Soccer Update

Run date 2026-09-20 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-20Bayer 04 Leverkusen v RB Leipzig54% / 22% / 24%Bayer 04 Leverkusen2–1 (9%)
2026-09-20FC Schalke 04 v SV 07 Elversberg39% / 33% / 28%FC Schalke 042–1 (8%)
2026-09-20SC Paderborn 07 v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim21% / 23% / 56%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1–2 (8%)

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-20Norwich City FC v Bolton Wanderers FC57% / 23% / 20%Norwich City FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-20Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v West Bromwich Albion FC62% / 23% / 15%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–0 (12%)

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-20AFC Bournemouth v Liverpool FC40% / 28% / 32%AFC Bournemouth1–0 (8%)
2026-09-20Fulham FC v Manchester United FC28% / 25% / 48%Manchester United FC0–1 (9%)
2026-09-20Leeds United FC v Crystal Palace FC46% / 28% / 26%Leeds United FC1–0 (11%)
2026-09-20Manchester City FC v Sunderland AFC79% / 13% / 9%Manchester City FC2–0 (14%)

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-20Club Atlético de Madrid v Real Madrid CF26% / 22% / 52%Real Madrid CF0–1 (9%)
2026-09-20Getafe CF v Málaga CF57% / 25% / 18%Getafe CF1–0 (12%)
2026-09-20RC Deportivo La Coruña v Real Betis Balompié26% / 26% / 47%Real Betis Balompié0–1 (10%)
2026-09-20Valencia CF v Real Sociedad de Fútbol40% / 30% / 30%Valencia CF1–0 (10%)
2026-09-20Villarreal CF v Levante UD59% / 23% / 18%Villarreal CF1–0 (12%)

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-20AJ Auxerre v Stade Brestois 2932% / 34% / 34%Stade Brestois 290–1 (8%)
2026-09-20OGC Nice v Lille OSC25% / 29% / 46%Lille OSC0–1 (10%)
2026-09-20Olympique de Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain FC28% / 28% / 44%Paris Saint-Germain FC0–1 (11%)

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-09-20AC Milan v US Lecce69% / 19% / 12%AC Milan1–0 (16%)
2026-09-20ACF Fiorentina v SSC Napoli30% / 27% / 42%SSC Napoli0–1 (13%)
2026-09-20Frosinone Calcio v Como 190717% / 21% / 62%Como 19070–1 (13%)
2026-09-20Juventus FC v Atalanta BC63% / 22% / 16%Juventus FC1–0 (12%)
2026-09-20Parma Calcio 1913 v Genoa CFC35% / 33% / 32%Parma Calcio 19131–0 (11%)

📊 This week against trend

22 fixtures · 39 clubs with enough history to compare. Each club is measured against its own mean in completed seasons before 2026-27, not against a league average.

The slate as a whole

MetricThis weekClub normDiffDirection
npxG conceded1.511.24+0.27↑ worse
xG conceded1.611.36+0.25↑ worse
Deep completions allowed6.835.88+0.94↑ worse
PPDA (pressing)12.8511.35+1.51↑ worse
npxG created1.531.34+0.19↑ better
Deep completions7.496.47+1.01↑ better
xG created1.631.47+0.16↑ better
xG per shot0.1180.115+0.003↑ better
Expected points1.411.46-0.05↓ worse
Deep share0.5190.524-0.004↓ worse

Furthest from their own norm

ClubMetricNowNormDirectionFixture
FC Schalke 04npxG conceded2.311.40↑ worseFC Schalke 04 v SV 07 Elversberg
Málaga CFDeep completions allowed9.955.45↑ worseGetafe CF v Málaga CF
FC Schalke 04xG conceded2.401.53↑ worseFC Schalke 04 v SV 07 Elversberg
FC Schalke 04Deep completions allowed10.386.22↑ worseFC Schalke 04 v SV 07 Elversberg
Villarreal CFxG per shot0.1770.132↑ betterVillarreal CF v Levante UD
US LeccexG per shot0.1460.103↑ betterAC Milan v US Lecce
Bayer 04 LeverkusenDeep completions13.618.11↑ betterBayer 04 Leverkusen v RB Leipzig
US LeccenpxG conceded2.281.57↑ worseAC Milan v US Lecce

