Pollster Grades
Who's polling these races — and how good are they?
Every poll behind the 2026 Senate battlegrounds, with each pollster’s grade. Grades blend Silver Bulletin’s pollster-error ratings (the national grade) with our own historical actual-minus-poll track record. Lower error and smaller house effects earn higher grades.
Polls by state
Georgia · 14 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 16, 26 | 645lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 14, 26 | 1,019lv | 51 | 42 | D+9.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 10, 26 – Sep 12, 26 | 1,091lv | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Aug 16, 26 – Aug 17, 26 | 800lv | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | unrated | Jul 13, 26 – Jul 16, 26 | 1,060lv | 52 | 43 | D+9.0 |
| Wick | unrated | Jun 27, 26 – Jun 30, 26 | 1,175lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jun 23, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 1,002rv | 56 | 43 | D+13.0 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Apr 3, 26 – Apr 9, 26 | 407lv | 51 | 44 | D+7.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Feb 28, 26 – Mar 2, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 9, 25 – Sep 12, 25 | 624rv | 38 | 38 | Even |
| TIPP Insights | B | Jul 28, 25 – Aug 1, 25 | 2,956rv | 45 | 44 | D+1.0 |
| Cygnal (R) | unrated | May 15, 25 – May 17, 25 | 800lv | 46 | 43 | D+3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Apr 24, 25 – Apr 27, 25 | 1,426lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| WPA Intelligence (R) | unrated | Jan 14, 25 – Jan 15, 25 | 500lv | 44 | 34 | D+10.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Targoz Market Research: leans D 4.9 (n=2)SurveyUSA: leans D 4.4 (n=4)RMG Research: leans D 3.3 (n=2)AtlasIntel: leans D 2.7 (n=3)Siena/NYT: leans D 1.9 (n=2)Data for Progress: leans D 1.4 (n=4)Morning Consult: leans D 1.3 (n=2)Emerson: leans D 0.9 (n=5)U. Georgia SPIA: leans D 0.8 (n=2)Trafalgar Group: leans D 0.8 (n=8)Swayable: leans D 0.3 (n=2)Landmark Communications: leans D 0.2 (n=5)East Carolina University: leans D 0.1 (n=2)InsiderAdvantage: leans R 0.1 (n=7)Remington: leans R 3.6 (n=2)Moore Information: leans R 5.5 (n=2)
Michigan · 31 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 16, 26 – Sep 17, 26 | 1,200lv | — | 45 | — |
| Emerson College | B+ | Sep 12, 26 – Sep 14, 26 | 1,000lv | — | 46 | — |
| The Washington Post/SSPG | unrated | Sep 10, 26 – Sep 14, 26 | 803lv | — | 45 | — |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 7, 26 – Sep 9, 26 | 1,079lv | — | 45 | — |
| SSRS | unrated | Aug 31, 26 – Sep 6, 26 | 843lv | — | 44 | — |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Aug 31, 26 – Sep 3, 26 | 600lv | — | 46 | — |
| Abacus Data | unrated | Aug 26, 26 – Aug 28, 26 | 332lv | — | 45 | — |
| EPIC-MRA | unrated | Aug 22, 26 – Aug 28, 26 | 600lv | — | 45 | — |
| Michigan State University/YouGov | unrated | Aug 10, 26 – Aug 20, 26 | 779lv | — | 45 | — |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | unrated | Aug 11, 26 – Aug 17, 26 | 800lv | — | 39 | — |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | unrated | Aug 9, 26 – Aug 11, 26 | 877lv | — | 47 | — |
| TIPP Insights (R) | unrated | Aug 6, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 1,215lv | — | 42 | — |
| GBAO (D) | unrated | Aug 6, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 800lv | — | 44 | — |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Aug 6, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 1,006rv | — | 51 | — |
| EPIC-MRA | unrated | Jul 24, 26 – Jul 31, 26 | 600lv | — | 46 | — |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | unrated | Jul 28, 26 – Jul 30, 26 | 640lv | — | 42 | — |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | unrated | Jul 28, 26 – Jul 29, 26 | 672lv | — | 45 | — |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Jul 22, 26 – Jul 24, 26 | 600lv | — | 49 | — |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Jun 29, 26 – Jun 30, 26 | 947lv | — | 44 | — |
