%Paris FC2–1 (9%)
2026-09-19Toulouse FC v Havre AC52% / 27% / 21%Toulouse FC1–0 (10%)
2026-09-20AJ Auxerre v Stade Brestois 2936% / 32% / 32%AJ Auxerre2–1 (8%)
2026-09-20OGC Nice v Lille OSC24% / 30% / 46%Lille OSC0–1 (10%)
2026-09-20Olympique de Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain FC26% / 28% / 47%Paris Saint-Germain FC0–1 (10%)

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-18AC Monza v US Sassuolo Calcio32% / 28% / 40%US Sassuolo Calcio0–1 (11%)
2026-09-19AS Roma v FC Internazionale Milano39% / 23% / 38%AS Roma1–0 (9%)
2026-09-19Bologna FC 1909 v Torino FC54% / 28% / 18%Bologna FC 19091–0 (13%)
2026-09-19Udinese Calcio v Cagliari Calcio44% / 29% / 27%Udinese Calcio1–0 (12%)
2026-09-19Venezia FC v SS Lazio25% / 30% / 46%SS Lazio0–1 (13%)
2026-09-20AC Milan v US Lecce72% / 18% / 11%AC Milan1–0 (16%)
2026-09-20ACF Fiorentina v SSC Napoli27% / 28% / 45%SSC Napoli0–1 (13%)
2026-09-20Frosinone Calcio v Como 190716% / 23% / 61%Como 19070–1 (13%)
2026-09-20Juventus FC v Atalanta BC61% / 23% / 15%Juventus FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-20Parma Calcio 1913 v Genoa CFC35% / 34% / 31%Parma Calcio 19131–0 (11%)

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days6152.5%0.9968
Last 30 days23849.6%1.0070
Season to date23849.6%1.0070

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga2748.1%0.9547
Championship7044.3%1.0626
Premier League3943.6%1.0574
La Liga4852.1%0.9341
Ligue 11844.4%1.1673
Serie A3666.7%0.9008

