Pollster Grades
Who's polling these races — and how good are they?
Every poll behind the 2026 Senate battlegrounds, with each pollster’s grade. Grades blend Silver Bulletin’s pollster-error ratings (the national grade) with our own historical actual-minus-poll track record. Lower error and smaller house effects earn higher grades.
Polls by state
Georgia · 24 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | unrated | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 2, 26 | 450lv | 52 | 42 | D+10.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 2, 26 | 2,500lv | 53 | 46 | D+7.0 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 16, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 508lv | 55 | 40 | D+15.0 |
| ActiVote | unrated | Oct 6, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 400lv | 54 | 46 | D+8.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 17, 26 | 755lv | 52 | 45 | D+7.0 |
| University of Georgia | unrated | Oct 7, 26 – Oct 15, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 40 | D+8.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Oct 7, 26 – Oct 9, 26 | 1,101lv | 51 | 43 | D+8.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 22, 26 – Sep 23, 26 | 1,200lv | 50 | 42 | D+8.0 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | unrated | Sep 21, 26 – Sep 23, 26 | 678lv | 52 | 41 | D+11.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 15, 26 – Sep 18, 26 | 3,301lv | 52 | 42 | D+10.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 16, 26 | 645lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 14, 26 | 1,019lv | 51 | 42 | D+9.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 10, 26 – Sep 12, 26 | 1,091lv | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Aug 16, 26 – Aug 17, 26 | 800lv | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | unrated | Jul 13, 26 – Jul 16, 26 | 1,060lv | 52 | 43 | D+9.0 |
| Wick | unrated | Jun 27, 26 – Jun 30, 26 | 1,175lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jun 23, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 1,002rv | 56 | 43 | D+13.0 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Apr 3, 26 – Apr 9, 26 | 407lv | 51 | 44 | D+7.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Feb 28, 26 – Mar 2, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 9, 25 – Sep 12, 25 | 624rv | 38 | 38 | Even |
| TIPP Insights | B | Jul 28, 25 – Aug 1, 25 | 2,956rv | 45 | 44 | D+1.0 |
| Cygnal (R) | unrated | May 15, 25 – May 17, 25 | 800lv | 46 | 43 | D+3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Apr 24, 25 – Apr 27, 25 | 1,426lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| WPA Intelligence (R) | unrated | Jan 14, 25 – Jan 15, 25 | 500lv | 44 | 34 | D+10.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Targoz Market Research: leans D 4.9 (n=2)SurveyUSA: leans D 4.4 (n=4)RMG Research: leans D 3.3 (n=2)AtlasIntel: leans D 2.7 (n=3)Siena/NYT: leans D 1.9 (n=2)Data for Progress: leans D 1.4 (n=4)Morning Consult: leans D 1.3 (n=2)Emerson: leans D 0.9 (n=5)U. Georgia SPIA: leans D 0.8 (n=2)Trafalgar Group: leans D 0.8 (n=8)Swayable: leans D 0.3 (n=2)Landmark Communications: leans D 0.2 (n=5)East Carolina University: leans D 0.1 (n=2)InsiderAdvantage: leans R 0.1 (n=7)Remington: leans R 3.6 (n=2)Moore Information: leans R 5.5 (n=2)
Michigan · 71 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies | unrated | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 2, 26 | 1,001lv | 51 | 49 | D+2.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 500lv | 51 | 45 | D+6.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,087lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | unrated | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 510lv | 51 | 41 | D+10.0 |
| Research Co. | unrated | Oct 30, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 450lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| AtlasIntel | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,316lv | 54 | 46 | D+8.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Oct 23, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,011lv | 53 | 42 | D+11.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Nov 1, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | — | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 745lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 2,093lv | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 |
| CNN/SSRS | unrated | Oct 29, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | — | 49 | 42 | D+7.0 |
| Upswing Research (D) | unrated | Oct 24, 26 – Oct 28, 26 | 505lv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | unrated | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 27, 26 | 636lv | 51 | 44 | D+7.0 |
| SSRS | unrated | Oct 20, 26 – Oct 27, 26 | 768lv | 49 | 42 | D+7.0 |
| Data for Progress (D) | B | Oct 23, 26 – Oct 25, 26 | 622lv | 50 | 46 | D+4.0 |
| RedBox Research (D) | unrated | Oct 20, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 2,696lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| Michigan State University/Verasight | unrated | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 1,383lv | 51 | 43 | D+8.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Oct 21, 26 – Oct 22, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Oct 19, 26 – Oct 22, 26 | 600lv | 51 | 45 | D+6.0 |
| Michigan State University/YouGov | unrated | Oct 2, 26 – Oct 19, 26 | 836lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| Marist University | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 18, 26 | —lv | 50 | 48 | D+2.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Oct 12, 26 – Oct 14, 26 | 798lv | 46 | 44 | D+2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Oct 9, 26 – Oct 10, 26 | 1,200lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| The Tyson Group (R) | unrated | Oct 6, 26 – Oct 8, 26 | 600lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 5, 26 – Oct 6, 26 | 762lv | 48 | 47 | D+1.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 22, 26 – Oct 4, 26 | 3,949lv | 49 | 48 | D+1.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | unrated | Oct 1, 26 – Oct 1, 26 | 682lv | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
| Z to A Research (D) | unrated | Sep 28, 26 – Oct 1, 26 | 483lv | 49 | 42 | D+7.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 28, 26 – Sep 30, 26 | 1,085lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Sep 24, 26 – Sep 28, 26 | 1,028lv | 50 | 49 | D+1.0 |
| The Tyson Group (R) | unrated | Sep 24, 26 – Sep 27, 26 | 600lv | 44 | 43 | D+1.0 |
| Marist University | unrated | Sep 24, 26 – Sep 27, 26 | 1,235rv | 51 | 44 | D+7.0 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy | unrated | Sep 20, 26 – Sep 27, 26 | 800lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | unrated | Sep 22, 26 – Sep 24, 26 | 678lv | 47 | 42 | D+5.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 21, 26 – Sep 23, 26 | 843lv | 45 | 45 | Even |
| GBAO (D) | unrated | Sep 19, 26 – Sep 22, 26 | 800lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Sep 15, 26 – Sep 22, 26 | 605lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) | unrated | Sep 18, 26 – Sep 21, 26 | 600lv | 45 | 40 | D+5.0 |
