Soccer Update

Run date 2026-09-22 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

No league fixtures in the coming week.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days7047.1%1.0219
Last 30 days29049.0%1.0069
Season to date30648.4%1.0152

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga3650.0%0.9618
Championship8243.9%1.0730
Premier League4940.8%1.0547
La Liga5850.0%0.9553
Ligue 13548.6%1.0746
Serie A4660.9%0.9422

Past week: 33/70 picks correct

DateLeagueResultPickLog loss
❌2026-09-15ChampionshipBristol City FC 0–1 Lincoln City FCH2.12
❌2026-09-15ChampionshipMiddlesbrough FC 2–2 Millwall FCH1.28
❌2026-09-15La LigaDeportivo Alavés 0–1 Valencia CFH1.46
✅2026-09-15La LigaElche CF 2–3 Real Madrid CFA0.39
✅2026-09-15La LigaRayo Vallecano de Madrid 2–1 RCD Espanyol de BarcelonaH0.67
✅2026-09-16La LigaClub Atlético de Madrid 4–0 CA OsasunaH0.49
✅2026-09-16La LigaFC Barcelona 7–2 Real Racing Club de SantanderH0.26
❌2026-09-16La LigaRC Deportivo La Coruña 0–1 Sevilla FCH1.16
✅2026-09-17La LigaMálaga CF 1–3 Villarreal CFA0.63
✅2026-09-17La LigaReal Betis Balompié 1–0 Getafe CFH0.52
✅2026-09-18BundesligaFC Bayern München 7–0 1. FC Union BerlinH0.23
✅2026-09-18ChampionshipBristol City FC 1–0 Watford FCH0.85
❌2026-09-18Premier LeagueBrentford FC 3–0 Chelsea FCA1.01
❌2026-09-18La LigaRCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1–3 Elche CFH1.62
❌2026-09-18Ligue 1AS Monaco FC 2–1 Racing Club de LensA1.03
❌2026-09-18Serie AAC Monza 2–1 US Sassuolo CalcioA1.17
✅2026-09-19BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 1. FSV Mainz 05A0.82
❌2026-09-19BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 2–2 SC FreiburgH1.29
❌2026-09-19BundesligaHamburger SV 2–1 1. FC KölnA1.13
✅2026-09-19BundesligaSV Werder Bremen 3–2 FC AugsburgH0.99
✅2026-09-19BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia DortmundA1.01
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipBirmingham City FC 2–2 Middlesbrough FCA1.33
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipBurnley FC 1–1 Derby County FCH1.53
✅2026-09-19ChampionshipCardiff City FC 3–1 Charlton Athletic FCH0.85
✅2026-09-19ChampionshipLincoln City FC 1–2 Swansea City AFCA0.88
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipMillwall FC 2–2 West Ham United FCA1.23
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipPortsmouth FC 2–2 Blackburn Rovers FCH1.38
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipQueens Park Rangers FC 2–2 Preston North End FCH1.32
✅2026-09-19ChampionshipStoke City FC 2–1 Sheffield United FCH0.93
❌2026-09-19ChampionshipWrexham AFC 2–1 Southampton FCA1.29
❌2026-09-19Premier LeagueBrighton & Hove Albion FC 3–0 Arsenal FCA1.39
✅2026-09-19Premier LeagueEverton FC 1–0 Ipswich Town FCH0.64
✅2026-09-19Premier LeagueNewcastle United FC 2–1 Hull City AFCH0.52
❌2026-09-19Premier LeagueNottingham Forest FC 0–1 Coventry City FCH1.56
❌2026-09-19Premier LeagueTottenham Hotspur FC 2–3 Aston Villa FCH1.31
❌2026-09-19La LigaAthletic Club 0–0 Deportivo AlavésH1.32
❌2026-09-19La LigaCA Osasuna 1–1 Rayo Vallecano de MadridH1.25
✅2026-09-19La LigaRC Celta de Vigo 5–0 Real Racing Club de SantanderH0.71
✅2026-09-19La LigaSevilla FC 1–3 FC BarcelonaA0.46
✅2026-09-19Ligue 1Angers SCO 2–0 ESTAC TroyesH0.65
❌2026-09-19Ligue 1Le Mans FC 2–1 FC LorientA1.17
✅2026-09-19Ligue 1Olympique Lyonnais 4–0 Stade Rennais FC 1901H0.72
✅2026-09-19Ligue 1Paris FC 2–1 RC Strasbourg AlsaceH0.70
✅2026-09-19Ligue 1Toulouse FC 3–2 Havre ACH0.65
❌2026-09-19Serie AAS Roma 2–2 FC Internazionale MilanoH1.47
❌2026-09-19Serie ABologna FC 1909 1–1 Torino FCH1.28
❌2026-09-19Serie AUdinese Calcio 0–1 Cagliari CalcioH1.31
✅2026-09-19Serie AVenezia FC 0–2 SS LazioA0.78
✅2026-09-20BundesligaBayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 RB LeipzigH0.63
❌2026-09-20BundesligaFC Schalke 04 0–0 SV 07 ElversbergH1.25
❌2026-09-20BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 3–1 TSG 1899 HoffenheimA1.50
❌2026-09-20ChampionshipNorwich City FC 3–4 Bolton Wanderers FCH1.56
✅2026-09-20ChampionshipWolverhampton Wanderers FC 1–0 West Bromwich Albion FCH0.44
❌2026-09-20Premier LeagueAFC Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool FCH1.04
❌2026-09-20Premier LeagueFulham FC 1–1 Manchester United FCA1.43
❌2026-09-20Premier LeagueLeeds United FC 0–0 Crystal Palace FCH1.29
✅2026-09-20Premier LeagueManchester City FC 5–3 Sunderland AFCH0.25
❌2026-09-20La LigaClub Atlético de Madrid 2–1 Real Madrid CFA1.50
✅2026-09-20La LigaGetafe CF 1–0 Málaga CFH0.58
❌2026-09-20La LigaRC Deportivo La Coruña 1–1 Real Betis BalompiéA1.29
❌2026-09-20La LigaValencia CF 2–3 Real Sociedad de FútbolH1.25
✅2026-09-20La LigaVillarreal CF 3–1 Levante UDH0.58
✅2026-09-20Ligue 1AJ Auxerre 2–1 Stade Brestois 29H1.02
❌2026-09-20Ligue 1OGC Nice 2–1 Lille OSCA1.47
✅2026-09-20Ligue 1Olympique de Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain FCA0.77
✅2026-09-20Serie AAC Milan 3–0 US LecceH0.34
❌2026-09-20Serie AACF Fiorentina 1–1 SSC NapoliA1.23
❌2026-09-20Serie AFrosinone Calcio 2–0 Como 1907A1.81
✅2026-09-20Serie AJuventus FC 2–0 Atalanta BCH0.50
✅2026-09-20Serie AParma Calcio 1913 2–1 Genoa CFCH1.03