| Data for Progress (D) | B | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 22, 26 | 709lv | — | 46 | — |
| Zenith Research (D) | unrated | Jun 11, 26 – Jun 14, 26 | 602lv | — | 42 | — |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | unrated | Jun 11, 26 – Jun 13, 26 | 827lv | — | 42 | — |
| Tulchin Research (D) | unrated | Jun 2, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 500lv | — | 41 | — |
| TIPP Insights (R) | unrated | May 20, 26 – May 23, 26 | 1,163lv | — | 42 | — |
| Mitchell Research | unrated | May 1, 26 – May 7, 26 | 607lv | — | 42 | — |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Apr 28, 26 – May 1, 26 | 600lv | — | 45 | — |
| Emerson College | B+ | Jan 24, 26 – Jan 25, 26 | 1,000lv | — | 43 | — |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Jan 2, 26 – Jan 6, 26 | 600lv | — | 43 | — |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | unrated | Nov 18, 25 – Nov 21, 25 | 616lv | — | 41 | — |
| Rosetta Stone Communications (R) | unrated | Oct 23, 25 – Oct 25, 25 | 637lv | — | 45 | — |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | May 5, 25 – May 8, 25 | 600rv | — | 47 | — |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Swayable: leans D 10.3 (n=2)Research Co.: leans D 9.5 (n=3)CNN/SSRS: leans D 8.5 (n=2)Gravis Marketing (2020 and earlier): leans D 7.9 (n=2)PPP: leans D 7.8 (n=2)Glengariff Group Inc.: leans D 7.2 (n=3)Morning Consult: leans D 5.7 (n=4)RMG Research: leans D 5.5 (n=2)Ipsos: leans D 4.8 (n=4)Beacon/Shaw: leans D 4.5 (n=2)Siena/NYT: leans D 4.0 (n=2)EPIC/MRA: leans D 3.2 (n=4)Emerson: leans D 3.1 (n=4)Patriot Polling: leans D 1.9 (n=2)Mitchell: leans D 1.5 (n=8)AtlasIntel: leans D 1.0 (n=5)Change Research: leans D 0.7 (n=3)InsiderAdvantage: leans D 0.3 (n=2)Tarrance: leans R 0.7 (n=3)Trafalgar Group: leans R 0.8 (n=5)
North Carolina · 32 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 16, 26 – Sep 17, 26 | 1,200lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Sep 13, 26 – Sep 15, 26 | 608lv | 49 | 34 | D+15.0 |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 1,084lv | 48 | 42 | D+6.0 |
| East Carolina University | unrated | Aug 31, 26 – Sep 3, 26 | 675lv | 46 | 39 | D+7.0 |
| Elon University/YouGov | unrated | Aug 21, 26 – Aug 31, 26 | 565lv | 49 | 38 | D+11.0 |
| High Point University/YouGov | unrated | Aug 3, 26 – Aug 12, 26 | 660lv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Aug 9, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 600lv | 52 | 39 | D+13.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Aug 3, 26 – Aug 6, 26 | 915lv | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Jul 29, 26 – Aug 1, 26 | 967rv | 50 | 41 | D+9.0 |
| Elon University/YouGov | unrated | Jul 23, 26 – Jul 31, 26 | 466lv | 53 | 42 | D+11.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jul 23, 26 – Jul 27, 26 | 1,005rv | 53 | 44 | D+9.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Jul 10, 26 – Jul 11, 26 | 759lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 601lv | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 |
| Catawba College/YouGov | unrated | Jun 1, 26 – Jun 10, 26 | 905lv | 48 | 34 | D+14.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | May 10, 26 – May 11, 26 | 600lv | 50 | 39 | D+11.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | May 4, 26 – May 8, 26 | 957lv | 49 | 42 | D+7.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics (R) | unrated | Apr 21, 26 – Apr 24, 26 | 830rv | 50 | 41 | D+9.0 |
| High Point University/YouGov | unrated | Mar 26, 26 – Apr 6, 26 | 703lv | 50 | 42 | D+8.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Mar 31, 26 – Apr 1, 26 | 987lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Mar 22, 26 – Mar 23, 26 | 600lv | 49 | 41 | D+8.0 |
