Soccer Update

Run date 2026-10-23 · fixtures for the next 7 days, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts for the top 5 leagues.

📅 Games this week

Bundesliga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-23VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach64% / 22% / 13%VfB Stuttgart2–1 (10%)
2026-10-241. FC Köln v FC Schalke 0453% / 26% / 21%1. FC Köln2–1 (9%)
2026-10-241. FSV Mainz 05 v SV Werder Bremen54% / 25% / 21%1. FSV Mainz 052–1 (10%)
2026-10-24Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt67% / 19% / 13%Borussia Dortmund2–1 (10%)
2026-10-24FC Augsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin48% / 30% / 22%FC Augsburg2–1 (10%)
2026-10-24RB Leipzig v SV 07 Elversberg66% / 20% / 14%RB Leipzig2–1 (10%)
2026-10-24SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV38% / 30% / 32%SC Paderborn 072–1 (9%)
2026-10-25SC Freiburg v FC Bayern München18% / 19% / 63%FC Bayern München1–2 (10%)
2026-10-25TSG 1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer 04 Leverkusen41% / 26% / 33%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim2–1 (8%)

Championship

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-23Bolton Wanderers FC v Middlesbrough FC30% / 27% / 43%Middlesbrough FC0–1 (11%)
2026-10-24Blackburn Rovers FC v Wrexham AFC38% / 29% / 33%Blackburn Rovers FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-24Cardiff City FC v Birmingham City FC33% / 29% / 37%Birmingham City FC0–1 (10%)
2026-10-24Charlton Athletic FC v Norwich City FC35% / 25% / 40%Norwich City FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-24Lincoln City FC v Burnley FC28% / 25% / 47%Burnley FC0–1 (13%)
2026-10-24Portsmouth FC v Millwall FC35% / 26% / 39%Millwall FC0–1 (10%)
2026-10-24Preston North End FC v West Bromwich Albion FC37% / 28% / 34%Preston North End FC1–0 (9%)
2026-10-24Queens Park Rangers FC v Swansea City AFC37% / 29% / 34%Queens Park Rangers FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-24Sheffield United FC v Derby County FC47% / 24% / 29%Sheffield United FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-24Stoke City FC v Bristol City FC43% / 28% / 29%Stoke City FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-24West Ham United FC v Southampton FC55% / 26% / 20%West Ham United FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-24Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v Watford FC62% / 23% / 15%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC1–0 (13%)

Premier League

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-23Ipswich Town FC v Nottingham Forest FC23% / 27% / 51%Nottingham Forest FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-24Arsenal FC v Everton FC71% / 17% / 12%Arsenal FC2–0 (14%)
2026-10-24Aston Villa FC v Manchester City FC20% / 21% / 59%Manchester City FC0–1 (11%)
2026-10-24Chelsea FC v Tottenham Hotspur FC53% / 24% / 23%Chelsea FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-24Coventry City FC v Fulham FC28% / 28% / 44%Fulham FC0–1 (8%)
2026-10-25Crystal Palace FC v Newcastle United FC33% / 32% / 35%Newcastle United FC0–1 (9%)
2026-10-25Hull City AFC v Brentford FC22% / 29% / 49%Brentford FC0–1 (10%)
2026-10-25Liverpool FC v Brighton & Hove Albion FC44% / 25% / 31%Liverpool FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-25Manchester United FC v AFC Bournemouth49% / 25% / 26%Manchester United FC1–0 (11%)
2026-10-25Sunderland AFC v Leeds United FC37% / 31% / 32%Sunderland AFC1–0 (8%)