Past week: 32/61 picks correct

DateLeagueResultPickLog loss
❌2026-09-11Bundesliga1. FC Union Berlin 1–3 FC Schalke 04H1.36
✅2026-09-11ChampionshipWest Ham United FC 6–0 Wrexham AFCH0.39
✅2026-09-11La LigaSevilla FC 1–0 Valencia CFH0.81
✅2026-09-11Serie AVenezia FC 2–4 ACF FiorentinaA0.98
❌2026-09-12Bundesliga1. FC Köln 1–1 SV Werder BremenH1.26
❌2026-09-12Bundesliga1. FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Eintracht FrankfurtH1.32
✅2026-09-12BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07H0.45
❌2026-09-12BundesligaFC Augsburg 2–2 Bayer 04 LeverkusenA1.24
✅2026-09-12BundesligaSC Freiburg 5–0 Borussia MönchengladbachH0.66
✅2026-09-12BundesligaTSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB StuttgartH1.02
❌2026-09-12ChampionshipBlackburn Rovers FC 3–1 Millwall FCA1.10
✅2026-09-12ChampionshipBolton Wanderers FC 1–0 Cardiff City FCH0.78
❌2026-09-12ChampionshipCharlton Athletic FC 0–0 Portsmouth FCH1.26
❌2026-09-12ChampionshipDerby County FC 1–2 Birmingham City FCH1.23
✅2026-09-12ChampionshipMiddlesbrough FC 4–3 Norwich City FCH0.70
❌2026-09-12ChampionshipPreston North End FC 0–1 Lincoln City FCH1.89
✅2026-09-12ChampionshipSouthampton FC 4–1 Bristol City FCH0.56
✅2026-09-12ChampionshipSwansea City AFC 3–1 Burnley FCH0.85
❌2026-09-12ChampionshipWatford FC 1–2 Stoke City FCH1.28
❌2026-09-12ChampionshipWest Bromwich Albion FC 1–1 Queens Park Rangers FCH1.27
❌2026-09-12Premier LeagueAFC Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford FCH1.27
❌2026-09-12Premier LeagueAston Villa FC 1–2 Nottingham Forest FCH1.44
❌2026-09-12Premier LeagueChelsea FC 2–2 Hull City AFCH1.54
❌2026-09-12Premier LeagueCrystal Palace FC 2–3 Ipswich Town FCH1.56
❌2026-09-12Premier LeagueLiverpool FC 0–0 Fulham FCH1.46
✅2026-09-12Premier LeagueSunderland AFC 0–2 Arsenal FCA0.49
❌2026-09-12Premier LeagueTottenham Hotspur FC 0–0 Everton FCH1.25
❌2026-09-12La LigaAthletic Club 1–1 Elche CFH1.37
❌2026-09-12La LigaCA Osasuna 0–2 RCD Espanyol de BarcelonaH1.40
✅2026-09-12La LigaReal Madrid CF 4–1 Rayo Vallecano de MadridH0.27
✅2026-09-12La LigaReal Racing Club de Santander 2–1 Deportivo AlavésH0.79
❌2026-09-12Serie AAtalanta BC 1–2 Cagliari CalcioH2.07
❌2026-09-12Serie AGenoa CFC 1–1 Frosinone CalcioH1.27
❌2026-09-12Serie ASS Lazio 2–2 AC MilanA1.24
✅2026-09-13BundesligaRB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SVH0.36
✅2026-09-13BundesligaSV 07 Elversberg 1–2 FC Bayern MünchenA0.49
✅2026-09-13ChampionshipSheffield United FC 0–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers FCA0.97
✅2026-09-13Premier LeagueCoventry City FC 0–5 Brighton & Hove Albion FCA0.99
✅2026-09-13Premier LeagueManchester United FC 0–1 Manchester City FCA0.80
❌2026-09-13La LigaGetafe CF 1–1 RC Deportivo La CoruñaH1.26
✅2026-09-13La LigaLevante UD 2–4 FC BarcelonaA0.40
❌2026-09-13La LigaRC Celta de Vigo 1–1 Málaga CFH1.43
✅2026-09-13La LigaReal Sociedad de Fútbol 0–3 Club Atlético de MadridA0.82
✅2026-09-13Serie ASSC Napoli 1–0 Bologna FC 1909H0.58
✅2026-09-13Serie AUS Lecce 3–2 AC MonzaH0.89
❌2026-09-13Serie AUS Sassuolo Calcio 3–2 Juventus FCA1.63
✅2026-09-14Premier LeagueLeeds United FC 4–1 Newcastle United FCH0.85
❌2026-09-14La LigaVillarreal CF 1–2 Real Betis BalompiéH1.49
✅2026-09-14Serie AComo 1907 2–1 Parma Calcio 1913H0.31
✅2026-09-14Serie AFC Internazionale Milano 5–3 Udinese CalcioH0.28
✅2026-09-14Serie ATorino FC 0–2 AS RomaA0.47
❌2026-09-15ChampionshipBristol City FC 0–1 Lincoln City FCH2.12
❌2026-09-15ChampionshipMiddlesbrough FC 2–2 Millwall FCH1.28
❌2026-09-15La LigaDeportivo Alavés 0–1 Valencia CFH1.46
✅2026-09-15La LigaElche CF 2–3 Real Madrid CFA0.39
✅2026-09-15La LigaRayo Vallecano de Madrid 2–1 RCD Espanyol de BarcelonaH0.67
✅2026-09-16La LigaClub Atlético de Madrid 4–0 CA OsasunaH0.49
✅2026-09-16La LigaFC Barcelona 7–2 Real Racing Club de SantanderH0.26
❌2026-09-16La LigaRC Deportivo La Coruña 0–1 Sevilla FCH1.16
✅2026-09-17La LigaMálaga CF 1–3 Villarreal CFA0.63
✅2026-09-17La LigaReal Betis Balompié 1–0 Getafe CFH0.52