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Manchester City FC 47% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Manchester City FC1581.41.947%96%3%<1%
2Arsenal FC1280.72.043%96%3%<1%
3Liverpool FC967.04.75%59%20%<1%
4Brighton & Hove Albion FC1061.66.52%36%23%1%
5Manchester United FC556.48.4<1%19%20%2%
6Brentford FC955.78.71%17%19%3%
7Leeds United FC955.38.8<1%16%18%3%
8Chelsea FC753.49.6<1%12%16%4%
9Newcastle United FC853.49.6<1%12%16%5%
10Aston Villa FC452.79.9<1%11%15%5%
11Everton FC951.110.6<1%8%12%7%
12AFC Bournemouth350.910.7<1%8%12%7%
13Nottingham Forest FC546.912.4<1%4%7%14%
14Crystal Palace FC443.513.8<1%2%4%23%
15Fulham FC241.614.5<1%1%3%29%
16Sunderland AFC440.515.0<1%1%2%33%
17Coventry City FC339.515.4<1%1%2%38%
18Ipswich Town FC639.715.4<1%1%2%36%
19Tottenham Hotspur FC237.516.1<1%<1%1%45%
20Hull City AFC837.616.2<1%<1%1%45%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München1074.21.665%98%2%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund1267.22.724%87%8%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen758.54.95%56%20%<1%
4RB Leipzig653.16.82%33%22%2%
5SC Freiburg1052.27.11%29%22%2%
6VfB Stuttgart351.47.51%26%21%3%
71. FSV Mainz 05747.59.1<1%14%16%7%
8SV 07 Elversberg746.79.4<1%13%15%9%
9FC Augsburg744.910.2<1%9%12%12%
10TSG 1899 Hoffenheim344.210.5<1%8%12%13%
11Eintracht Frankfurt543.910.7<1%7%11%14%
12SC Paderborn 07443.710.8<1%7%11%15%
13SV Werder Bremen742.311.4<1%5%9%19%
14Hamburger SV339.212.7<1%3%6%29%
15FC Schalke 04539.212.7<1%3%5%29%
161. FC Köln437.013.6<1%2%3%38%
171. FC Union Berlin133.914.7<1%1%2%53%
18Borussia Mönchengladbach033.814.7<1%1%2%53%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 73% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona2189.61.473%100%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF1581.72.221%98%2%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid1674.93.26%89%9%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié1667.44.61%61%26%<1%
5Villarreal CF859.26.9<1%20%36%1%
6Athletic Club853.59.2<1%8%23%3%
7Real Sociedad de Fútbol1053.29.3<1%7%22%3%
8Sevilla FC1352.29.7<1%6%19%4%
9Rayo Vallecano de Madrid849.311.0<1%3%12%7%
10Deportivo Alavés1147.911.7<1%2%10%9%
11RC Celta de Vigo747.511.8<1%2%9%10%
12Real Racing Club de Santander744.913.1<1%1%6%17%
13CA Osasuna844.813.1<1%1%5%17%
14Levante UD544.513.2<1%1%5%19%
15Getafe CF844.113.4<1%1%5%19%
16Valencia CF443.413.7<1%1%4%22%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona742.714.1<1%1%3%24%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña1041.714.6<1%<1%3%27%
19Elche CF541.214.7<1%<1%2%30%
20Málaga CF327.819.1<1%<1%<1%88%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano1385.91.665%97%3%<1%
2AS Roma1376.73.217%78%14%<1%
3Juventus FC1070.54.66%53%26%<1%
4AC Milan1169.44.95%48%27%<1%
5SSC Napoli768.45.23%44%29%<1%
6SS Lazio1365.56.02%32%28%<1%
7Atalanta BC662.66.81%21%27%<1%
8Como 19071062.66.81%21%26%<1%
9Cagliari Calcio1247.911.7<1%1%4%5%
10Bologna FC 1909247.711.8<1%1%4%6%
11ACF Fiorentina446.812.1<1%1%4%8%
12US Sassuolo Calcio746.612.2<1%1%3%7%
13Frosinone Calcio1044.313.0<1%<1%2%10%
14Torino FC442.513.7<1%<1%1%16%
15Udinese Calcio442.313.7<1%<1%1%16%
16Parma Calcio 1913436.016.0<1%<1%<1%38%
17US Lecce635.616.2<1%<1%<1%40%
18Genoa CFC134.716.4<1%<1%<1%44%
19AC Monza434.116.6<1%<1%<1%47%
20Venezia FC030.917.6<1%<1%<1%62%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 61% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC872.11.761%96%3%<1%
2AS Monaco FC1363.23.716%71%16%<1%
3Lille OSC1059.44.78%55%21%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais1158.94.98%53%22%<1%
5Stade Rennais FC 19011055.36.13%36%24%1%
6Paris FC1151.67.41%22%21%2%
7Racing Club de Lens451.47.51%21%22%2%
8RC Strasbourg Alsace751.07.71%19%21%2%
9Olympique de Marseille348.48.7<1%13%17%4%
10FC Lorient541.911.3<1%4%7%14%
11Toulouse FC541.811.3<1%3%7%14%
12Stade Brestois 29539.612.2<1%2%5%20%
13OGC Nice539.712.2<1%2%5%20%
14AJ Auxerre637.812.9<1%1%3%27%
15Angers SCO735.114.0<1%1%2%38%
16ESTAC Troyes434.414.2<1%<1%1%42%
17Le Mans FC632.414.9<1%<1%1%52%
18Havre AC230.315.5<1%<1%<1%62%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