| Suffolk University | A- | Sep 16, 26 – Sep 20, 26 | 500lv | 47 | 40 | D+7.0 |
| Torchlight Strategies (R) | unrated | Sep 15, 26 – Sep 19, 26 | 643lv | 43 | 44 | R+1.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 16, 26 – Sep 17, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Sep 12, 26 – Sep 14, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| The Washington Post/SSPG | unrated | Sep 10, 26 – Sep 14, 26 | 803lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 7, 26 – Sep 9, 26 | 1,079lv | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| SSRS | unrated | Aug 31, 26 – Sep 6, 26 | 843lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Aug 31, 26 – Sep 3, 26 | 600lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| Abacus Data | unrated | Aug 26, 26 – Aug 28, 26 | 332lv | 49 | 45 | D+4.0 |
| EPIC-MRA | unrated | Aug 22, 26 – Aug 28, 26 | 600lv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| Michigan State University/YouGov | unrated | Aug 10, 26 – Aug 20, 26 | 779lv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | unrated | Aug 11, 26 – Aug 17, 26 | 800lv | 46 | 39 | D+7.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | unrated | Aug 9, 26 – Aug 11, 26 | 877lv | 48 | 47 | D+1.0 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | unrated | Aug 6, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 1,215lv | 45 | 42 | D+3.0 |
| GBAO (D) | unrated | Aug 6, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 800lv | 50 | 44 | D+6.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Aug 6, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 1,006rv | 47 | 51 | R+4.0 |
| EPIC-MRA | unrated | Jul 24, 26 – Jul 31, 26 | 600lv | 43 | 46 | R+3.0 |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | unrated | Jul 28, 26 – Jul 30, 26 | 640lv | 41 | 42 | R+1.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | unrated | Jul 28, 26 – Jul 29, 26 | 672lv | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Jul 22, 26 – Jul 24, 26 | 600lv | 39 | 49 | R+10.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Jun 29, 26 – Jun 30, 26 | 947lv | 45 | 44 | D+1.0 |
| Data for Progress (D) | B | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 22, 26 | 709lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| Zenith Research (D) | unrated | Jun 11, 26 – Jun 14, 26 | 602lv | 45 | 42 | D+3.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | unrated | Jun 11, 26 – Jun 13, 26 | 827lv | 47 | 42 | D+5.0 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | unrated | Jun 2, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 500lv | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | unrated | May 20, 26 – May 23, 26 | 1,163lv | 43 | 42 | D+1.0 |
| Mitchell Research | unrated | May 1, 26 – May 7, 26 | 607lv | 41 | 42 | R+1.0 |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Apr 28, 26 – May 1, 26 | 600lv | 40 | 45 | R+5.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Jan 24, 26 – Jan 25, 26 | 1,000lv | 43 | 43 | Even |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | Jan 2, 26 – Jan 6, 26 | 600lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | unrated | Nov 18, 25 – Nov 21, 25 | 616lv | 38 | 41 | R+3.0 |
| Rosetta Stone Communications (R) | unrated | Oct 23, 25 – Oct 25, 25 | 637lv | 31 | 45 | R+14.0 |
| Glengariff Group | unrated | May 5, 25 – May 8, 25 | 600rv | 41 | 47 | R+6.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Swayable: leans D 10.3 (n=2)Research Co.: leans D 9.5 (n=3)CNN/SSRS: leans D 8.5 (n=2)Gravis Marketing (2020 and earlier): leans D 7.9 (n=2)PPP: leans D 7.8 (n=2)Glengariff Group Inc.: leans D 7.2 (n=3)Morning Consult: leans D 5.7 (n=4)RMG Research: leans D 5.5 (n=2)Ipsos: leans D 4.8 (n=4)Beacon/Shaw: leans D 4.5 (n=2)Siena/NYT: leans D 4.0 (n=2)EPIC/MRA: leans D 3.2 (n=4)Emerson: leans D 3.1 (n=4)Patriot Polling: leans D 1.9 (n=2)Mitchell: leans D 1.5 (n=8)AtlasIntel: leans D 1.0 (n=5)Change Research: leans D 0.7 (n=3)InsiderAdvantage: leans D 0.3 (n=2)Tarrance: leans R 0.7 (n=3)Trafalgar Group: leans R 0.8 (n=5)
North Carolina · 53 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,459lv | 56 | 42 | D+14.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Nov 1, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | — | 55 | 44 | D+11.0 |
| East Carolina University | unrated | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 1,041lv | 54 | 45 | D+9.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 2,130lv | 55 | 44 | D+11.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 24, 26 – Oct 25, 26 | 722lv | 51 | 43 | D+8.0 |
| RedBox Research (D) | unrated | Oct 20, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 3,292lv | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Oct 18, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 600lv | 49 | 39 | D+10.0 |
| ActiVote | unrated | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 400lv | 57 | 43 | D+14.0 |
| High Point University/YouGov | unrated | Oct 1, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 620lv | 54 | 40 | D+14.0 |
| SurveyUSA | B | Oct 7, 26 – Oct 11, 26 | 643lv | 54 | 40 | D+14.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 10, 26 | 1,091lv | 49 | 41 | D+8.0 |
| Elon University/YouGov | unrated | Sep 29, 26 – Oct 8, 26 | 561lv | 52 | 39 | D+13.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Oct 1, 26 – Oct 7, 26 | 829lv | 50 | 40 | D+10.0 |
| East Carolina University | unrated | Sep 30, 26 – Oct 3, 26 | 810lv | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 |
| Big Data Poll | unrated | Sep 27, 26 – Sep 29, 26 | 642lv | 47 | 35 | D+12.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 21, 26 – Sep 22, 26 | 686lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | unrated | Sep 17, 26 – Sep 20, 26 | 1,806lv | 53 | 42 | D+11.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics | unrated | Sep 17, 26 – Sep 20, 26 | 857lv | 51 | 41 | D+10.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 15, 26 – Sep 18, 26 | 3,742lv | 53 | 41 | D+12.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 16, 26 – Sep 17, 26 | 1,200lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| High Point University | unrated | Sep 9, 26 – Sep 16, 26 | 706lv | 50 | 42 | D+8.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Sep 13, 26 – Sep 15, 26 | 608lv | 49 | 34 | D+15.0 |
| Catawba College/YouGov | unrated | Sep 4, 26 – Sep 15, 26 | 885lv | 47 | 35 | D+12.0 |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 1,084lv | 48 | 42 | D+6.0 |
| East Carolina University | unrated | Aug 31, 26 – Sep 3, 26 | 675lv | 46 | 39 | D+7.0 |
| Elon University/YouGov | unrated | Aug 21, 26 – Aug 31, 26 | 565lv | 49 | 38 | D+11.0 |
| High Point University/YouGov | unrated | Aug 3, 26 – Aug 12, 26 | 660lv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Aug 9, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 600lv | 52 | 39 | D+13.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Aug 3, 26 – Aug 6, 26 | 915lv | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Jul 29, 26 – Aug 1, 26 | 967rv | 50 | 41 | D+9.0 |