"Now" is the exponentially weighted form the model actually used, which early in a season still carries the back end of the last one. Rows are ranked by how large the gap is relative to how much clubs differ on that metric at all, so an xG swing and a PPDA swing are comparable. A club with fewer than 20 prior-season matches has no norm and is left out rather than compared against someone else's.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days2969.0%0.8489
Last 30 days24649.2%1.0085
Season to date24649.2%1.0085

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga2748.1%0.9547
Championship7044.3%1.0626
Premier League3943.6%1.0574
La Liga4852.1%0.9341
Ligue 12642.3%1.1321
Serie A3666.7%0.9008

Past week: 20/29 picks correct

DateLeagueResultPickLog loss
✅2026-09-13BundesligaRB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SVH0.36
✅2026-09-13BundesligaSV 07 Elversberg 1–2 FC Bayern MünchenA0.49
✅2026-09-13ChampionshipSheffield United FC 0–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers FCA0.97
✅2026-09-13Premier LeagueCoventry City FC 0–5 Brighton & Hove Albion FCA0.99
✅2026-09-13Premier LeagueManchester United FC 0–1 Manchester City FCA0.80
❌2026-09-13La LigaGetafe CF 1–1 RC Deportivo La CoruñaH1.26
✅2026-09-13La LigaLevante UD 2–4 FC BarcelonaA0.40
❌2026-09-13La LigaRC Celta de Vigo 1–1 Málaga CFH1.43
✅2026-09-13La LigaReal Sociedad de Fútbol 0–3 Club Atlético de MadridA0.82
❌2026-09-13Ligue 1Le Mans FC 2–2 Racing Club de LensA1.26
✅2026-09-13Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Paris Saint-Germain FCA0.38
✅2026-09-13Serie ASSC Napoli 1–0 Bologna FC 1909H0.58
✅2026-09-13Serie AUS Lecce 3–2 AC MonzaH0.89
❌2026-09-13Serie AUS Sassuolo Calcio 3–2 Juventus FCA1.63
✅2026-09-14Premier LeagueLeeds United FC 4–1 Newcastle United FCH0.85
❌2026-09-14La LigaVillarreal CF 1–2 Real Betis BalompiéH1.49
✅2026-09-14Serie AComo 1907 2–1 Parma Calcio 1913H0.31
✅2026-09-14Serie AFC Internazionale Milano 5–3 Udinese CalcioH0.28
✅2026-09-14Serie ATorino FC 0–2 AS RomaA0.47
❌2026-09-15ChampionshipBristol City FC 0–1 Lincoln City FCH2.12
❌2026-09-15ChampionshipMiddlesbrough FC 2–2 Millwall FCH1.28
❌2026-09-15La LigaDeportivo Alavés 0–1 Valencia CFH1.46
✅2026-09-15La LigaElche CF 2–3 Real Madrid CFA0.39
✅2026-09-15La LigaRayo Vallecano de Madrid 2–1 RCD Espanyol de BarcelonaH0.67
✅2026-09-16La LigaClub Atlético de Madrid 4–0 CA OsasunaH0.49
✅2026-09-16La LigaFC Barcelona 7–2 Real Racing Club de SantanderH0.26
❌2026-09-16La LigaRC Deportivo La Coruña 0–1 Sevilla FCH1.16
✅2026-09-17La LigaMálaga CF 1–3 Villarreal CFA0.63
✅2026-09-17La LigaReal Betis Balompié 1–0 Getafe CFH0.52