🇺🇸 MLS — Shield, playoffs and MLS Cup

Eastern Conference — Inter Miami CF 28% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.1Nashville SC5369.7100%88%26%16%72%
2.2Inter Miami CF4462.4100%11%28%16%8%
4.0Chicago Fire FC3955.0100%1%10%5%<1%
4.6Charlotte FC3953.299%<1%10%4%<1%
4.7New England Revolution4052.599%<1%6%2%<1%
6.8FC Cincinnati3148.089%<1%6%3%<1%
7.7Orlando City SC3145.779%<1%4%2%<1%
8.0Philadelphia Union3045.075%<1%5%2%<1%
8.8New York City FC2943.763%<1%3%1%<1%
10.7Toronto FC2940.530%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.0D.C. United2839.825%<1%<1%<1%<1%
11.1New York Red Bulls2739.324%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.9Columbus Crew2337.214%<1%0%<1%<1%
13.5Atlanta United FC2233.23%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.1CF Montréal2131.71%<1%<1%<1%<1%

Western Conference — Vancouver Whitecaps FC 30% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.4Vancouver Whitecaps FC4664.2100%76%30%17%19%
3.1Houston Dynamo FC4357.7100%12%13%6%1%
3.6FC Dallas4056.499%7%13%6%<1%
4.1Los Angeles FC4055.099%4%18%9%<1%
5.6St. Louis City SC3852.194%1%7%3%<1%
5.7San Jose Earthquakes3851.493%1%5%2%<1%
8.8Portland Timbers3245.761%<1%3%1%<1%
9.0Colorado Rapids3245.056%<1%2%1%<1%
9.5Real Salt Lake2944.448%<1%2%1%<1%
9.8San Diego FC3044.045%<1%2%1%<1%
9.9Seattle Sounders FC2744.043%<1%2%1%<1%
10.2Minnesota United FC2943.537%<1%2%1%<1%
11.6LA Galaxy2940.817%<1%1%<1%<1%
12.9Austin FC2637.86%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.9Sporting Kansas City1525.5<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

153 regular-season matches left, replayed 20,000 times with live in-sim Elo, then the full playoff bracket each time. Seed = expected conference finish; 1 seed = finishing top of the conference; Conf = reaching MLS Cup; Shield = best record in the league. MLS publishes no machine-readable fixture list, so the run-in is reconstructed from the league's format: 128 conference fixtures are exact, and the 25 cross-conference ones are known only as per-club home/away counts, so every replay draws its own pairing of them.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

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