| Elon University/YouGov | unrated | Jul 23, 26 – Jul 31, 26 | 466lv | 53 | 42 | D+11.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jul 23, 26 – Jul 27, 26 | 1,005rv | 53 | 44 | D+9.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Jul 10, 26 – Jul 11, 26 | 759lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 601lv | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 |
| Catawba College/YouGov | unrated | Jun 1, 26 – Jun 10, 26 | 905lv | 48 | 34 | D+14.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | May 10, 26 – May 11, 26 | 600lv | 50 | 39 | D+11.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | May 4, 26 – May 8, 26 | 957lv | 49 | 42 | D+7.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics (R) | unrated | Apr 21, 26 – Apr 24, 26 | 830rv | 50 | 41 | D+9.0 |
| High Point University/YouGov | unrated | Mar 26, 26 – Apr 6, 26 | 703lv | 50 | 42 | D+8.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Mar 31, 26 – Apr 1, 26 | 987lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Mar 22, 26 – Mar 23, 26 | 600lv | 49 | 41 | D+8.0 |
| Catawba College/YouGov | unrated | Mar 9, 26 – Mar 18, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 34 | D+14.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Mar 13, 26 – Mar 14, 26 | 556rv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Nexus Strategies/ Strategic Partners Solutions | unrated | Mar 8, 26 – Mar 9, 26 | 800rv | 50 | 32 | D+18.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Jan 31, 26 – Feb 4, 26 | 1,069rv | 50 | 40 | D+10.0 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | unrated | Jan 12, 26 – Jan 15, 26 | 1,512rv | 48 | 24 | D+24.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Jan 5, 26 – Jan 7, 26 | 1,105lv | 47 | 42 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Nov 9, 25 – Nov 10, 25 | 600lv | 47 | 39 | D+8.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 25 – Sep 15, 25 | 600rv | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Sep 2, 25 – Sep 8, 25 | 855lv | 48 | 41 | D+7.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | unrated | Aug 11, 25 – Aug 12, 25 | 600rv | 47 | 39 | D+8.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Jul 28, 25 – Jul 30, 25 | 1,000rv | 47 | 41 | D+6.0 |
| Victory Insights (R) | unrated | Jul 28, 25 – Jul 30, 25 | 600lv | 43 | 40 | D+3.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Marist: leans D 7.5 (n=2)Morning Consult: leans D 7.2 (n=2)Change Research: leans D 6.8 (n=2)Civiqs: leans D 5.5 (n=2)Siena/NYT: leans D 5.3 (n=2)Swayable: leans D 4.7 (n=2)Meredith College: leans D 4.4 (n=2)Ipsos: leans D 3.5 (n=4)Rasmussen: leans D 3.3 (n=2)Data for Progress: leans D 3.2 (n=3)Emerson: leans D 1.8 (n=3)East Carolina University: leans D 1.6 (n=3)Trafalgar Group: leans R 1.4 (n=3)
Maine · 39 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Nov 2, 26 | 896lv | 49 | 46 | D+3.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 600lv | 49 | 51 | R+2.0 |
| AtlasIntel | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 967lv | 53 | 44 | D+9.0 |
| Survey 160 | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,323lv | 50 | 47 | D+3.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 714lv | 51 | 45 | D+6.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Nov 1, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | — | 52 | 47 | D+5.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Oct 31, 26 | 1,654lv | 54 | 45 | D+9.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 1,503lv | 52 | 47 | D+5.0 |
| CNN/SSRS | unrated | Oct 29, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | — | 49 | 45 | D+4.0 |
| Data for Progress (D) | B | Oct 23, 26 – Oct 27, 26 | 652lv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| SSRS | unrated | Oct 20, 26 – Oct 26, 26 | 783lv | 49 | 45 | D+4.0 |
| Marist University | unrated | Oct 22, 26 – Oct 25, 26 | —lv | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Oct 21, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 1,077lv | 47 | 47 | Even |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 16, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 413lv | 51 | 44 | D+7.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Oct 16, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 1,514lv | 49 | 49 | Even |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Oct 13, 26 – Oct 14, 26 | 1,200lv | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 |
| Suffolk University | A- | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 11, 26 | 500lv | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Oct 5, 26 – Oct 8, 26 | 804lv | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 |
| The Washington Post/SSPG | unrated | Sep 30, 26 – Oct 5, 26 | 800lv | 50 | 46 | D+4.0 |
| Marist University | unrated | Oct 1, 26 – Oct 4, 26 | 1,505rv | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 29, 26 – Oct 1, 26 | 1,091lv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| CBS News/YouGov | B+ | Sep 23, 26 – Oct 1, 26 | 1,136lv | 50 | 50 | Even |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 28, 26 – Sep 30, 26 | 1,240lv | 46 | 48 | R+2.0 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | unrated | Sep 25, 26 – Sep 29, 26 | 684lv | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 22, 26 – Sep 23, 26 | 1,200lv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | unrated | Sep 20, 26 – Sep 22, 26 | 982lv | 50 | 47 | D+3.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Sep 15, 26 – Sep 22, 26 | 619lv | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Sep 17, 26 – Sep 21, 26 | 1,312lv | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 15, 26 | 621lv | 47 | 48 | R+1.0 |
| University of Massachusetts/YouGov | unrated | Aug 28, 26 – Sep 14, 26 | 650lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 1,033lv | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 2, 26 – Sep 8, 26 | 1,335lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| SSRS | unrated | Aug 31, 26 – Sep 6, 26 | 880lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Abacus Data | unrated | Aug 26, 26 – Aug 28, 26 | 327lv | 52 | 43 | D+9.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Aug 6, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 1,000rv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| Hart Research (D) | unrated | Jul 27, 26 – Aug 1, 26 | 802lv | 49 | 45 | D+4.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Jul 15, 26 – Jul 20, 26 | 1,178lv | 49 | 46 | D+3.0 |
| Z to A Research (D) | unrated | Jul 7, 26 – Jul 8, 26 | 988lv | 47 | 48 | R+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Jul 7, 26 – Jul 7, 26 | 785lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
New Hampshire · 35 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,057lv | 52 | 44 | D+8.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Oct 31, 26 | 2,040lv | 54 | 42 | D+12.0 |
| National Public Affairs (R) | unrated | Oct 25, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 800lv | 51 | 45 | D+6.0 |