Ligue 1

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-23Stade Brestois 29 v OGC Nice41% / 32% / 27%Stade Brestois 291–0 (9%)
2026-10-24Racing Club de Lens v Paris FC46% / 28% / 26%Racing Club de Lens1–0 (10%)
2026-10-24Toulouse FC v ESTAC Troyes63% / 22% / 15%Toulouse FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-25AJ Auxerre v Le Mans FC49% / 29% / 22%AJ Auxerre1–0 (10%)
2026-10-25AS Monaco FC v Lille OSC41% / 26% / 33%AS Monaco FC1–0 (9%)
2026-10-25Angers SCO v FC Lorient30% / 29% / 42%FC Lorient0–1 (9%)
2026-10-25Olympique de Marseille v Havre AC57% / 26% / 17%Olympique de Marseille1–0 (11%)
2026-10-25Paris Saint-Germain FC v Olympique Lyonnais69% / 18% / 13%Paris Saint-Germain FC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-25Stade Rennais FC 1901 v RC Strasbourg Alsace45% / 29% / 26%Stade Rennais FC 19011–0 (9%)

Serie A

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-23Torino FC v AC Monza44% / 29% / 27%Torino FC1–0 (13%)
2026-10-24Cagliari Calcio v Bologna FC 190931% / 32% / 37%Bologna FC 19090–1 (11%)
2026-10-24Como 1907 v US Sassuolo Calcio64% / 20% / 16%Como 19071–0 (14%)
2026-10-24SS Lazio v Parma Calcio 191363% / 23% / 13%SS Lazio1–0 (15%)
2026-10-24SSC Napoli v AS Roma36% / 31% / 33%SSC Napoli1–0 (11%)
2026-10-25Atalanta BC v Frosinone Calcio51% / 27% / 21%Atalanta BC1–0 (15%)
2026-10-25FC Internazionale Milano v ACF Fiorentina80% / 12% / 9%FC Internazionale Milano1–0 (16%)
2026-10-25Genoa CFC v Venezia FC46% / 28% / 25%Genoa CFC1–0 (12%)
2026-10-25US Lecce v Juventus FC11% / 16% / 72%Juventus FC0–1 (15%)
2026-10-25Udinese Calcio v AC Milan18% / 21% / 61%AC Milan0–1 (13%)
2026-10-27AS Roma v Cagliari Calcio80% / 12% / 7%AS Roma1–0 (16%)
2026-10-27Torino FC v Como 190722% / 21% / 57%Como 19070–1 (12%)
2026-10-27US Sassuolo Calcio v SS Lazio33% / 29% / 37%SS Lazio0–1 (12%)
2026-10-28AC Milan v Bologna FC 190962% / 22% / 16%AC Milan1–0 (14%)
2026-10-28AC Monza v SSC Napoli13% / 19% / 68%SSC Napoli0–1 (15%)
2026-10-28Genoa CFC v Juventus FC13% / 20% / 67%Juventus FC0–1 (14%)
2026-10-28Parma Calcio 1913 v Udinese Calcio38% / 31% / 31%Parma Calcio 19131–0 (10%)
2026-10-28Venezia FC v FC Internazionale Milano9% / 14% / 77%FC Internazionale Milano0–1 (17%)
2026-10-29ACF Fiorentina v Atalanta BC38% / 27% / 35%ACF Fiorentina1–0 (9%)
2026-10-29Frosinone Calcio v US Lecce47% / 28% / 25%Frosinone Calcio1–0 (12%)

La Liga

DateMatchH / D / APickProj score
2026-10-25Athletic Club v Getafe CF60% / 24% / 16%Athletic Club1–0 (11%)
2026-10-25Club Atlético de Madrid v RC Deportivo La Coruña78% / 14% / 8%Club Atlético de Madrid2–0 (14%)
2026-10-25Deportivo Alavés v Málaga CF55% / 26% / 19%Deportivo Alavés1–0 (12%)
2026-10-25FC Barcelona v Real Madrid CF57% / 23% / 20%FC Barcelona1–0 (11%)
2026-10-25RC Celta de Vigo v Real Betis Balompié34% / 32% / 34%RC Celta de Vigo1–0 (9%)
2026-10-25Rayo Vallecano de Madrid v Elche CF51% / 28% / 22%Rayo Vallecano de Madrid1–0 (11%)
2026-10-25Real Racing Club de Santander v RCD Espanyol de Barcelona39% / 32% / 29%Real Racing Club de Santander1–0 (10%)
2026-10-25Real Sociedad de Fútbol v Levante UD46% / 29% / 25%Real Sociedad de Fútbol1–0 (11%)
2026-10-25Sevilla FC v CA Osasuna43% / 30% / 27%Sevilla FC1–0 (10%)
2026-10-25Valencia CF v Villarreal CF27% / 27% / 46%Villarreal CF0–1 (9%)

📊 This week against trend

70 fixtures · 92 clubs with enough history to compare. Each club is measured against its own mean in completed seasons before 2026-27, not against a league average.