| Catawba College/YouGov | unrated | Mar 9, 26 – Mar 18, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 34 | D+14.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Mar 13, 26 – Mar 14, 26 | 556rv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Nexus Strategies/ Strategic Partners Solutions | unrated | Mar 8, 26 – Mar 9, 26 | 800rv | 50 | 32 | D+18.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Jan 31, 26 – Feb 4, 26 | 1,069rv | 50 | 40 | D+10.0 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | unrated | Jan 12, 26 – Jan 15, 26 | 1,512rv | 48 | 24 | D+24.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Jan 5, 26 – Jan 7, 26 | 1,105lv | 47 | 42 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Nov 9, 25 – Nov 10, 25 | 600lv | 47 | 39 | D+8.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 25 – Sep 15, 25 | 600rv | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Sep 2, 25 – Sep 8, 25 | 855lv | 48 | 41 | D+7.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Aug 11, 25 – Aug 12, 25 | 600rv | 47 | 39 | D+8.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Jul 28, 25 – Jul 30, 25 | 1,000rv | 47 | 41 | D+6.0 |
| Victory Insights (R) | unrated | Jul 28, 25 – Jul 30, 25 | 600lv | 43 | 40 | D+3.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Marist: leans D 7.5 (n=2)Morning Consult: leans D 7.2 (n=2)Change Research: leans D 6.8 (n=2)Civiqs: leans D 5.5 (n=2)Siena/NYT: leans D 5.3 (n=2)Swayable: leans D 4.7 (n=2)Meredith College: leans D 4.4 (n=2)Ipsos: leans D 3.5 (n=4)Rasmussen: leans D 3.3 (n=2)Data for Progress: leans D 3.2 (n=3)Emerson: leans D 1.8 (n=3)East Carolina University: leans D 1.6 (n=3)Trafalgar Group: leans R 1.4 (n=3)
Maine · 11 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 15, 26 | 621lv | 47 | 48 | R+1.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 1,033lv | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 2, 26 – Sep 8, 26 | 1,335lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| SSRS | unrated | Aug 31, 26 – Sep 6, 26 | 880lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Abacus Data | unrated | Aug 26, 26 – Aug 28, 26 | 327lv | 52 | 43 | D+9.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Aug 6, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 1,000rv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| Hart Research (D) | unrated | Jul 27, 26 – Aug 1, 26 | 802lv | 49 | 45 | D+4.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Jul 15, 26 – Jul 20, 26 | 1,178lv | 49 | 46 | D+3.0 |
| Z to A Research (D) | unrated | Jul 7, 26 – Jul 8, 26 | 988lv | 47 | 48 | R+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Jul 7, 26 – Jul 7, 26 | 785lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls (D) | unrated | Jul 4, 26 – Jul 6, 26 | 405lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
New Hampshire · 21 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 16, 26 – Sep 17, 26 | 1,200lv | 48 | — | — |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 9, 26 – Sep 11, 26 | 958lv | 46 | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 1,000lv | 45 | — | — |
| Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates (R) | unrated | Aug 27, 26 – Aug 30, 26 | 600lv | 36 | — | — |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Aug 20, 26 – Aug 24, 26 | 1,878lv | 43 | — | — |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Aug 17, 26 – Aug 18, 26 | 1,411lv | 48 | — | — |
| Peak Insights (R) | unrated | Jun 24, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 500lv | 43 | — | — |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Jun 24, 26 – Jun 25, 26 | 1,614rv | 47 | — | — |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Jun 18, 26 – Jun 23, 26 | 2,232lv | 47 | — | — |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Apr 17, 26 – Apr 21, 26 | 1,295lv | 49 | — | — |
| Emerson College | B+ | Mar 21, 26 – Mar 23, 26 | 1,000lv | 45 | — | — |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Mar 16, 26 – Mar 18, 26 | 1,491rv | 46 | — | — |
| yes. every kid. | unrated | Jan 28, 26 – Jan 29, 26 | 563lv | 45 | — | — |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Jan 15, 26 – Jan 19, 26 | 2,053lv | 50 | — | — |