| UMass Lowell | A | Oct 29, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | — | 48 | 41 | D+7.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Oct 20, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 970lv | 50 | 44 | D+6.0 |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Oct 19, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 1,672lv | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | unrated | Oct 2, 26 – Oct 19, 26 | 600lv | 48 | 41 | D+7.0 |
| National Public Affairs (R) | unrated | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 12, 26 | 600lv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 28, 26 – Oct 5, 26 | 1,520lv | 51 | 43 | D+8.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Oct 2, 26 – Oct 4, 26 | 979lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Sep 28, 26 – Sep 29, 26 | 1,042lv | 51 | 44 | D+7.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 26, 26 – Sep 27, 26 | 1,082lv | 47 | 41 | D+6.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Sep 15, 26 – Sep 22, 26 | 613lv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Sep 17, 26 – Sep 21, 26 | 1,418lv | 50 | 42 | D+8.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 16, 26 – Sep 17, 26 | 1,200lv | 48 | 40 | D+8.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 9, 26 – Sep 11, 26 | 958lv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 1,000lv | 45 | 34 | D+11.0 |
| Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates (R) | unrated | Aug 27, 26 – Aug 30, 26 | 600lv | 36 | 37 | R+1.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Aug 20, 26 – Aug 24, 26 | 1,878lv | 43 | 45 | R+2.0 |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Aug 17, 26 – Aug 18, 26 | 1,411lv | 48 | 41 | D+7.0 |
| Peak Insights (R) | unrated | Jun 24, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 500lv | 43 | 42 | D+1.0 |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Jun 24, 26 – Jun 25, 26 | 1,614rv | 47 | 41 | D+6.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Jun 18, 26 – Jun 23, 26 | 2,232lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Apr 17, 26 – Apr 21, 26 | 1,295lv | 49 | 42 | D+7.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Mar 21, 26 – Mar 23, 26 | 1,000lv | 45 | 44 | D+1.0 |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Mar 16, 26 – Mar 18, 26 | 1,491rv | 46 | 43 | D+3.0 |
| yes. every kid. | unrated | Jan 28, 26 – Jan 29, 26 | 563lv | 45 | 41 | D+4.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Jan 15, 26 – Jan 19, 26 | 2,053lv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | unrated | Dec 26, 25 – Dec 28, 25 | 603rv | 42 | 36 | D+6.0 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy (R) | unrated | Dec 9, 25 – Dec 11, 25 | 600lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Saint Anselm College | unrated | Nov 18, 25 – Nov 19, 25 | 2,212rv | 44 | 41 | D+3.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Oct 9, 25 – Oct 13, 25 | 1,034lv | 45 | 42 | D+3.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Sep 17, 25 – Sep 23, 25 | 1,235lv | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 10, 25 – Sep 12, 25 | 904lv | 46 | 43 | D+3.0 |
| 1892 Polling (R) | unrated | Sep 2, 25 – Sep 4, 25 | 500lv | 45 | 43 | D+2.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
U. Massachusetts - Lowell: leans D 2.1 (n=2)Data for Progress: leans R 4.6 (n=2)Emerson: leans R 4.8 (n=2)St. Anselm: leans R 5.4 (n=2)U. New Hampshire: leans R 5.9 (n=2)InsiderAdvantage: leans R 7.9 (n=2)
Ohio · 56 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | B+ | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 930lv | 46 | 48 | R+2.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,092lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Research Co. | unrated | Oct 30, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 450lv | 45 | 44 | D+1.0 |
| AtlasIntel | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,801lv | 51 | 44 | D+7.0 |
| Survey 160 | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,122lv | 50 | 46 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Oct 26, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 717lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Nov 1, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | — | 50 | 48 | D+2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | B- | Nov 1, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | — | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Oct 31, 26 | 1,119lv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| ActiVote | unrated | Oct 18, 26 – Oct 31, 26 | 400lv | 50 | 50 | Even |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Oct 29, 26 – Oct 30, 26 | 1,200lv | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 2,090lv | 50 | 48 | D+2.0 |
| Suffolk University | A- | Oct 28, 26 – Oct 28, 26 | — | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Suffolk University | A- | Oct 21, 26 – Oct 26, 26 | 500lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | unrated | Oct 22, 26 – Oct 24, 26 | 496lv | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 |
| RedBox Research (D) | unrated | Oct 20, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 2,998lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 16, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 508lv | 47 | 47 | Even |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Oct 21, 26 – Oct 22, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Verasight/VoteHub | unrated | Oct 1, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 531lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 19, 26 | 1,592lv | 52 | 47 | D+5.0 |
| Marist University | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 18, 26 | —lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Oct 12, 26 – Oct 14, 26 | 901lv | 47 | 49 | R+2.0 |
| GS Strategy Group (R)/ New River Strategies (D) | unrated | Oct 9, 26 – Oct 13, 26 | 959lv | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Sep 29, 26 – Oct 9, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 42 | D+6.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Oct 5, 26 – Oct 6, 26 | 925lv | 45 | 46 | R+1.0 |
| SSRS | unrated | Sep 29, 26 – Oct 5, 26 | 760lv | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Sep 22, 26 – Oct 1, 26 | 616lv | 49 | 46 | D+3.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 18, 26 – Sep 30, 26 | 3,780lv | 49 | 45 | D+4.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 28, 26 – Sep 29, 26 | 1,200lv | 44 | 43 | D+1.0 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | unrated | Sep 26, 26 – Sep 27, 26 | 680lv | 46 | 43 | D+3.0 |
| Marist University | unrated | Sep 24, 26 – Sep 27, 26 | 1,298rv | 51 | 43 | D+8.0 |
| Suffolk University | A- | Sep 23, 26 – Sep 27, 26 | 500lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Sep 22, 26 – Sep 23, 26 | 1,115lv | 46 | 43 | D+3.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 21, 26 – Sep 23, 26 | 695lv | 47 | 47 | Even |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 16, 26 | 1,085lv | 45 | 42 | D+3.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Sep 1, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 9, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 42 | D+5.0 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | unrated | Aug 29, 26 – Aug 31, 26 | 504lv | 50 | 40 | D+10.0 |