The slate as a whole

MetricThis weekClub normDiffDirection
npxG conceded1.541.28+0.26↑ worse
xG conceded1.631.40+0.23↑ worse
npxG created1.551.30+0.25↑ better
xG created1.651.43+0.22↑ better
Deep completions allowed6.956.09+0.86↑ worse
PPDA (pressing)13.4111.95+1.46↑ worse
Deep completions7.026.21+0.81↑ better
xG per shot0.1200.115+0.005↑ better
Deep share0.5030.505-0.003↓ worse
Expected points1.411.40+0.00level

Furthest from their own norm

ClubMetricNowNormDirectionFixture
FC LorientPPDA (pressing)26.6015.05↑ worseAngers SCO v FC Lorient
FC AugsburgDeep completions allowed12.547.70↑ worseFC Augsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin
RB LeipzignpxG conceded2.081.19↑ worseRB Leipzig v SV 07 Elversberg
Udinese CalcionpxG conceded2.131.27↑ worseUdinese Calcio v AC Milan
Udinese CalcionpxG conceded2.131.27↑ worseParma Calcio 1913 v Udinese Calcio
Stade Rennais FC 1901xG conceded2.131.22↑ worseStade Rennais FC 1901 v RC Strasbourg Alsace
1. FSV Mainz 05xG per shot0.1640.115↑ better1. FSV Mainz 05 v SV Werder Bremen
Villarreal CFxG per shot0.1810.132↑ betterValencia CF v Villarreal CF

"Now" is the exponentially weighted form the model actually used, which early in a season still carries the back end of the last one. Rows are ranked by how large the gap is relative to how much clubs differ on that metric at all, so an xG swing and a PPDA swing are comparable. A club with fewer than 20 prior-season matches has no norm and is left out rather than compared against someone else's.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Last 7 days0——
Last 30 days0——
Season to date30648.4%1.0152

Season record by league

LeagueGradedPick accuracyLog loss
Bundesliga3650.0%0.9618
Championship8243.9%1.0730
Premier League4940.8%1.0547
La Liga5850.0%0.9553
Ligue 13548.6%1.0746
Serie A4660.9%0.9422

No matches graded in the past week.

🔮 Final-table forecasts

Premier League — Manchester City FC 47% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Manchester City FC1581.51.947%96%3%<1%
2Arsenal FC1280.72.043%96%3%<1%
3Liverpool FC967.14.75%59%19%<1%
4Brighton & Hove Albion FC1061.66.52%36%23%1%
5Manchester United FC556.48.31%19%20%2%
6Brentford FC955.88.61%17%19%2%
7Leeds United FC955.18.91%16%18%3%
8Chelsea FC753.49.6<1%13%16%5%
9Newcastle United FC853.29.7<1%11%16%4%
10Aston Villa FC452.89.8<1%11%15%5%
11Everton FC951.110.6<1%8%12%6%
12AFC Bournemouth351.010.6<1%8%12%7%
13Nottingham Forest FC546.812.4<1%4%7%14%
14Crystal Palace FC443.513.8<1%2%4%23%
15Fulham FC241.714.5<1%1%3%29%
16Sunderland AFC440.515.0<1%1%2%33%
17Coventry City FC339.615.4<1%1%2%37%
18Ipswich Town FC639.615.4<1%1%2%36%
19Tottenham Hotspur FC237.416.2<1%<1%1%46%
20Hull City AFC837.616.2<1%<1%1%45%