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Arsenal FC 57% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Arsenal FC1284.01.657%98%1%<1%
2Manchester City FC1280.42.136%95%4%<1%
3Liverpool FC664.75.43%51%21%<1%
4Brighton & Hove Albion FC757.38.01%23%20%2%
5Manchester United FC457.08.11%23%20%2%
6Leeds United FC856.48.31%21%19%2%
7Chelsea FC756.08.51%20%19%3%
8Brentford FC653.29.6<1%13%15%5%
9AFC Bournemouth353.19.7<1%13%15%5%
10Newcastle United FC551.910.2<1%11%14%6%
11Aston Villa FC150.410.8<1%9%12%9%
12Nottingham Forest FC550.210.9<1%8%11%9%
13Everton FC649.611.2<1%7%11%10%
14Crystal Palace FC343.014.0<1%2%4%25%
15Fulham FC141.914.4<1%2%3%29%
16Sunderland AFC441.314.7<1%1%3%31%
17Ipswich Town FC640.914.9<1%1%3%32%
18Tottenham Hotspur FC239.615.3<1%1%2%37%
19Hull City AFC838.615.8<1%<1%1%41%
20Coventry City FC036.216.5<1%<1%1%51%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München773.31.665%97%2%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund965.13.120%81%11%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen456.65.55%47%22%1%
4RB Leipzig654.96.13%40%22%2%
5VfB Stuttgart353.36.82%33%22%2%
6SC Freiburg952.37.22%29%20%3%
7SV 07 Elversberg647.19.31%14%15%8%
8FC Augsburg746.89.5<1%13%15%9%
9TSG 1899 Hoffenheim346.49.6<1%12%14%10%
101. FSV Mainz 05445.210.1<1%10%13%12%
11Eintracht Frankfurt444.410.5<1%8%11%14%
12SC Paderborn 07141.211.8<1%5%8%23%
13SV Werder Bremen440.212.3<1%3%6%26%
14FC Schalke 04439.512.6<1%3%6%28%
151. FC Köln438.513.0<1%2%5%32%
16Hamburger SV037.313.4<1%2%4%38%
17Borussia Mönchengladbach035.714.1<1%1%3%44%
181. FC Union Berlin134.714.4<1%1%2%49%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 64% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona1888.61.564%100%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF1583.62.030%99%1%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid1372.93.54%83%13%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié1568.44.41%64%24%<1%
5Villarreal CF557.97.4<1%17%32%1%
6Athletic Club754.68.8<1%11%24%3%
7Sevilla FC1353.29.3<1%7%21%3%
8Real Sociedad de Fútbol750.510.5<1%4%15%6%
9Rayo Vallecano de Madrid749.511.0<1%4%13%8%
10Deportivo Alavés1047.511.9<1%2%9%10%
11Real Racing Club de Santander746.512.4<1%2%8%13%
12Valencia CF445.712.7<1%1%7%15%
13RC Celta de Vigo445.612.7<1%1%7%15%
14Levante UD545.612.7<1%1%7%15%
15RCD Espanyol de Barcelona745.612.8<1%1%6%15%
16CA Osasuna745.412.8<1%1%6%15%
17Getafe CF542.914.0<1%1%4%23%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña941.614.6<1%<1%2%28%
19Elche CF237.916.1<1%<1%1%45%
20Málaga CF328.618.9<1%<1%<1%85%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 66% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano1286.31.666%97%3%<1%
2AS Roma1276.83.217%78%15%<1%
3SSC Napoli669.45.04%48%26%<1%
4AC Milan868.35.34%43%27%<1%
5Juventus FC768.25.34%42%28%<1%
6Como 19071065.95.92%33%27%<1%
7Atalanta BC664.76.32%29%27%<1%
8SS Lazio1063.66.61%25%25%<1%
9US Sassuolo Calcio748.911.3<1%2%5%5%
10Bologna FC 1909148.811.4<1%2%5%5%
11ACF Fiorentina346.512.2<1%1%3%8%
12Udinese Calcio444.912.8<1%1%2%10%
13Cagliari Calcio944.912.8<1%1%2%9%
14Torino FC342.113.8<1%<1%1%16%
15Frosinone Calcio740.814.2<1%<1%1%19%
16Genoa CFC136.715.7<1%<1%<1%35%
17US Lecce636.515.8<1%<1%<1%35%
18Parma Calcio 1913133.816.6<1%<1%<1%47%
19Venezia FC032.517.0<1%<1%<1%53%
20AC Monza131.517.3<1%<1%<1%58%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 55% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC570.91.955%94%5%<1%
2Lille OSC1062.14.114%65%18%<1%
3AS Monaco FC1061.24.313%61%19%<1%
4Stade Rennais FC 19011057.45.56%44%23%<1%
5Olympique Lyonnais856.45.85%39%24%<1%
6Racing Club de Lens453.16.92%27%22%1%
7RC Strasbourg Alsace752.97.02%25%23%1%
8Olympique de Marseille349.68.31%15%18%3%
9Paris FC849.58.31%15%17%3%
10FC Lorient544.610.2<1%6%10%8%
11Stade Brestois 29541.511.4<1%3%7%14%
12Toulouse FC240.211.9<1%2%5%17%
13OGC Nice236.713.2<1%1%3%28%
14ESTAC Troyes436.513.3<1%1%2%30%
15AJ Auxerre335.513.7<1%1%2%34%
16Angers SCO432.714.7<1%<1%1%47%
17Havre AC231.715.0<1%<1%1%52%
18Le Mans FC329.815.5<1%<1%<1%61%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