| Abacus Data | unrated | Aug 26, 26 – Aug 28, 26 | 306lv | 52 | 46 | D+6.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Aug 6, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 1,008rv | 53 | 45 | D+8.0 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | unrated | Jul 29, 26 – Aug 4, 26 | 600lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 28, 26 | 601lv | 47 | 50 | R+3.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | unrated | Jun 14, 26 – Jun 16, 26 | 800lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | unrated | Jun 2, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 600lv | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | May 28, 26 – Jun 1, 26 | 1,015rv | 53 | 45 | D+8.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Apr 7, 26 – Apr 14, 26 | 1,000rv | 47 | 50 | R+3.0 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Apr 3, 26 – Apr 9, 26 | 413lv | 45 | 51 | R+6.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Mar 13, 26 – Mar 14, 26 | 784lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| OnMessage Public Strategies (R) | unrated | Mar 3, 26 – Mar 8, 26 | 600lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| EMC Research (D) | unrated | Feb 10, 26 – Feb 22, 26 | 1,343lv | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Dec 6, 25 – Dec 8, 25 | 850rv | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Oct 2, 25 – Oct 14, 25 | 800rv | 49 | 48 | D+1.0 |
| Hart Research (D) | unrated | Sep 19, 25 – Sep 22, 25 | 800lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Aug 18, 25 – Aug 19, 25 | 1,000rv | 44 | 50 | R+6.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Apr 18, 25 – Apr 24, 25 | 800rv | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | unrated | Feb 14, 25 – Feb 21, 25 | 800rv | 41 | 47 | R+6.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Baldwin Wallace University: leans D 11.5 (n=2)Research Co.: leans D 2.6 (n=2)Morning Consult: leans D 2.6 (n=2)Cygnal: leans D 1.9 (n=10)Trafalgar Group: leans D 1.0 (n=3)ActiVote: leans D 0.7 (n=2)Emerson: leans R 1.4 (n=3)
Texas · 84 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | unrated | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 2, 26 | 450lv | 49 | 46 | D+3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,089lv | 48 | 48 | Even |
| Emerson College | B+ | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 500lv | 50 | 48 | D+2.0 |
| AtlasIntel | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,678lv | 51 | 45 | D+6.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,215lv | 50 | 43 | D+7.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Nov 1, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | — | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 |
| Kreate Strategies | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Oct 30, 26 | 900lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Quantus Insights | unrated | Oct 30, 26 – Oct 30, 26 | — | 48 | 49 | R+1.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 2,141lv | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 |
| CNN/SSRS | unrated | Oct 29, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | — | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 |
| TSU/YouGov | unrated | Oct 29, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | — | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 |
| Quantus Insights | unrated | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 28, 26 | 1,221lv | 48 | 49 | R+1.0 |
| ActiVote | unrated | Oct 22, 26 – Oct 28, 26 | 400lv | 52 | 48 | D+4.0 |
| A2 Insights | unrated | Oct 23, 26 – Oct 27, 26 | 631lv | 50 | 47 | D+3.0 |
| SSRS | unrated | Oct 20, 26 – Oct 27, 26 | 923lv | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 |
| Data for Progress (D) | B | Oct 23, 26 – Oct 26, 26 | 712lv | 49 | 45 | D+4.0 |
| YouGov Blue (D) | unrated | Oct 21, 26 – Oct 26, 26 | 1,000rv | 51 | 43 | D+8.0 |
| Texas Southern University | unrated | Oct 21, 26 – Oct 25, 26 | 2,000lv | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | B- | Oct 20, 26 – Oct 21, 26 | 965lv | 45 | 45 | Even |
| ActiVote | unrated | Oct 17, 26 – Oct 21, 26 | 400lv | 51 | 49 | D+2.0 |
| Univision/YouGov | unrated | Oct 13, 26 – Oct 21, 26 | 1,000rv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| Verasight/VoteHub | unrated | Oct 1, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 509lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Oct 17, 26 – Oct 19, 26 | 1,000lv | 49 | 48 | D+1.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 19, 26 | 1,398lv | 49 | 49 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 18, 26 | 969lv | 51 | 47 | D+4.0 |
| Pollfinity Research | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 18, 26 | 278rv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| CBS News/YouGov | B+ | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 16, 26 | 1,492lv | 51 | 49 | D+2.0 |
| Cor Strategies (R) | unrated | Oct 10, 26 – Oct 15, 26 | 1,409lv | 44 | 40 | D+4.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | B- | Oct 13, 26 – Oct 14, 26 | 1,200lv | 48 | 49 | R+1.0 |
| University of Houston | unrated | Oct 10, 26 – Oct 14, 26 | 2,000lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| ActiVote | unrated | Sep 30, 26 – Oct 14, 26 | 400lv | 52 | 48 | D+4.0 |
| GS Strategy Group (R)/ New River Strategies (D) | unrated | Oct 9, 26 – Oct 13, 26 | 934lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| Quantus Insights | unrated | Oct 9, 26 – Oct 11, 26 | 854lv | 47 | 47 | Even |
| Marist University | unrated | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 11, 26 | —lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Oct 6, 26 – Oct 8, 26 | 1,086lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | unrated | Oct 5, 26 – Oct 8, 26 | 617lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 28, 26 – Oct 5, 26 | 3,625lv | 50 | 44 | D+6.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | unrated | Sep 25, 26 – Oct 5, 26 | 861lv | 50 | 47 | D+3.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Sep 21, 26 – Sep 30, 26 | 615lv | 51 | 45 | D+6.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | B- | Sep 28, 26 – Sep 29, 26 | 1,128lv | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Sep 24, 26 – Sep 28, 26 | 881lv | 51 | 49 | D+2.0 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy (R) | unrated | Sep 20, 26 – Sep 28, 26 | 800lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | unrated | Sep 18, 26 – Sep 28, 26 | 850lv | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Pulse Decision Science (R) | unrated | Sep 24, 26 – Sep 27, 26 | 800lv | 45 | 48 | R+3.0 |
| Big Data Poll | unrated | Sep 24, 26 – Sep 26, 26 | 698lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) | unrated | Sep 22, 26 – Sep 24, 26 | 856lv | 48 | 48 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | unrated | Sep 19, 26 – Sep 22, 26 | 1,007lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| Marist University | unrated | Sep 17, 26 – Sep 20, 26 | 1,139rv | 50 | 44 | D+6.0 |