Bundesliga — FC Bayern München 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Bayern München1074.21.665%98%2%<1%
2Borussia Dortmund1267.22.724%88%8%<1%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen758.54.95%56%20%<1%
4RB Leipzig653.26.82%33%22%2%
5SC Freiburg1052.17.11%29%22%3%
6VfB Stuttgart351.37.51%26%21%3%
71. FSV Mainz 05747.59.1<1%14%17%7%
8SV 07 Elversberg746.89.4<1%13%15%8%
9FC Augsburg745.010.2<1%9%13%12%
10TSG 1899 Hoffenheim344.210.5<1%8%12%14%
11Eintracht Frankfurt543.910.7<1%7%11%14%
12SC Paderborn 07443.710.7<1%7%11%15%
13SV Werder Bremen742.311.4<1%5%9%18%
14Hamburger SV339.212.7<1%3%6%30%
15FC Schalke 04539.212.7<1%3%5%29%
161. FC Köln436.913.7<1%2%3%39%
171. FC Union Berlin134.014.7<1%1%2%52%
18Borussia Mönchengladbach033.714.8<1%1%2%53%

La Liga — FC Barcelona 72% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Barcelona2189.51.472%100%<1%<1%
2Real Madrid CF1581.72.220%98%2%<1%
3Club Atlético de Madrid1675.03.26%89%9%<1%
4Real Betis Balompié1667.44.61%61%26%<1%
5Villarreal CF859.36.9<1%20%36%1%
6Athletic Club853.59.2<1%8%22%3%
7Real Sociedad de Fútbol1053.29.3<1%7%21%3%
8Sevilla FC1352.29.7<1%5%19%3%
9Rayo Vallecano de Madrid849.411.0<1%3%13%7%
10Deportivo Alavés1148.011.6<1%2%10%9%
11RC Celta de Vigo747.511.8<1%2%9%10%
12Real Racing Club de Santander744.813.1<1%1%5%17%
13CA Osasuna844.813.1<1%1%5%17%
14Levante UD544.513.2<1%1%5%18%
15Getafe CF844.113.4<1%1%5%19%
16Valencia CF443.413.7<1%1%4%22%
17RCD Espanyol de Barcelona742.714.1<1%1%3%24%
18RC Deportivo La Coruña1041.714.6<1%<1%2%27%
19Elche CF541.114.8<1%<1%2%31%
20Málaga CF327.819.1<1%<1%<1%87%

Serie A — FC Internazionale Milano 65% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1FC Internazionale Milano1385.81.665%97%3%<1%
2AS Roma1376.93.217%79%15%<1%
3Juventus FC1070.54.66%53%26%<1%
4AC Milan1169.44.95%48%27%<1%
5SSC Napoli768.45.23%44%29%<1%
6SS Lazio1365.56.02%32%28%<1%
7Atalanta BC662.76.81%21%27%<1%
8Como 19071062.66.81%22%25%<1%
9Cagliari Calcio1247.911.7<1%1%4%5%
10Bologna FC 1909247.811.7<1%1%4%6%
11ACF Fiorentina446.812.1<1%1%4%7%
12US Sassuolo Calcio746.512.2<1%1%3%7%
13Frosinone Calcio1044.313.0<1%<1%2%11%
14Torino FC442.413.7<1%<1%1%16%
15Udinese Calcio442.213.8<1%<1%1%16%
16Parma Calcio 1913435.916.0<1%<1%<1%39%
17US Lecce635.616.1<1%<1%<1%40%
18Genoa CFC134.716.4<1%<1%<1%44%
19AC Monza434.016.6<1%<1%<1%47%
20Venezia FC030.817.6<1%<1%<1%62%