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Arsenal FC 57% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Arsenal FC1284.11.657%98%2%<1%
2Manchester City FC1280.52.137%95%3%<1%
3Liverpool FC664.75.43%51%21%<1%
4Brighton & Hove Albion FC757.38.01%23%20%2%
5Manchester United FC457.08.11%23%19%2%
6Leeds United FC856.58.31%21%19%3%
7Chelsea FC756.08.50%20%19%3%
8AFC Bournemouth353.29.7<1%13%16%5%
9Brentford FC653.09.7<1%13%15%5%
10Newcastle United FC552.010.1<1%11%14%6%
11Aston Villa FC150.410.8<1%9%12%9%
12Nottingham Forest FC550.111.0<1%8%11%9%
13Everton FC649.711.2<1%7%11%9%
14Crystal Palace FC343.014.0<1%2%4%25%
15Fulham FC141.914.4<1%2%3%29%
16Sunderland AFC441.414.6<1%1%3%30%
17Ipswich Town FC641.014.8<1%1%3%32%
18Tottenham Hotspur FC239.515.4<1%1%2%38%
19Hull City AFC838.615.8<1%<1%2%41%
20Coventry City FC036.116.6<1%<1%1%52%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 66% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München773.31.666%97%2%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund965.13.120%81%11%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen456.65.64%47%21%1%
4RB Leipzig654.96.13%40%22%2%
5VfB Stuttgart353.36.82%33%22%3%
6SC Freiburg952.37.22%29%20%3%
7SV 07 Elversberg647.19.3<1%13%15%8%
8FC Augsburg746.79.5<1%12%15%9%
9TSG 1899 Hoffenheim346.49.6<1%12%15%10%
101. FSV Mainz 05445.210.1<1%10%12%12%
11Eintracht Frankfurt444.510.4<1%9%12%13%
12SC Paderborn 07141.311.8<1%5%8%23%
13SV Werder Bremen440.212.3<1%3%6%26%
14FC Schalke 04439.512.6<1%3%6%28%
151. FC Köln438.513.0<1%2%4%32%
16Hamburger SV037.313.5<1%2%4%37%
17Borussia Mönchengladbach035.814.0<1%1%3%44%
181. FC Union Berlin134.614.5<1%1%2%49%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 64% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona1888.51.564%100%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF1583.52.030%99%1%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid1373.03.54%83%13%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié1568.34.51%64%23%<1%
5Villarreal CF557.97.4<1%17%32%1%
6Athletic Club754.68.8<1%10%24%3%
7Sevilla FC1353.39.2<1%7%21%3%
8Real Sociedad de Fútbol750.410.6<1%4%15%6%
9Rayo Vallecano de Madrid749.611.0<1%4%13%8%
10Deportivo Alavés1047.411.9<1%2%9%10%
11Real Racing Club de Santander746.512.3<1%2%8%13%
12Valencia CF445.712.7<1%1%7%15%
13Levante UD545.612.7<1%1%7%15%
14RCD Espanyol de Barcelona745.612.7<1%1%7%15%
15CA Osasuna745.612.8<1%1%7%15%
16RC Celta de Vigo445.512.8<1%1%6%16%
17Getafe CF542.914.0<1%1%4%23%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña941.614.6<1%<1%2%28%
19Elche CF237.816.1<1%<1%1%45%
20Málaga CF328.618.9<1%<1%<1%85%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 66% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano1286.41.666%97%2%<1%
2AS Roma1276.83.217%78%15%<1%
3SSC Napoli669.45.04%48%27%<1%
4AC Milan868.35.34%43%28%<1%
5Juventus FC768.25.34%42%28%<1%
6Como 19071066.05.92%33%27%<1%
7Atalanta BC664.66.32%28%27%<1%
8SS Lazio1063.66.61%24%26%<1%
9US Sassuolo Calcio749.111.3<1%2%5%5%
10Bologna FC 1909148.811.4<1%2%5%5%
11ACF Fiorentina346.512.2<1%1%3%8%
12Udinese Calcio445.012.7<1%1%2%10%
13Cagliari Calcio945.012.7<1%1%2%9%
14Torino FC342.213.8<1%<1%1%16%
15Frosinone Calcio740.814.3<1%<1%1%19%
16Genoa CFC136.515.7<1%<1%<1%35%
17US Lecce636.515.8<1%<1%<1%34%
18Parma Calcio 1913133.716.6<1%<1%<1%47%
19Venezia FC032.417.0<1%<1%<1%53%
20AC Monza131.617.3<1%<1%<1%57%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 49% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC269.72.149%91%6%<1%
2AS Monaco FC961.64.315%62%18%<1%
3Lille OSC760.54.512%57%20%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais756.95.77%42%22%<1%
5Stade Rennais FC 1901755.36.35%35%21%1%
6Racing Club de Lens354.26.64%30%22%1%
7RC Strasbourg Alsace653.37.03%27%21%1%
8Olympique de Marseille351.47.72%21%19%2%
9Paris FC749.88.32%16%17%3%
10FC Lorient445.310.11%7%11%7%
11Stade Brestois 29542.511.2<1%4%7%12%
12Toulouse FC140.312.0<1%2%5%18%
13OGC Nice238.712.6<1%2%4%23%
14ESTAC Troyes437.713.0<1%1%3%26%
15AJ Auxerre033.214.5<1%<1%1%46%
16Angers SCO332.814.7<1%<1%1%47%
17Havre AC132.614.7<1%<1%1%48%
18Le Mans FC229.515.7<1%<1%<1%63%

MLS

No 2026 fixtures published upstream yet.

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

This email online: 2026-09-18 update · Previous: 2026-09-17 · All Soccer emails