| Texas Southern University | unrated | Sep 15, 26 – Sep 19, 26 | 1,800lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 15, 26 – Sep 17, 26 | 1,079lv | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Sep 12, 26 – Sep 14, 26 | 1,000lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| SoCal Strategies | unrated | Sep 12, 26 – Sep 13, 26 | 649lv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 11, 26 | 614lv | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 |
| Mason-Dixon | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 625lv | 46 | 43 | D+3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | B- | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 9, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| Univision/YouGov | unrated | Aug 27, 26 – Sep 4, 26 | 1,000rv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | unrated | Aug 30, 26 – Sep 1, 26 | 895lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| Overton Insights (R) | unrated | Aug 24, 26 – Aug 26, 26 | 1,167lv | 50 | 50 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | unrated | Aug 21, 26 – Aug 24, 26 | 1,000lv | 48 | 42 | D+6.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | unrated | Aug 5, 26 – Aug 13, 26 | 1,200rv | 42 | 39 | D+3.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Aug 9, 26 – Aug 10, 26 | 1,000lv | 46 | 47 | R+1.0 |
| YouGov Blue (D) | unrated | Jul 15, 26 – Jul 31, 26 | 1,001rv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University | unrated | Jul 27, 26 – Jul 30, 26 | 619lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| Texas Southern University | unrated | Jul 27, 26 – Jul 30, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jul 23, 26 – Jul 27, 26 | 1,005rv | 51 | 48 | D+3.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | unrated | Jul 15, 26 – Jul 17, 26 | 1,048lv | 45 | 40 | D+5.0 |
| A2 Insights | unrated | Jun 23, 26 – Jun 28, 26 | 618lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 19, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 656lv | 47 | 47 | Even |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | unrated | Jun 21, 26 – Jun 21, 26 | 800lv | 47 | 49 | R+2.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | unrated | Jun 5, 26 – Jun 12, 26 | 1,200rv | 42 | 43 | R+1.0 |
| Quantus Insights | unrated | Jun 3, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 800lv | 43 | 45 | R+2.0 |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University | unrated | Jun 1, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 807lv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | unrated | May 27, 26 – May 28, 26 | 1,670lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | May 22, 26 – May 23, 26 | 643rv | 45 | 38 | D+7.0 |
| Texas Southern University | unrated | Apr 22, 26 – May 6, 26 | 1,223lv | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | unrated | Apr 17, 26 – Apr 20, 26 | 1,018lv | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | unrated | Apr 10, 26 – Apr 20, 26 | 1,200rv | 42 | 34 | D+8.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | unrated | Mar 12, 26 – Mar 17, 26 | 900lv | 44 | 43 | D+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Mar 4, 26 – Mar 5, 26 | 576rv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| University of Houston/YouGov | unrated | Jan 20, 26 – Jan 31, 26 | 1,502lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Jan 10, 26 – Jan 12, 26 | 1,165rv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R) | unrated | Nov 12, 25 – Nov 17, 25 | 1,000lv | 44 | 44 | Even |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University | unrated | Sep 19, 25 – Oct 1, 25 | 1,650rv | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
| UT Tyler | unrated | Sep 17, 25 – Sep 24, 25 | 1,032rv | 37 | 38 | R+1.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Data for Progress: leans D 7.0 (n=3)Morning Consult: leans D 5.8 (n=4)Emerson: leans D 4.0 (n=3)GBAO: leans D 3.5 (n=2)ActiVote: leans D 3.3 (n=2)Cygnal: leans D 3.0 (n=2)University of Texas at Tyler: leans D 2.4 (n=3)Siena/NYT: leans D 2.1 (n=2)Swayable: leans D 0.7 (n=2)Quinnipiac: leans D 0.6 (n=2)YouGov: leans D 0.5 (n=2)
Iowa · 42 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,219lv | 51 | 46 | D+5.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Oct 26, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 705lv | 48 | 47 | D+1.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Nov 1, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | — | 50 | 49 | D+1.0 |
| GrayHouse (R) | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Oct 31, 26 | 601lv | 46 | 48 | R+2.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Oct 31, 26 | 901lv | 46 | 47 | R+1.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 2,020lv | 50 | 49 | D+1.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Oct 28, 26 | 1,020lv | 46 | 48 | R+2.0 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 16, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 403lv | 45 | 43 | D+2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Oct 21, 26 – Oct 22, 26 | 1,200lv | 45 | 47 | R+2.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 19, 26 | 863lv | 45 | 48 | R+3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Oct 13, 26 – Oct 15, 26 | 1,094lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| GS Strategy Group (R)/ New River Strategies (D) | unrated | Oct 9, 26 – Oct 13, 26 | 602lv | 46 | 44 | D+2.0 |
| NPA Polling | unrated | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 12, 26 | 678lv | 44 | 47 | R+3.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Oct 6, 26 – Oct 12, 26 | 2,245lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| Marist University | unrated | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 11, 26 | —lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Oct 5, 26 – Oct 6, 26 | 650lv | 45 | 47 | R+2.0 |
| SSRS | unrated | Sep 29, 26 – Oct 5, 26 | 801lv | 43 | 45 | R+2.0 |
| Suffolk University | A- | Oct 1, 26 – Oct 4, 26 | 500lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Sep 22, 26 – Oct 1, 26 | 606lv | 47 | 48 | R+1.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Sep 28, 26 – Sep 30, 26 | 1,048lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 28, 26 – Sep 29, 26 | 738lv | 46 | 47 | R+1.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Sep 24, 26 – Sep 28, 26 | 1,008lv | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 22, 26 – Sep 23, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| Marist University | unrated | Sep 17, 26 – Sep 20, 26 | 1,050rv | 50 | 42 | D+8.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 16, 26 – Sep 18, 26 | 1,089lv | 42 | 44 | R+2.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 16, 26 | 831lv | 42 | 46 | R+4.0 |
