Senate Forecast
Who controls the Senate after November?
50,000 simulated elections, seeding each race with its polling average, correlated polling error, and a prediction-market prior. Where the race stands today — current polling averages blended with prediction-market odds. A work in progress from Policy y Peaches.
D keeps/takes control
65%
R control
35%
Mean D seats
51.5
Median D seats
52
Chamber control probability
Democrats 65%Republicans 35%
Competitive seats that determine Senate control
The 35 races, ranked from most to least Democratic. With 34 Democratic seats not up, Democrats need the 17 most Democratic for 51.
Safe D
>99%
6
Likely D
80–99%
7
Lean D
60–80%
3
Toss-up
40–60%
4
Lean R
20–40%
3
Likely R
1–20%
9
Safe R
<1%
3
Each box is a seat, shaded by the party our simulation favors and how strongly; green marks a seat where an independent challenger is favored. A heavy outline marks a seat the model expects to change hands. Hover a box for its probability.
National environment
Net presidential approval
-25.5
Generic ballot (D−R)
+9.1
2024 House baseline
-2.8
Applied swing
D+11.3
Today’s climate (Republican president) implies a national D+8.5 margin. Measured against the 2024 House result, that is a uniform D+11.3 swing applied to every state’s fundamentals prior. It moves thinly-polled races the most.
Seat distribution across 50,000 simulations
Baseline: 34 safe D seats + 31 safe R seats; 35 competitive races simulated. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Independents challenging in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota are tallied separately (0.29 expected seats) and are not counted toward Democratic control.
Our simulation vs prediction markets — P(Democratic control)
Our model
65%
Polymarket ↗
100%
Market odds also feed the per-race blend (weight 25% market / 75% polls).
Georgia
Jon Ossoff (D) v. Mike Collins (R)
- Polling margin
- D +8.6
- P(D), polls
- 92%
- P(D), blended
- 92%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- —
Michigan
Abdul El-Sayed (D) v. Mike Rogers (R) · open
- Polling margin
- D +4.8
- P(D), polls
- 76%
- P(D), blended
- 57%
- Polymarket
- 1%
- Kalshi
- —
North Carolina
Roy Cooper (D) v. Michael Whatley (R) · open
- Polling margin
- D +10.3
- P(D), polls
- 95%
- P(D), blended
- 95%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- —
Maine
Troy Jackson (D) v. Susan Collins (R)
- Polling margin
- D +4.7
- P(D), polls
- 76%
- P(D), blended
- 76%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- —
New Hampshire
Chris Pappas (D) v. John E. Sununu (R) · open
- Polling margin
- D +8.2
- P(D), polls
- 91%
- P(D), blended
- 91%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- —
Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D) v. Jon Husted (R)
- Polling margin
- D +2.5
- P(D), polls
- 60%
- P(D), blended
- 60%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- —
Texas
James Talarico (D) v. Ken Paxton (R) · open
- Polling margin
- D +2.9
- P(D), polls
- 63%
- P(D), blended
- 63%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- —
Iowa
Josh Turek (D) v. Ashley Hinson (R) · open
- Polling margin
- D +0.2
- P(D), polls
- 42%
- P(D), blended
- 42%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- —
Alaska
Mary Peltola (D) v. Dan Sullivan (R)
Alabama
Everett Wess (D) v. Barry Moore (R) · open
- Polling margin
- R +15.6
- P(D), polls
- 1%
- P(D), blended
- 1%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 3%
- Ratings
- Solid R · Safe R · Solid R
Arkansas
Hallie Shoffner (D) v. Tom Cotton (R)
- Polling margin
- R +14.6
- P(D), polls
- 1%
- P(D), blended
- 1%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 5%
- Ratings
- Solid R · Safe R · Solid R
Colorado
John Hickenlooper (D) v. Mark Baisley (R)
No public polls in window; consensus safe pick (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, DDHQ, Kalshi, Polymarket agree)
- Polling margin
- —
- P(D), polls
- —
- P(D), blended
