Pollster Grades
Who's polling these races — and how good are they?
Every poll behind the 2026 Senate battlegrounds, with each pollster’s grade. Grades blend Silver Bulletin’s pollster-error ratings (the national grade) with our own historical actual-minus-poll track record. Lower error and smaller house effects earn higher grades.
Polls by state
Georgia · 10 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | unrated | Jul 13, 26 – Jul 16, 26 | 1,060lv | 52 | 43 | D+9.0 |
| Wick | unrated | Jun 27, 26 – Jun 30, 26 | 1,175lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jun 23, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 1,002rv | 56 | 43 | D+13.0 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Apr 3, 26 – Apr 9, 26 | 407lv | 51 | 44 | D+7.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Feb 28, 26 – Mar 2, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 9, 25 – Sep 12, 25 | 624rv | 38 | 38 | Even |
| TIPP Insights | B | Jul 28, 25 – Aug 1, 25 | 2,956rv | 45 | 44 | D+1.0 |
| Cygnal (R) | unrated | May 15, 25 – May 17, 25 | 800lv | 46 | 43 | D+3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Apr 24, 25 – Apr 27, 25 | 1,426lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| WPA Intelligence (R) | unrated | Jan 14, 25 – Jan 15, 25 | 500lv | 44 | 34 | D+10.0 |
Michigan · 17 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA | unrated | Jul 24, 26 – Jul 31, 26 | 600lv | — | 46 | — |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | unrated | Jul 28, 26 – Jul 30, 26 | 640lv | — | 42 | — |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | unrated | Jul 28, 26 – Jul 29, 26 | 672lv | — | 45 | — |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Jul 22, 26 – Jul 24, 26 | 600lv | — | 49 | — |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Jun 29, 26 – Jun 30, 26 | 947lv | — | 44 | — |
| Data for Progress (D) | B | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 22, 26 | 709lv | — | 46 | — |
| Zenith Research (D) | unrated | Jun 11, 26 – Jun 14, 26 | 602lv | — | 42 | — |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | unrated | Jun 11, 26 – Jun 13, 26 | 827lv | — | 42 | — |
| Tulchin Research (D) | unrated | Jun 2, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 500lv | — | 41 | — |
| TIPP Insights (R) | unrated | May 20, 26 – May 23, 26 | 1,163lv | — | 42 | — |
| Mitchell Research | unrated | May 1, 26 – May 7, 26 | 607lv | — | 42 | — |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Apr 28, 26 – May 1, 26 | 600lv | — | 45 | — |
| Emerson College | B+ | Jan 24, 26 – Jan 25, 26 | 1,000lv | — | 43 | — |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Jan 2, 26 – Jan 6, 26 | 600lv | — | 43 | — |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | unrated | Nov 18, 25 – Nov 21, 25 | 616lv | — | 41 | — |
| Rosetta Stone Communications (R) | unrated | Oct 23, 25 – Oct 25, 25 | 637lv | — | 45 | — |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | May 5, 25 – May 8, 25 | 600rv | — | 47 | — |
North Carolina · 22 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jul 23, 26 – Jul 27, 26 | 1,005rv | 53 | 44 | D+9.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Jul 10, 26 – Jul 11, 26 | 759lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 601lv | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 |
| Catawba College/YouGov | unrated | Jun 1, 26 – Jun 10, 26 | 905lv | 48 | 34 | D+14.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | May 10, 26 – May 11, 26 | 600lv | 50 | 39 | D+11.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | May 4, 26 – May 8, 26 | 957lv | 49 | 42 | D+7.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics (R) | unrated | Apr 21, 26 – Apr 24, 26 | 830rv | 50 | 41 | D+9.0 |
| High Point University/YouGov | unrated | Mar 26, 26 – Apr 6, 26 | 703lv | 50 | 42 | D+8.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Mar 31, 26 – Apr 1, 26 | 987lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Mar 22, 26 – Mar 23, 26 | 600lv | 49 | 41 | D+8.0 |
| Catawba College/YouGov | unrated | Mar 9, 26 – Mar 18, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 34 | D+14.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Mar 13, 26 – Mar 14, 26 | 556rv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Nexus Strategies/ Strategic Partners Solutions | unrated | Mar 8, 26 – Mar 9, 26 | 800rv | 50 | 32 | D+18.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Jan 31, 26 – Feb 4, 26 | 1,069rv | 50 | 40 | D+10.0 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | unrated | Jan 12, 26 – Jan 15, 26 | 1,512rv | 48 | 24 | D+24.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Jan 5, 26 – Jan 7, 26 | 1,105lv | 47 | 42 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Nov 9, 25 – Nov 10, 25 | 600lv | 47 | 39 | D+8.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 25 – Sep 15, 25 | 600rv | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Sep 2, 25 – Sep 8, 25 | 855lv | 48 | 41 | D+7.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Aug 11, 25 – Aug 12, 25 | 600rv | 47 | 39 | D+8.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Jul 28, 25 – Jul 30, 25 | 1,000rv | 47 | 41 | D+6.0 |