| Cygnal (R) | unrated | Sep 9, 26 – Sep 11, 26 | 500lv | 43 | 43 | Even |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 1,031lv | 45 | 40 | D+5.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 3, 26 – Sep 8, 26 | 2,041lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Aug 31, 26 – Sep 1, 26 | 750lv | 45 | 50 | R+5.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | unrated | Aug 27, 26 – Aug 31, 26 | 800lv | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 |
| Abacus Data | unrated | Aug 26, 26 – Aug 28, 26 | 323lv | 54 | 45 | D+9.0 |
| Suffolk University | A- | Aug 20, 26 – Aug 23, 26 | 500lv | 41 | 45 | R+4.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Aug 2, 26 – Aug 4, 26 | 712lv | 45 | 48 | R+3.0 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | unrated | Jun 23, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 1,003rv | 50 | 46 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Jun 15, 26 – Jun 27, 26 | 600lv | 46 | 48 | R+2.0 |
| Cygnal (R) | unrated | Jun 16, 26 – Jun 19, 26 | 600lv | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | unrated | Jun 8, 26 – Jun 11, 26 | 1,000lv | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Jun 3, 26 – Jun 4, 26 | 557rv | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Apr 3, 26 – Apr 9, 26 | 377lv | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| GQR (D) | unrated | Mar 10, 26 – Mar 16, 26 | 1,200lv | 43 | 47 | R+4.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Jan 8, 26 – Jan 11, 26 | 1,108lv | 41 | 44 | R+3.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Change Research: leans D 8.3 (n=2)Civiqs: leans D 6.8 (n=2)InsiderAdvantage: leans D 6.0 (n=2)Emerson: leans D 6.0 (n=2)Selzer: leans D 1.3 (n=2)
Alaska · 9 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/Siena | A- | Oct 23, 26 – Oct 30, 26 | 610lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | unrated | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 1,326lv | 51 | 49 | D+2.0 |
| Data for Progress | B | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 16, 26 | 675lv | 49 | 46 | D+3.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | unrated | Oct 14, 26 – Oct 15, 26 | 578rv | 48 | 47 | D+1.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | B- | Oct 12, 26 – Oct 15, 26 | 775lv | 47 | 48 | R+1.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | unrated | Oct 10, 26 – Oct 15, 26 | 1,708lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | B- | Oct 9, 26 – Oct 10, 26 | 1,200lv | 50 | 48 | D+2.1 |
| Alaska Survey Research | unrated | Oct 1, 26 – Oct 3, 26 | 1,512lv | 51 | 49 | D+2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | unrated | Mar 19, 26 – Mar 22, 26 | 1,283lv | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
Alabama · 5 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chism Strategies / Blueprint Polling | unrated | Oct 22, 26 – Oct 24, 26 | 695lv | 40 | 48 | R+8.0 |
| Cygnal | unrated | Oct 16, 26 – Oct 17, 26 | 500lv | 35 | 50 | R+15.0 |
| The Alabama Poll | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 16, 26 | 600lv | 35 | 56 | R+21.0 |
| RMG Research (R) | unrated | Sep 21, 26 – Sep 25, 26 | 800rv | 33 | 54 | R+21.0 |
| yes. every kid. | unrated | Jul 8, 26 – Jul 11, 26 | 601lv | 32 | 47 | R+15.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Swayable: leans D 8.3 (n=2)Cygnal: leans D 6.5 (n=2)
Arkansas · 7 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse (R) | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Oct 28, 26 | 509lv | 39 | 55 | R+16.0 |
| Hendrix College | unrated | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 13, 26 | 709lv | 41 | 50 | R+9.0 |
| GrayHouse | unrated | Sep 30, 26 – Oct 4, 26 | 550lv | 39 | 50 | R+11.0 |
| J.L. Partners | unrated | Aug 14, 26 – Aug 18, 26 | 803lv | 35 | 51 | R+16.0 |
| Hendrix College | unrated | Aug 11, 26 – Aug 12, 26 | 1,217lv | 47 | 44 | D+3.4 |
| 2040 Strategy Group | unrated | Jul 17, 26 – Jul 25, 26 | 586lv | 43 | 46 | R+3.0 |
| GrayHouse | unrated | Feb 7, 26 – Feb 9, 26 | 550lv | 36 | 58 | R+22.0 |
Colorado · 4 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keating Research (D) | unrated | Nov 1, 26 – Nov 2, 26 | 400lv | 58 | 37 | D+21.0 |
| Research Co. | unrated | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 2, 26 | 450lv | 57 | 35 | D+22.0 |
| CU Boulder/YouGov | unrated | Oct 9, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 710lv | 57 | 39 | D+18.0 |
| Lake Research Partners / HIT Strategies | unrated | Sep 30, 26 – Sep 30, 26 | 600 | 56 | 42 | D+14.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson: leans D 1.2 (n=2)Civiqs: leans D 0.0 (n=2)Morning Consult: leans R 1.4 (n=2)co/efficient: leans R 2.9 (n=2)Data for Progress: leans R 4.0 (n=2)
Florida · 12 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Data Poll | unrated | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 30, 26 | 1,129lv | 42 | 48 | R+6.0 |
| Stetson University | unrated | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 30, 26 | 852rv | 45 | 49 | R+4.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | B- | Oct 28, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 1,200lv | 43 | 49 | R+6.0 |
| St. Pete Polls | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Oct 28, 26 | — | 45 | 49 | R+4.0 |
| Political Matrix / The Listener Group | unrated | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 28, 26 | 500lv | 36 | 42 | R+6.0 |
| ActiVote | unrated | Oct 17, 26 – Oct 27, 26 | 400lv | 47 | 53 | R+6.0 |
| NYT/Siena | A- | Oct 19, 26 – Oct 25, 26 | 813lv | 44 | 50 | R+6.0 |
| University of North Florida | unrated | Oct 12, 26 – Oct 19, 26 | 1,471lv | 45 | 49 | R+4.0 |
| Univision/YouGov | unrated | Oct 2, 26 – Oct 15, 26 | 825rv | 42 | 51 | R+9.0 |
| ActiVote | unrated | Sep 27, 26 – Oct 15, 26 | 400lv | 47 | 53 | R+6.2 |
| Stetson University | unrated | Oct 1, 26 – Oct 9, 26 | 716lv | 41 | 52 | R+11.0 |
| Mason-Dixon | unrated | Sep 28, 26 – Oct 1, 26 | 625lv | 40 | 50 | R+10.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Victory Insights: leans D 10.3 (n=2)Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research: leans D 7.1 (n=2)Data for Progress: leans D 6.9 (n=2)Quinnipiac: leans D 6.6 (n=2)Emerson: leans D 6.2 (n=2)YouGov: leans D 6.1 (n=3)ActiVote: leans D 5.7 (n=2)U. North Florida: leans D 5.4 (n=3)Cygnal: leans D 5.4 (n=2)Research Co.: leans D 4.4 (n=3)Gravis Marketing (2020 and earlier): leans D 3.6 (n=2)CNN/SSRS: leans D 3.6 (n=2)St. Pete Polls: leans D 2.1 (n=6)Trafalgar Group: leans D 0.4 (n=2)HarrisX: leans R 2.2 (n=9)
Idaho · 9 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus Research | unrated | Oct 21, 26 – Oct 22, 26 | 700lv | 43 | 49 | R+6.0 |
| Peak Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 13, 26 – Oct 15, 26 | 500lv | 27 | 54 | R+27.0 |
| Peak Insights | unrated | Sep 28, 26 – Sep 30, 26 | 500lv | 24 | 49 | R+25.0 |
| Advanced Targeting Research | unrated | Sep 13, 26 – Sep 16, 26 | 700rv | 50 | 39 | D+11.0 |
| Peak Insights | unrated | Aug 11, 26 – Aug 13, 26 | 500lv | 18 | 52 | R+34.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group | unrated | Aug 4, 26 – Aug 7, 26 | 608lv | 30 | 34 | R+4.0 |
| Change Research | unrated | Jul 28, 26 – Jul 30, 26 | 1,213lv | 21 | 45 | R+24.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group | unrated | May 29, 26 – Jun 1, 26 | 774rv | 36 | 40 | R+4.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | unrated | Mar 16, 26 – Mar 17, 26 | 639rv | 34 | 48 | R+14.0 |