Ligue 1 — Paris Saint-Germain FC 61% for the title

ProjTeamPtsxPtsxPosTitleUCLUELRel
1Paris Saint-Germain FC872.01.761%96%3%<1%
2AS Monaco FC1363.33.716%72%16%<1%
3Lille OSC1059.44.78%55%22%<1%
4Olympique Lyonnais1158.94.97%53%22%<1%
5Stade Rennais FC 19011055.36.13%36%24%1%
6Paris FC1151.77.42%22%22%2%
7Racing Club de Lens451.47.51%21%22%2%
8RC Strasbourg Alsace750.97.71%20%21%2%
9Olympique de Marseille348.48.7<1%13%17%4%
10FC Lorient542.011.2<1%4%8%13%
11Toulouse FC541.811.4<1%3%7%14%
12Stade Brestois 29539.712.2<1%2%5%20%
13OGC Nice539.612.2<1%2%5%21%
14AJ Auxerre637.812.9<1%1%3%27%
15Angers SCO735.114.0<1%0%2%38%
16ESTAC Troyes434.314.3<1%<1%1%42%
17Le Mans FC632.415.0<1%<1%1%52%
18Havre AC230.415.5<1%<1%1%61%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (30,000 replays of the remaining fixtures with live in-sim Elo). Proj = projected finish ordered by expected position; xPts / xPos = expected points and position; UCL = top 4, UEL = 5th–6th, Rel = bottom 3.

🇺🇸 MLS — Shield, playoffs and MLS Cup

Eastern Conference — Nashville SC 29% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.0Nashville SC6774.2100%100%29%19%100%
2.2Inter Miami CF5562.2100%<1%26%17%<1%
3.3New England Revolution5256.8100%<1%7%3%<1%
4.5Chicago Fire FC4854.0100%<1%7%3%<1%
5.1Charlotte FC4753.0100%<1%8%4%<1%
5.1Philadelphia Union4652.4100%<1%12%6%<1%
7.2Orlando City SC4146.697%<1%4%2%<1%
9.2FC Cincinnati3643.063%<1%2%1%<1%
9.9Columbus Crew3541.246%<1%2%1%<1%
10.5New York Red Bulls3640.529%<1%<1%<1%<1%
10.6New York City FC3440.630%<1%1%<1%<1%
10.8Toronto FC3640.524%<1%<1%<1%<1%
12.2D.C. United3338.110%<1%<1%<1%<1%
13.4Atlanta United FC3034.81%<1%<1%<1%<1%
15.0CF Montréal2528.4<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

Western Conference — Vancouver Whitecaps FC 30% to reach MLS Cup

SeedTeamPtsxPtsPlayoffs1 seedConfCupShield
1.2Vancouver Whitecaps FC5562.2100%84%30%16%<1%
2.6FC Dallas5158.1100%10%15%7%<1%
2.9St. Louis City SC5157.1100%6%13%6%<1%
4.4San Jose Earthquakes4853.5100%<1%7%3%<1%
4.9Houston Dynamo FC4752.5100%<1%8%3%<1%
5.5Los Angeles FC4651.1100%<1%14%6%<1%
7.1Seattle Sounders FC4247.497%<1%7%2%<1%
8.9Colorado Rapids3943.670%<1%1%<1%<1%
9.2LA Galaxy4043.764%<1%1%<1%<1%
10.2Real Salt Lake3641.437%<1%1%<1%<1%
11.6Minnesota United FC3439.711%<1%<1%<1%<1%
11.6San Diego FC3439.410%<1%<1%<1%<1%
11.7Portland Timbers3439.011%<1%<1%<1%<1%
13.3Austin FC3136.52%<1%<1%<1%<1%
15.0Sporting Kansas City2226.0<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

60 regular-season matches left, replayed 20,000 times with live in-sim Elo, then the full playoff bracket each time. Seed = expected conference finish; 1 seed = finishing top of the conference; Conf = reaching MLS Cup; Shield = best record in the league. MLS publishes no machine-readable fixture list, so the run-in is reconstructed from the league's format: 56 conference fixtures are exact, and the 4 cross-conference ones are known only as per-club home/away counts, so every replay draws its own pairing of them.

Glued club Elo (top-5 leagues + UEFA cross-play) with a squad-economics outcome model · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/soccer

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