- 99%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 99%
- Ratings
- Solid D · Safe D · Solid D
Delaware
Chris Coons (D) v. Michael Katz (R)
No public polls in window; consensus safe pick (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, DDHQ, Kalshi, Polymarket agree)
- Polling margin
- —
- P(D), polls
- —
- P(D), blended
- 99%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 99%
- Ratings
- Solid D · Safe D · Solid D
Florida
Angie Nixon (D) v. Ashley Moody (R)
- Polling margin
- R +4.6
- P(D), polls
- 13%
- P(D), blended
- 13%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 12%
- Ratings
- Likely R · Likely R · Likely R
Idaho
Todd Achilles (I) v. Jim Risch (R)
In-window polls are partisan-sponsored only; P(D) blended 50/50 with the consensus
- Polling margin
- R +16.7
- P(D), polls
- 1%
- P(D), blended
- 2%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 5%
- Ratings
- Solid R · Safe R · Solid R
Illinois
Juliana Stratton (D) v. Don Tracy (R) · open
- Polling margin
- D +17.4
- P(D), polls
- 99%
- P(D), blended
- 99%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 98%
- Ratings
- Solid D · Safe D · Solid D
Kansas
Adam Hamilton (D) v. Roger Marshall (R)
- Polling margin
- D +2.8
- P(D), polls
- 63%
- P(D), blended
- 58%
- Polymarket
- 43%
- Kalshi
- —
Kentucky
Charles Booker (D) v. Andy Barr (R) · open
No public polls in window; consensus safe pick (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, DDHQ, Kalshi, Polymarket agree)
- Polling margin
- —
- P(D), polls
- —
- P(D), blended
- 1%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 5%
- Ratings
- Solid R · Safe R · Solid R
Louisiana
Jamie Davis (D) v. Julia Letlow (R) · open
In-window polls are partisan-sponsored only; P(D) blended 50/50 with the consensus
- Polling margin
- R +4.3
- P(D), polls
- 14%
- P(D), blended
- 13%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 11%
- Ratings
- Solid R · Likely R · Likely R
Massachusetts
Ed Markey (D) v. John Deaton (R)
- Polling margin
- D +28.0
- P(D), polls
- 100%
- P(D), blended
- 100%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- —
Minnesota
Peggy Flanagan (D) v. Michele Tafoya (R) · open
- Polling margin
- D +6.4
- P(D), polls
- 84%
- P(D), blended
- 84%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- —
Mississippi
Scott Colom (D) v. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
In-window polls are partisan-sponsored only; P(D) blended 50/50 with the consensus
- Polling margin
- R +6.0
- P(D), polls
- 9%
- P(D), blended
- 21%
- Polymarket
- 98%
- Kalshi
- 12%
- Ratings
- Likely R · Likely R · Likely R
Montana
Seth Bodnar (I) v. Kurt Alme (R) · Alani Bankhead (D) · open
- Polling margin
- R +9.0
- P(D), polls
- 4%
- P(D), blended
- 4%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- —
Nebraska
Dan Osborn (I) v. Pete Ricketts (R)
- Polling margin
- R +2.8
- P(D), polls
- 21%
- P(D), blended
- 21%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- —
New Jersey
Cory Booker (D) v. Justin Murphy (R)
No public polls in window; consensus safe pick (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, DDHQ, Kalshi, Polymarket agree)
- Polling margin
- —
- P(D), polls
- —
- P(D), blended
- 99%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 98%
- Ratings
- Solid D · Safe D · Solid D
New Mexico
Ben Ray Luján (D) v. Larry Marker (R)
- Polling margin
- D +18.2
- P(D), polls
- 99%
- P(D), blended
- 99%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 99%
- Ratings
- Solid D · Safe D · Solid D
Oklahoma
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) v. Kevin Hern (R) · open
No public polls in window; consensus safe pick (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, DDHQ, Kalshi, Polymarket agree)
- Polling margin
- —
- P(D), polls
- —
- P(D), blended
- 1%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 3%
- Ratings
- Solid R · Safe R · Solid R
Oregon
Jeff Merkley (D) v. David Brock Smith (R)
