Soccer Update

Run date 2026-10-12 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-12Coventry City FC v Newcastle United FC29% / 32% / 39%Newcastle United FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-17Brentford FC v Liverpool FC34% / 29% / 37%Liverpool FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-17Everton FC v Chelsea FC40% / 27% / 34%Everton FC1–0 (9%)
2026-10-17Fulham FC v Hull City AFC56% / 25% / 19%Fulham FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-17Manchester City FC v Ipswich Town FC84% / 10% / 5%Manchester City FC2–0 (15%)
2026-10-17Newcastle United FC v Aston Villa FC37% / 29% / 34%Newcastle United FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-18AFC Bournemouth v Sunderland AFC49% / 28% / 24%AFC Bournemouth1–0 (11%)
2026-10-18Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Crystal Palace FC56% / 26% / 18%Brighton & Hove Albion FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-18Leeds United FC v Manchester United FC28% / 27% / 45%Manchester United FC0–1 (8%)
2026-10-18Nottingham Forest FC v Arsenal FC24% / 26% / 50%Arsenal FC0–1 (12%)

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-12Levante UD v Sevilla FC44% / 31% / 25%Levante UD1–0 (10%)
2026-10-16RC Deportivo La Coruña v Levante UD39% / 31% / 29%RC Deportivo La Coruña1–0 (10%)
2026-10-17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona v Club Atlético de Madrid25% / 22% / 53%Club Atlético de Madrid0–1 (11%)
2026-10-17Real Betis Balompié v FC Barcelona18% / 18% / 64%FC Barcelona0–1 (11%)
2026-10-17Valencia CF v Athletic Club29% / 28% / 42%Athletic Club0–1 (8%)
2026-10-17Villarreal CF v Elche CF72% / 17% / 12%Villarreal CF1–0 (13%)
2026-10-18CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander48% / 28% / 24%CA Osasuna1–0 (10%)
2026-10-18Málaga CF v Real Sociedad de Fútbol27% / 30% / 43%Real Sociedad de Fútbol0–1 (10%)
2026-10-18RC Celta de Vigo v Deportivo Alavés45% / 28% / 27%RC Celta de Vigo1–0 (11%)
2026-10-18Real Madrid CF v Sevilla FC81% / 12% / 7%Real Madrid CF2–0 (15%)

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-12Atalanta BC v Venezia FC55% / 27% / 19%Atalanta BC1–0 (16%)
2026-10-12Torino FC v Udinese Calcio35% / 32% / 33%Torino FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-16Frosinone Calcio v US Sassuolo Calcio28% / 28% / 44%US Sassuolo Calcio0–1 (10%)
2026-10-17AS Roma v Genoa CFC81% / 11% / 7%AS Roma1–0 (16%)
2026-10-17Bologna FC 1909 v FC Internazionale Milano17% / 20% / 63%FC Internazionale Milano0–1 (15%)
2026-10-17Venezia FC v SSC Napoli17% / 21% / 62%SSC Napoli0–1 (15%)
2026-10-18AC Milan v Atalanta BC54% / 26% / 19%AC Milan1–0 (12%)
2026-10-18ACF Fiorentina v Como 190727% / 28% / 45%Como 19070–1 (11%)
2026-10-18Juventus FC v SS Lazio64% / 20% / 15%Juventus FC1–0 (13%)
2026-10-18Udinese Calcio v US Lecce54% / 28% / 18%Udinese Calcio1–0 (13%)