🇺🇸 MLS — Shield, playoffs and MLS Cup

Eastern Conference — Inter Miami CF 28% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.1Nashville SC5369.7100%88%26%16%72%
2.2Inter Miami CF4462.4100%11%28%16%8%
4.0Chicago Fire FC3955.1100%1%10%5%<1%
4.6Charlotte FC3953.299%<1%10%5%<1%
4.7New England Revolution4052.599%<1%6%2%<1%
6.8FC Cincinnati3148.089%<1%6%3%<1%
7.7Orlando City SC3145.778%<1%4%2%<1%
8.0Philadelphia Union3045.075%<1%5%2%<1%
8.8New York City FC2943.763%<1%3%1%<1%
10.7Toronto FC2940.530%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.0D.C. United2839.825%<1%<1%<1%<1%
11.1New York Red Bulls2739.324%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.9Columbus Crew2337.114%<1%1%<1%<1%
13.5Atlanta United FC2233.23%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.1CF Montréal2131.71%<1%<1%<1%<1%

Western Conference — Vancouver Whitecaps FC 30% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.4Vancouver Whitecaps FC4664.2100%76%30%17%19%
3.1Houston Dynamo FC4357.7100%12%13%6%1%
3.7FC Dallas4056.499%7%13%6%<1%
4.1Los Angeles FC4055.099%4%18%9%<1%
5.6St. Louis City SC3852.194%1%7%3%<1%
5.7San Jose Earthquakes3851.593%1%5%2%<1%
8.8Portland Timbers3245.761%<1%3%1%<1%
9.0Colorado Rapids3245.056%<1%2%1%<1%
9.5Real Salt Lake2944.448%<1%2%1%<1%
9.8San Diego FC3044.045%<1%2%1%<1%
9.9Seattle Sounders FC2744.043%<1%2%1%<1%
10.2Minnesota United FC2943.537%<1%2%1%<1%
11.6LA Galaxy2940.717%<1%1%<1%<1%
12.9Austin FC2637.86%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.9Sporting Kansas City1525.5<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

153 regular-season matches left, replayed 20,000 times with live in-sim Elo, then the full playoff bracket each time. Seed = expected conference finish; 1 seed = finishing top of the conference; Conf = reaching MLS Cup; Shield = best record in the league. MLS publishes no machine-readable fixture list, so the run-in is reconstructed from the league's format: 128 conference fixtures are exact, and the 25 cross-conference ones are known only as per-club home/away counts, so every replay draws its own pairing of them.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

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