| Victory Insights (R) | unrated | Jul 28, 25 – Jul 30, 25 | 600lv | 43 | 40 | D+3.0 |
Maine · 4 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Jul 15, 26 – Jul 20, 26 | 1,178lv | 49 | 46 | D+3.0 |
| Z to A Research (D) | unrated | Jul 7, 26 – Jul 8, 26 | 988lv | 47 | 48 | R+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Jul 7, 26 – Jul 7, 26 | 785lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | unrated | Jul 4, 26 – Jul 6, 26 | 405lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
New Hampshire · 13 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Jun 24, 26 – Jun 25, 26 | 1,614rv | 48 | 36 | D+12.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Jun 18, 26 – Jun 23, 26 | 2,232lv | 52 | 38 | D+14.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Apr 17, 26 – Apr 21, 26 | 1,295lv | 52 | 38 | D+14.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Mar 21, 26 – Mar 23, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 39 | D+9.0 |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Mar 16, 26 – Mar 18, 26 | 1,491rv | 47 | 38 | D+9.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Jan 15, 26 – Jan 19, 26 | 2,053lv | 52 | 42 | D+10.0 |
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | unrated | Dec 26, 25 – Dec 28, 25 | 603rv | 46 | 28 | D+18.0 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy (R) | unrated | Dec 9, 25 – Dec 11, 25 | 600lv | 49 | 38 | D+11.0 |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Nov 18, 25 – Nov 19, 25 | 2,212rv | 44 | 36 | D+8.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Oct 9, 25 – Oct 13, 25 | 1,034lv | 49 | 39 | D+10.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Sep 17, 25 – Sep 23, 25 | 1,235lv | 52 | 37 | D+15.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 10, 25 – Sep 12, 25 | 904lv | 50 | 40 | D+10.0 |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Aug 26, 25 – Aug 27, 25 | 1,776rv | 48 | 37 | D+11.0 |
Ohio · 15 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 28, 26 | 601lv | 47 | 50 | R+3.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | unrated | Jun 14, 26 – Jun 16, 26 | 800lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | unrated | Jun 2, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 600lv | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | May 28, 26 – Jun 1, 26 | 1,015rv | 53 | 45 | D+8.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Apr 7, 26 – Apr 14, 26 | 1,000rv | 47 | 50 | R+3.0 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Apr 3, 26 – Apr 9, 26 | 413lv | 45 | 51 | R+6.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Mar 13, 26 – Mar 14, 26 | 784lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| OnMessage Public Strategies (R) | unrated | Mar 3, 26 – Mar 8, 26 | 600lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| EMC Research (D) | unrated | Feb 10, 26 – Feb 22, 26 | 1,343lv | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Dec 6, 25 – Dec 8, 25 | 850rv | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Oct 2, 25 – Oct 14, 25 | 800rv | 49 | 48 | D+1.0 |
| Hart Research (D) | unrated | Sep 19, 25 – Sep 22, 25 | 800lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Aug 18, 25 – Aug 19, 25 | 1,000rv | 44 | 50 | R+6.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Apr 18, 25 – Apr 24, 25 | 800rv | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Feb 14, 25 – Feb 21, 25 | 800rv | 41 | 47 | R+6.0 |
Texas · 22 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | unrated | Jul 30, 26 – Jul 31, 26 | 800lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| Texas Southern University | unrated | Jul 27, 26 – Jul 30, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jul 23, 26 – Jul 27, 26 | 1,005rv | 51 | 48 | D+3.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | unrated | Jul 15, 26 – Jul 17, 26 | 1,048lv | 45 | 40 | D+5.0 |
| A2 Insights | unrated | Jun 23, 26 – Jun 28, 26 | 618lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 19, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 656lv | 47 | 47 | Even |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | unrated | Jun 21, 26 – Jun 21, 26 | 800lv | 47 | 49 | R+2.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | unrated | Jun 5, 26 – Jun 12, 26 | 1,200rv | 42 | 43 | R+1.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Jun 3, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 800lv | 43 | 45 | R+2.0 |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University | unrated | Jun 1, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 807lv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | unrated | May 27, 26 – May 28, 26 | 1,670lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | May 22, 26 – May 23, 26 | 643rv | 45 | 38 | D+7.0 |