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-13Birmingham City FC v Preston North End FC49% / 27% / 24%Birmingham City FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-13Bristol City FC v Blackburn Rovers FC49% / 27% / 24%Bristol City FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-13Burnley FC v Charlton Athletic FC53% / 26% / 21%Burnley FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-13Cardiff City FC v Watford FC34% / 32% / 33%Cardiff City FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-13Millwall FC v Swansea City AFC45% / 26% / 29%Millwall FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-13Stoke City FC v Middlesbrough FC33% / 27% / 41%Middlesbrough FC0–1 (11%)
2026-10-13Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v Bolton Wanderers FC66% / 23% / 12%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–0 (13%)
2026-10-13Wrexham AFC v West Bromwich Albion FC39% / 31% / 30%Wrexham AFC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-14Lincoln City FC v West Ham United FC19% / 28% / 53%West Ham United FC0–2 (15%)
2026-10-14Norwich City FC v Southampton FC30% / 28% / 42%Southampton FC0–1 (10%)
2026-10-14Portsmouth FC v Sheffield United FC34% / 28% / 39%Sheffield United FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-14Queens Park Rangers FC v Derby County FC44% / 30% / 27%Queens Park Rangers FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-16Burnley FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers FC27% / 31% / 42%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-17Birmingham City FC v Queens Park Rangers FC47% / 26% / 27%Birmingham City FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-17Bristol City FC v Sheffield United FC36% / 27% / 36%Sheffield United FC0–1 (8%)
2026-10-17Derby County FC v Stoke City FC40% / 26% / 33%Derby County FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-17Middlesbrough FC v Cardiff City FC60% / 23% / 17%Middlesbrough FC1–0 (13%)
2026-10-17Millwall FC v Lincoln City FC67% / 18% / 15%Millwall FC2–0 (16%)
2026-10-17Norwich City FC v Portsmouth FC52% / 25% / 24%Norwich City FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-17Southampton FC v Bolton Wanderers FC61% / 22% / 17%Southampton FC1–0 (13%)
2026-10-17Swansea City AFC v West Ham United FC20% / 31% / 50%West Ham United FC0–1 (10%)
2026-10-17Watford FC v Charlton Athletic FC45% / 30% / 25%Watford FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-17West Bromwich Albion FC v Blackburn Rovers FC46% / 28% / 26%West Bromwich Albion FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-17Wrexham AFC v Preston North End FC49% / 27% / 24%Wrexham AFC1–0 (12%)

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-16Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln43% / 29% / 28%Eintracht Frankfurt2–1 (10%)
2026-10-171. FC Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund16% / 24% / 61%Borussia Dortmund1–2 (10%)
2026-10-17FC Bayern München v RB Leipzig71% / 16% / 13%FC Bayern München2–1 (10%)
2026-10-17FC Schalke 04 v 1. FSV Mainz 0525% / 26% / 49%1. FSV Mainz 051–2 (8%)
2026-10-17Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart24% / 28% / 47%VfB Stuttgart1–2 (9%)
2026-10-17SV 07 Elversberg v FC Augsburg35% / 29% / 36%FC Augsburg1–2 (7%)
2026-10-17SV Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 0749% / 24% / 27%SV Werder Bremen2–1 (9%)
2026-10-18Bayer 04 Leverkusen v SC Freiburg65% / 20% / 15%Bayer 04 Leverkusen2–1 (10%)
2026-10-18Borussia Mönchengladbach v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28% / 25% / 47%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1–2 (8%)

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-16Le Mans FC v Toulouse FC29% / 28% / 43%Toulouse FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-17ESTAC Troyes v Racing Club de Lens19% / 24% / 56%Racing Club de Lens0–1 (10%)
2026-10-17Lille OSC v Stade Brestois 2952% / 26% / 22%Lille OSC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-17RC Strasbourg Alsace v Paris Saint-Germain FC19% / 21% / 60%Paris Saint-Germain FC0–1 (11%)
2026-10-18Angers SCO v Olympique de Marseille24% / 29% / 47%Olympique de Marseille0–1 (10%)
2026-10-18FC Lorient v AS Monaco FC30% / 28% / 42%AS Monaco FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-18Havre AC v AJ Auxerre42% / 31% / 27%Havre AC2–1 (9%)
2026-10-18Olympique Lyonnais v OGC Nice63% / 21% / 15%Olympique Lyonnais1–0 (11%)
2026-10-18Paris FC v Stade Rennais FC 190147% / 28% / 25%Paris FC2–1 (9%)

📊 This week against trend

72 fixtures · 86 clubs with enough history to compare. Each club is measured against its own mean in completed seasons before 2026-27, not against a league average.

The slate as a whole

MetricThis weekClub normDiffDirection
npxG conceded1.551.28+0.27↑ worse
xG conceded1.641.40+0.23↑ worse
npxG created1.561.32+0.24↑ better
xG created1.651.44+0.21↑ better
Deep completions allowed6.936.12+0.81↑ worse
PPDA (pressing)13.1411.94+1.21↑ worse
Deep completions7.196.31+0.89↑ better
xG per shot0.1210.116+0.005↑ better
Expected points1.401.41-0.01↓ worse
Deep share0.5090.508+0.001↑ better

Furthest from their own norm

ClubMetricNowNormDirectionFixture
FC LorientPPDA (pressing)25.5515.05↑ worseFC Lorient v AS Monaco FC
FC AugsburgPPDA (pressing)23.3313.43↑ worseSV 07 Elversberg v FC Augsburg
FC AugsburgDeep completions allowed13.217.70↑ worseSV 07 Elversberg v FC Augsburg
Eintracht FrankfurtnpxG conceded2.251.38↑ worseEintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln
1. FSV Mainz 05xG per shot0.1640.115↑ betterFC Schalke 04 v 1. FSV Mainz 05
Villarreal CFxG per shot0.1810.132↑ betterVillarreal CF v Elche CF
Olympique de MarseillenpxG conceded1.911.08↑ worseAngers SCO v Olympique de Marseille
Eintracht FrankfurtxG conceded2.351.47↑ worseEintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln

"Now" is the exponentially weighted form the model actually used, which early in a season still carries the back end of the last one. Rows are ranked by how large the gap is relative to how much clubs differ on that metric at all, so an xG swing and a PPDA swing are comparable. A club with fewer than 20 prior-season matches has no norm and is left out rather than compared against someone else's.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days0——
Last 30 days12446.8%1.0276
Season to date30648.4%1.0152

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga3650.0%0.9618
Championship8243.9%1.0730
Premier League4940.8%1.0547
La Liga5850.0%0.9553
Ligue 13548.6%1.0746
Serie A4660.9%0.9422

No matches graded in the past week.

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Manchester City FC 47% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Manchester City FC1581.41.947%96%3%<1%
2Arsenal FC1280.72.043%96%3%<1%
3Liverpool FC967.14.75%59%20%<1%
4Brighton & Hove Albion FC1061.66.52%36%23%1%
5Manchester United FC556.38.4<1%19%20%2%
6Brentford FC955.88.60%17%19%3%
7Leeds United FC955.28.90%16%18%3%
8Chelsea FC753.49.6<1%12%16%5%
9Newcastle United FC853.39.6<1%12%15%4%
10Aston Villa FC452.89.8<1%11%15%5%
11Everton FC951.110.6<1%8%12%6%
12AFC Bournemouth351.010.6<1%8%12%7%
13Nottingham Forest FC546.812.4<1%4%7%14%
14Crystal Palace FC443.413.8<1%2%4%23%
15Fulham FC241.714.5<1%1%3%29%
16Sunderland AFC440.415.0<1%1%3%34%
17Coventry City FC339.615.3<1%1%2%37%
18Ipswich Town FC639.515.4<1%1%2%36%
19Tottenham Hotspur FC237.616.1<1%<1%1%45%
20Hull City AFC837.616.2<1%<1%1%45%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München1074.21.665%98%1%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund1267.22.724%87%8%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen758.64.85%57%20%<1%
4RB Leipzig653.26.82%33%23%2%
5SC Freiburg1052.37.12%29%22%2%
6VfB Stuttgart351.37.51%25%21%3%
71. FSV Mainz 05747.59.1<1%14%16%7%
8SV 07 Elversberg746.89.4<1%13%15%8%
9FC Augsburg744.810.3<1%9%12%12%
10TSG 1899 Hoffenheim344.210.5<1%8%12%14%
11Eintracht Frankfurt544.010.6<1%8%11%14%
12SC Paderborn 07443.710.8<1%7%11%15%
13SV Werder Bremen742.311.4<1%5%9%18%
14Hamburger SV339.212.7<1%3%6%29%
15FC Schalke 04539.212.7<1%3%5%29%
161. FC Köln436.913.6<1%2%3%39%
171. FC Union Berlin133.914.7<1%1%2%52%
18Borussia Mönchengladbach033.814.8<1%1%2%53%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 72% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona2189.51.472%100%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF1581.82.221%98%2%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid1675.03.26%89%9%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié1667.54.61%61%26%<1%
5Villarreal CF859.26.9<1%20%36%1%
6Athletic Club853.59.2<1%8%23%3%
7Real Sociedad de Fútbol1053.19.3<1%7%22%3%
8Sevilla FC1352.29.7<1%5%19%4%
9Rayo Vallecano de Madrid849.311.0<1%3%12%8%
10Deportivo Alavés1147.911.7<1%2%9%9%
11RC Celta de Vigo747.611.8<1%2%9%10%
12Real Racing Club de Santander744.913.1<1%1%6%17%
13CA Osasuna844.813.1<1%1%5%17%
14Levante UD544.513.2<1%1%5%19%
15Getafe CF844.113.4<1%1%5%19%
16Valencia CF443.413.7<1%1%4%21%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona742.614.1<1%1%3%24%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña1041.614.6<1%<1%2%27%
19Elche CF541.114.8<1%<1%2%30%
20Málaga CF327.819.1<1%<1%<1%88%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano1385.81.665%97%3%<1%
2AS Roma1376.83.217%78%15%<1%
3Juventus FC1070.54.66%54%26%<1%
4AC Milan1169.64.95%49%27%<1%
5SSC Napoli768.35.23%43%29%<1%
6SS Lazio1365.66.02%32%28%<1%
7Atalanta BC662.66.81%21%26%<1%
8Como 19071062.56.91%21%26%<1%
9Cagliari Calcio1247.811.7<1%1%4%5%
10Bologna FC 1909247.711.8<1%1%4%6%
11ACF Fiorentina446.712.1<1%1%4%8%
12US Sassuolo Calcio746.512.2<1%1%3%7%
13Frosinone Calcio1044.413.0<1%<1%2%10%
14Torino FC442.513.7<1%<1%1%16%
15Udinese Calcio442.313.7<1%<1%1%16%
16Parma Calcio 1913436.016.0<1%<1%<1%38%
17US Lecce635.616.1<1%<1%<1%40%
18Genoa CFC134.716.4<1%<1%<1%44%
19AC Monza434.016.7<1%<1%<1%48%
20Venezia FC030.917.6<1%<1%<1%62%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 61% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC872.11.761%96%3%<1%
2AS Monaco FC1363.33.616%72%16%<1%
3Lille OSC1059.44.78%55%21%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais1159.04.97%53%22%<1%
5Stade Rennais FC 19011055.26.13%36%24%1%
6Paris FC1151.77.42%22%21%2%
7Racing Club de Lens451.47.51%21%22%2%
8RC Strasbourg Alsace751.07.71%19%21%2%
9Olympique de Marseille348.48.71%13%18%4%
10FC Lorient542.011.2<1%4%7%13%
11Toulouse FC541.811.3<1%3%7%14%
12Stade Brestois 29539.612.2<1%2%5%20%
13OGC Nice539.512.3<1%2%5%21%
14AJ Auxerre637.813.0<1%1%3%27%
15Angers SCO735.014.0<1%<1%2%38%
16ESTAC Troyes434.314.3<1%<1%1%42%
17Le Mans FC632.514.9<1%<1%1%52%
18Havre AC230.415.5<1%<1%1%61%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