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | unrated | Dec 26, 25 – Dec 28, 25 | 603rv | 42 | — | — |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy (R) | unrated | Dec 9, 25 – Dec 11, 25 | 600lv | 47 | — | — |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Nov 18, 25 – Nov 19, 25 | 2,212rv | 44 | — | — |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Oct 9, 25 – Oct 13, 25 | 1,034lv | 45 | — | — |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Sep 17, 25 – Sep 23, 25 | 1,235lv | 49 | — | — |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 10, 25 – Sep 12, 25 | 904lv | 46 | — | — |
| 1892 Polling (R) | unrated | Sep 2, 25 – Sep 4, 25 | 500lv | 45 | — | — |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
U. Massachusetts - Lowell: leans D 2.1 (n=2)Data for Progress: leans R 4.6 (n=2)Emerson: leans R 4.8 (n=2)St. Anselm: leans R 5.4 (n=2)U. New Hampshire: leans R 5.9 (n=2)InsiderAdvantage: leans R 7.9 (n=2)
Ohio · 22 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 16, 26 | 1,085lv | 45 | 42 | D+3.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Sep 1, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 9, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 42 | D+5.0 |
| Abacus Data | unrated | Aug 26, 26 – Aug 28, 26 | 306lv | 52 | 46 | D+6.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | unrated | Aug 11, 26 – Aug 13, 26 | 800lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Aug 6, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 1,008rv | 53 | 45 | D+8.0 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | unrated | Jul 29, 26 – Aug 4, 26 | 600lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 28, 26 | 601lv | 47 | 50 | R+3.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | unrated | Jun 14, 26 – Jun 16, 26 | 800lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | unrated | Jun 2, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 600lv | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | May 28, 26 – Jun 1, 26 | 1,015rv | 53 | 45 | D+8.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Apr 7, 26 – Apr 14, 26 | 1,000rv | 47 | 50 | R+3.0 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Apr 3, 26 – Apr 9, 26 | 413lv | 45 | 51 | R+6.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Mar 13, 26 – Mar 14, 26 | 784lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| OnMessage Public Strategies (R) | unrated | Mar 3, 26 – Mar 8, 26 | 600lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| EMC Research (D) | unrated | Feb 10, 26 – Feb 22, 26 | 1,343lv | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Dec 6, 25 – Dec 8, 25 | 850rv | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Oct 2, 25 – Oct 14, 25 | 800rv | 49 | 48 | D+1.0 |
| Hart Research (D) | unrated | Sep 19, 25 – Sep 22, 25 | 800lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Aug 18, 25 – Aug 19, 25 | 1,000rv | 44 | 50 | R+6.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Apr 18, 25 – Apr 24, 25 | 800rv | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Feb 14, 25 – Feb 21, 25 | 800rv | 41 | 47 | R+6.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Baldwin Wallace University: leans D 11.5 (n=2)Research Co.: leans D 2.6 (n=2)Morning Consult: leans D 2.6 (n=2)Cygnal: leans D 1.9 (n=10)Trafalgar Group: leans D 1.0 (n=3)ActiVote: leans D 0.7 (n=2)Emerson: leans R 1.4 (n=3)
Texas · 36 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 15, 26 – Sep 17, 26 | 1,079lv | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Sep 12, 26 – Sep 14, 26 | 1,000lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | unrated | Sep 12, 26 – Sep 13, 26 | 649lv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 11, 26 | 614lv | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 |