| Texas Southern University | unrated | Apr 22, 26 – May 6, 26 | 1,223lv | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | unrated | Apr 17, 26 – Apr 20, 26 | 1,018lv | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | unrated | Apr 10, 26 – Apr 20, 26 | 1,200rv | 42 | 34 | D+8.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | unrated | Mar 12, 26 – Mar 17, 26 | 900lv | 44 | 43 | D+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Mar 4, 26 – Mar 5, 26 | 576rv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| University of Houston/YouGov | unrated | Jan 20, 26 – Jan 31, 26 | 1,502lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Jan 10, 26 – Jan 12, 26 | 1,165rv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R) | unrated | Nov 12, 25 – Nov 17, 25 | 1,000lv | 44 | 44 | Even |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University | unrated | Sep 19, 25 – Oct 1, 25 | 1,650rv | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
| UT Tyler | unrated | Sep 17, 25 – Sep 24, 25 | 1,032rv | 37 | 38 | R+1.0 |
Iowa · 8 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jun 23, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 1,003rv | 50 | 46 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 600lv | 46 | 48 | R+2.0 |
| Cygnal (R) | unrated | Jun 16, 26 – Jun 19, 26 | 600lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | unrated | Jun 8, 26 – Jun 11, 26 | 1,000lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Jun 3, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 557rv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Apr 3, 26 – Apr 9, 26 | 377lv | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| GQR (D) | unrated | Mar 10, 26 – Mar 16, 26 | 1,200lv | 43 | 47 | R+4.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Jan 8, 26 – Jan 11, 26 | 1,108lv | 41 | 44 | R+3.0 |
Alaska · 1 poll
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | unrated | Mar 19, 26 – Mar 22, 26 | 1,283lv | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
National pollster grades
The rated pollster pool, best to worst. “SB error” is the Silver Bulletin absolute-error estimate (points; lower is better). “Our track record” is the mean actual-minus-poll error across the Senate races in our 2018–2024 backtest, where we have at least five of a pollster’s polls.
| Pollster | Grade | SB error | Our track record |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Lowell | A | 2.5 | — |
| Marist College | A- | 2.8 | — |
| Pew Research Center | A- | 2.8 | — |
| Marquette Law School | A- | 2.9 | — |
| New York Times/Siena College | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Siena College | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Suffolk University | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Gallup | A- | 3.0 | — |
| ABC News/Washington Post | B+ | 3.3 | — |
| YouGov | B+ | 3.3 | — |
| CNN | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Fox News | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Quinnipiac University | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| CBS News/YouGov | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Monmouth University | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| NBC News/Marist | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Emerson College | B+ | 3.8 | — |
| SurveyUSA | B | 4.0 | — |
| HarrisX | B | 4.0 | — |
| TIPP Insights | B | 4.0 | — |
| Morning Consult | B | 4.5 | — |
| PPP | B | 4.5 | — |
| Data for Progress | B | 4.5 | — |
| Rasmussen Reports | B- | 4.8 | — |
| InsiderAdvantage | B- | 5.0 | — |
| Trafalgar Group | C+ | 5.2 | — |
| Remington Research | C+ | 5.5 | — |
How to read the grades
- National grade comes from Silver Bulletin’s pollster-error ratings, mapped to an A–C scale. Unrated feeds (aggregators, one-off shops) show as unrated and fall back to a B prior in the model.
- In-state track record is each pollster’s mean error in that specific state from our backtest. State samples are thin, so treat it as a directional signal, not a precise grade — it appears under a state once a pollster has a multi-cycle history there.
- A negative error means the pollster overstated Democrats(Republicans beat the poll); positive means it overstated Republicans. This is the same actual-minus-poll convention used in the forecast calibration.
A work in progress from the team at Policy y Peaches. Learn more here.
Last updated: Aug 4, 2026, 11:07 PM