🇺🇸 MLS — Shield, playoffs and MLS Cup

Eastern Conference — Nashville SC 29% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.0Nashville SC6373.5100%100%29%19%99%
2.6Inter Miami CF4959.8100%<1%24%14%<1%
3.4Chicago Fire FC4857.0100%<1%11%6%<1%
4.5Charlotte FC4654.2100%<1%10%5%<1%
4.7New England Revolution4653.2100%<1%5%2%<1%
5.5Philadelphia Union4251.3100%<1%11%5%<1%
7.7FC Cincinnati3646.987%<1%4%2%<1%
7.9Orlando City SC3745.985%<1%3%1%<1%
9.0New York Red Bulls3643.966%<1%1%<1%<1%
9.9New York City FC3342.139%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.6Toronto FC3238.910%<1%<1%<1%<1%
11.8Columbus Crew2937.67%<1%<1%<1%<1%
12.2D.C. United3037.36%<1%<1%<1%<1%
13.5Atlanta United FC2733.81%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.6CF Montréal2430.1<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

Western Conference — Vancouver Whitecaps FC 27% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.7Vancouver Whitecaps FC5160.6100%57%27%14%<1%
2.4St. Louis City SC5058.8100%28%16%7%<1%
3.2FC Dallas4757.0100%10%14%6%<1%
4.2San Jose Earthquakes4654.3100%3%8%3%<1%
4.7Houston Dynamo FC4553.1100%2%9%3%<1%
6.0Los Angeles FC4250.599%<1%12%5%<1%
6.4Seattle Sounders FC4149.598%<1%9%4%<1%
8.9Colorado Rapids3744.169%<1%2%1%<1%
9.9LA Galaxy3642.947%<1%1%<1%<1%
10.8Portland Timbers3340.828%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.1Real Salt Lake3240.223%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.2San Diego FC3240.220%<1%1%<1%<1%
12.3Austin FC3138.59%<1%<1%<1%<1%
12.3Minnesota United FC3038.48%<1%<1%<1%<1%
14.9Sporting Kansas City2228.2<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

90 regular-season matches left, replayed 20,000 times with live in-sim Elo, then the full playoff bracket each time. Seed = expected conference finish; 1 seed = finishing top of the conference; Conf = reaching MLS Cup; Shield = best record in the league. MLS publishes no machine-readable fixture list, so the run-in is reconstructed from the league's format: 82 conference fixtures are exact, and the 8 cross-conference ones are known only as per-club home/away counts, so every replay draws its own pairing of them.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

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