| Mason-Dixon | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 625lv | 46 | 43 | D+3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 9, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| Univision/YouGov | unrated | Aug 27, 26 – Sep 4, 26 | 1,000rv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | unrated | Aug 30, 26 – Sep 1, 26 | 895lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| Overton Insights (R) | unrated | Aug 24, 26 – Aug 26, 26 | 1,167lv | 50 | 50 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | unrated | Aug 21, 26 – Aug 24, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 42 | D+6.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | unrated | Aug 5, 26 – Aug 13, 26 | 1,200rv | 42 | 39 | D+3.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Aug 9, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 1,000lv | 46 | 47 | R+1.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | unrated | Jul 30, 26 – Jul 31, 26 | 800lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| YouGov Blue (D) | unrated | Jul 15, 26 – Jul 31, 26 | 1,001rv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University | unrated | Jul 27, 26 – Jul 30, 26 | 619lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| Texas Southern University | unrated | Jul 27, 26 – Jul 30, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jul 23, 26 – Jul 27, 26 | 1,005rv | 51 | 48 | D+3.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | unrated | Jul 15, 26 – Jul 17, 26 | 1,048lv | 45 | 40 | D+5.0 |
| A2 Insights | unrated | Jun 23, 26 – Jun 28, 26 | 618lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 19, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 656lv | 47 | 47 | Even |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | unrated | Jun 21, 26 – Jun 21, 26 | 800lv | 47 | 49 | R+2.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | unrated | Jun 5, 26 – Jun 12, 26 | 1,200rv | 42 | 43 | R+1.0 |
| Quantus Insights | unrated | Jun 3, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 800lv | 43 | 45 | R+2.0 |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University | unrated | Jun 1, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 807lv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | unrated | May 27, 26 – May 28, 26 | 1,670lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | May 22, 26 – May 23, 26 | 643rv | 45 | 38 | D+7.0 |
| Texas Southern University | unrated | Apr 22, 26 – May 6, 26 | 1,223lv | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | unrated | Apr 17, 26 – Apr 20, 26 | 1,018lv | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | unrated | Apr 10, 26 – Apr 20, 26 | 1,200rv | 42 | 34 | D+8.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | unrated | Mar 12, 26 – Mar 17, 26 | 900lv | 44 | 43 | D+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Mar 4, 26 – Mar 5, 26 | 576rv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| University of Houston/YouGov | unrated | Jan 20, 26 – Jan 31, 26 | 1,502lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Jan 10, 26 – Jan 12, 26 | 1,165rv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R) | unrated | Nov 12, 25 – Nov 17, 25 | 1,000lv | 44 | 44 | Even |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University | unrated | Sep 19, 25 – Oct 1, 25 | 1,650rv | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
| UT Tyler | unrated | Sep 17, 25 – Sep 24, 25 | 1,032rv | 37 | 38 | R+1.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Data for Progress: leans D 7.0 (n=3)Morning Consult: leans D 5.8 (n=4)Emerson: leans D 4.0 (n=3)GBAO: leans D 3.5 (n=2)ActiVote: leans D 3.3 (n=2)Cygnal: leans D 3.0 (n=2)University of Texas at Tyler: leans D 2.4 (n=3)Siena/NYT: leans D 2.1 (n=2)Swayable: leans D 0.7 (n=2)Quinnipiac: leans D 0.6 (n=2)YouGov: leans D 0.5 (n=2)
Iowa · 18 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 16, 26 – Sep 18, 26 | 1,089lv | 42 | 44 | R+2.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 16, 26 | 831lv | 42 | 46 | R+4.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 1,031lv | 45 | 40 | D+5.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 3, 26 – Sep 8, 26 | 2,041lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Aug 31, 26 – Sep 1, 26 | 750lv | 45 | 50 | R+5.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | unrated | Aug 27, 26 – Aug 31, 26 | 800lv | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | unrated | Aug 27, 26 – Aug 29, 26 | 600lv | 48 | 50 | R+2.0 |