No public polls in window; consensus safe pick (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, DDHQ, Kalshi, Polymarket agree)
- Polling margin
- —
- P(D), polls
- —
- P(D), blended
- 99%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 99%
- Ratings
- Solid D · Safe D · Solid D
Rhode Island
Jack Reed (D) v. Raymond McKay (R)
- Polling margin
- D +28.2
- P(D), polls
- 100%
- P(D), blended
- 100%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 100%
- Ratings
- Solid D · Safe D · Solid D
South Carolina
Annie Andrews (D) v. Darline Graham (R)
- Polling margin
- R +1.9
- P(D), polls
- 26%
- P(D), blended
- 26%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 28%
- Ratings
- Lean R · Lean R · Tilt R
South Dakota
Brian Bengs (I) v. Mike Rounds (R)
- Polling margin
- R +11.7
- P(D), polls
- 2%
- P(D), blended
- 2%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 6%
- Ratings
- Solid R · Safe R · Solid R
Tennessee
Marquita Bradshaw (D) v. Bill Hagerty (R)
No public polls in window; consensus safe pick (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, DDHQ, Kalshi, Polymarket agree)
- Polling margin
- —
- P(D), polls
- —
- P(D), blended
- 1%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 4%
- Ratings
- Solid R · Safe R · Solid R
Virginia
Mark Warner (D) v. Bert Mizusawa (R)
No public polls in window; consensus safe pick (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, DDHQ, Kalshi, Polymarket agree)
- Polling margin
- —
- P(D), polls
- —
- P(D), blended
- 99%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 99%
- Ratings
- Solid D · Safe D · Solid D
West Virginia
Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) v. Shelley Moore Capito (R)
No public polls in window; consensus safe pick (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, DDHQ, Kalshi, Polymarket agree)
- Polling margin
- —
- P(D), polls
- —
- P(D), blended
- 1%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 1%
- Ratings
- Solid R · Safe R · Solid R
Wyoming
James W. Byrd (D) v. Harriet Hageman (R) · open
No public polls in window; consensus safe pick (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, DDHQ, Kalshi, Polymarket agree)
- Polling margin
- —
- P(D), polls
- —
- P(D), blended
- 1%
- Polymarket
- —
- Kalshi
- 2%
- Ratings
- Solid R · Safe R · Solid R
* For races marked (I) — no Democrat on the ballot — the margin and probabilities describe the independent challenger, not a Democrat. Hover a matchup for format notes (ranked choice, specials, open seats). † Market price from the Nov 1–2 research snapshot where the live feed has no market yet. Ratings are Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections for the 22 researched races; hover for the full text.
How the simulation works
- Each race’s polling average margin is converted to a win probability using a fat-tailed Student-t error model: a national error (σ = 2.899) shared by every race plus an independent per-race error (σ = 5.144), sized to historical Senate polling misses. A shared tail shock allows unusually large misses to move several races together.
- The national midterm climate — the president’s approval and the generic congressional ballot — is folded into each race’s fundamentals prior as a uniform D+11.3 swing versus the 2024 House result. It mainly lifts thinly-polled seats; heavily polled races already price the climate in.
- Prediction-market odds are blended in at 25% weight — markets aggregate information polls miss, and the weight is a tunable model parameter.
- We then simulate 50,000 elections. The shared national error is what makes sweeps (all close races breaking one way) more likely than independent coin flips would suggest.
- This shows where the race stands today, given current polling and market prices. A work in progress from the team at Policy y Peaches — learn more here.
A work in progress from the team at Policy y Peaches. Learn more here.
Last updated: Nov 6, 2026, 5:15 PM