| Abacus Data | unrated | Aug 26, 26 – Aug 28, 26 | 323lv | 54 | 45 | D+9.0 |
| Suffolk University | A- | Aug 20, 26 – Aug 23, 26 | 500lv | 41 | 45 | R+4.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Aug 2, 26 – Aug 4, 26 | 712lv | 45 | 48 | R+3.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jun 23, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 1,003rv | 50 | 46 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 600lv | 46 | 48 | R+2.0 |
| Cygnal (R) | unrated | Jun 16, 26 – Jun 19, 26 | 600lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | unrated | Jun 8, 26 – Jun 11, 26 | 1,000lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Jun 3, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 557rv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Apr 3, 26 – Apr 9, 26 | 377lv | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| GQR (D) | unrated | Mar 10, 26 – Mar 16, 26 | 1,200lv | 43 | 47 | R+4.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Jan 8, 26 – Jan 11, 26 | 1,108lv | 41 | 44 | R+3.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Change Research: leans D 8.3 (n=2)Civiqs: leans D 6.8 (n=2)InsiderAdvantage: leans D 6.0 (n=2)Emerson: leans D 6.0 (n=2)Selzer: leans D 1.3 (n=2)
Alaska · 1 poll
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | unrated | Mar 19, 26 – Mar 22, 26 | 1,283lv | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
National pollster grades
The rated pollster pool, best to worst. “SB error” is the Silver Bulletin absolute-error estimate (points; lower is better). “Our track record” is the mean actual-minus-poll error across the Senate races in our 2018–2024 backtest, where we have at least five of a pollster’s polls.
| Pollster | Grade | SB error | Our track record |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Lowell | A | 2.5 | — |
| Marist College | A- | 2.8 | — |
| Pew Research Center | A- | 2.8 | — |
| Marquette Law School | A- | 2.9 | — |
| New York Times/Siena College | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Siena College | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Suffolk University | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Gallup | A- | 3.0 | — |
| ABC News/Washington Post | B+ | 3.3 | — |
| YouGov | B+ | 3.3 | leans D 3.3 (n=22) |
| CNN | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Fox News | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Quinnipiac University | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| CBS News/YouGov | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Monmouth University | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| NBC News/Marist | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Emerson College | B+ | 3.8 | — |
| SurveyUSA | B | 4.0 | leans D 2.2 (n=14) |
| HarrisX | B | 4.0 | leans D 0.3 (n=55) |
| TIPP Insights | B | 4.0 | — |
| Morning Consult | B | 4.5 | leans D 4.8 (n=30) |
| PPP | B | 4.5 | leans D 4.9 (n=13) |
| Data for Progress | B | 4.5 | leans D 1.9 (n=38) |
| Rasmussen Reports | B- | 4.8 | — |
| InsiderAdvantage | B- | 5.0 | leans R 1.6 (n=27) |
| Trafalgar Group | C+ | 5.2 | leans R 1.9 (n=43) |
| Remington Research | C+ | 5.5 | — |
How to read the grades
- National grade comes from Silver Bulletin’s pollster-error ratings, mapped to an A–C scale. Unrated feeds (aggregators, one-off shops) show as unrated and fall back to a B prior in the model.
- In-state track record is each pollster’s mean error in that specific state from our backtest. State samples are thin, so treat it as a directional signal, not a precise grade — it appears under a state once a pollster has a multi-cycle history there.
- A negative error means the pollster overstated Democrats(Republicans beat the poll); positive means it overstated Republicans. This is the same actual-minus-poll convention used in the forecast calibration.
A work in progress from the team at Policy y Peaches. Learn more here.
Last updated: Sep 20, 2026, 12:01 AM