Illinois · 4 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | unrated | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 2, 26 | 450lv | 53 | 41 | D+12.0 |
| ActiVote | unrated | Oct 21, 26 – Oct 30, 26 | 400lv | 56 | 44 | D+11.2 |
| ActiVote | unrated | Sep 26, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 400lv | 59 | 42 | D+17.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | unrated | Sep 30, 26 – Oct 1, 26 | 569rv | 49 | 36 | D+13.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Research Co.: leans D 4.3 (n=2)
Kansas · 25 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 2,038lv | 52 | 45 | D+7.0 |
| Survey 160 | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,267lv | 50 | 44 | D+6.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 736lv | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Nov 1, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | — | 50 | 49 | D+1.0 |
| Emerson | unrated | Oct 30, 26 – Oct 30, 26 | — | 50 | 47 | D+3.0 |
| Washington Post | unrated | Oct 30, 26 – Oct 30, 26 | — | 54 | 44 | D+10.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 2,092lv | 50 | 49 | D+1.0 |
| CNN/SSRS | unrated | Oct 29, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | — | 49 | 45 | D+4.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 28, 26 | 800lv | 50 | 47 | D+3.0 |
| The Washington Post/SSPG | unrated | Oct 22, 26 – Oct 26, 26 | 801lv | 52 | 43 | D+9.0 |
| SSRS | unrated | Oct 20, 26 – Oct 26, 26 | 838lv | 49 | 45 | D+4.0 |
| RedBox Research (D) | unrated | Oct 20, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 1,301lv | 45 | 46 | R+1.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Oct 13, 26 – Oct 14, 26 | 1,200lv | 47 | 48 | R+1.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Oct 9, 26 – Oct 10, 26 | 1,200lv | 48 | 47 | D+1.0 |
| GBAO (D) | unrated | Sep 30, 26 – Oct 4, 26 | 600lv | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 24, 26 – Oct 4, 26 | 2,255lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Sep 29, 26 – Oct 1, 26 | 1,095lv | 44 | 44 | Even |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Sep 22, 26 – Sep 30, 26 | 605lv | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Emerson College | B+ | Sep 15, 26 – Sep 16, 26 | 750lv | 45 | 43 | D+2.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | unrated | Sep 13, 26 – Sep 16, 26 | 800lv | 49 | 47 | D+2.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 915lv | 44 | 49 | R+5.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | unrated | Aug 12, 26 – Aug 16, 26 | 800lv | 44 | 43 | D+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Aug 7, 26 – Aug 8, 26 | 569lv | 45 | 46 | R+1.0 |
| GBAO (D) | unrated | Jul 8, 26 – Jul 13, 26 | 600lv | 43 | 47 | R+4.0 |
| Tavern Research (D) | unrated | Jan 26, 26 – Jan 28, 26 | 1,013lv | 46 | 54 | R+8.0 |
Kentucky · 2 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | unrated | Aug 24, 26 – Aug 27, 26 | 600lv | 40 | 49 | R+9.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Dec 18, 25 – Dec 19, 25 | 650rv | 38 | 49 | R+11.0 |
Louisiana · 4 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Park Strategies (D) | unrated | Oct 29, 26 – Oct 31, 26 | —lv | 47 | 47 | Even |
| Hart Research Associates | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 502lv | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Hart Research Associates | unrated | Sep 17, 26 – Sep 19, 26 | 500lv | 44 | 48 | R+4.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | unrated | Jul 21, 26 – Jul 22, 26 | 518rv | 37 | 41 | R+4.0 |
Massachusetts · 16 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Oct 31, 26 | 905lv | 53 | 32 | D+21.0 |
| UMass Lowell | A | Oct 29, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | — | 55 | 26 | D+29.0 |
| Suffolk University | A- | Oct 14, 26 – Oct 18, 26 | 500lv | 60 | 32 | D+28.0 |
| UMass Lowell | A | Oct 7, 26 – Oct 18, 26 | 850lv | 55 | 26 | D+29.0 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | unrated | Oct 5, 26 – Oct 12, 26 | 800rv | 56 | 29 | D+27.0 |
| MassINC Polling Group | unrated | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 22, 26 | 800lv | 54 | 28 | D+26.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Sep 17, 26 – Sep 21, 26 | 564lv | 53 | 30 | D+23.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Aug 20, 26 – Aug 24, 26 | 881lv | 49 | 30 | D+19.0 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | unrated | Aug 5, 26 – Aug 12, 26 | 800rv | 51 | 30 | D+21.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Jun 18, 26 – Jun 23, 26 | 623lv | 50 | 34 | D+16.0 |
| Suffolk University | A- | Jun 8, 26 – Jun 12, 26 | 500lv | 55 | 30 | D+25.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Apr 16, 26 – Apr 20, 26 | 603lv | 55 | 32 | D+23.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Feb 12, 26 – Feb 16, 26 | 620lv | 56 | 27 | D+29.0 |
| Cygnal (R) | unrated | Jan 22, 26 – Jan 25, 26 | 800lv | 54 | 30 | D+24.0 |
| Suffolk University | A- | Nov 19, 25 – Nov 23, 25 | 500rv | 54 | 31 | D+23.0 |
| SurveyUSA | B | Feb 28, 25 – Mar 4, 25 | 775rv | 45 | 26 | D+19.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
MassINC Polling Group: leans R 0.1 (n=3)
Minnesota · 28 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | unrated | Oct 30, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 450lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| AtlasIntel | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 2,133lv | 48 | 46 | D+2.0 |
| Survey 160 | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 1,365lv | 52 | 43 | D+9.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | B- | Nov 1, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | — | 49 | 46 | D+3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Oct 29, 26 – Oct 30, 26 | 1,200lv | 49 | 46 | D+3.0 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | unrated | Oct 30, 26 – Oct 30, 26 | — | 48 | 41 | D+7.0 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | unrated | Oct 24, 26 – Oct 28, 26 | 714lv | 48 | 41 | D+7.0 |
| Siena/NYT | unrated | Oct 28, 26 – Oct 28, 26 | — | 54 | 40 | D+14.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Oct 19, 26 – Oct 26, 26 | 752lv | 54 | 40 | D+14.0 |
| Victory Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 21, 26 – Oct 22, 26 | 1,194lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Oct 20, 26 – Oct 21, 26 | 1,182lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | C+ | Oct 13, 26 – Oct 15, 26 | 1,079lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | unrated | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 12, 26 | 718lv | 45 | 42 | D+3.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | unrated | Oct 5, 26 – Oct 7, 26 | 800lv | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | unrated | Oct 5, 26 – Oct 7, 26 | 856lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
| Morning Consult | B | Oct 2, 26 – Oct 7, 26 | 1,000rv | 45 | 41 | D+4.0 |
| GQR (D) | unrated | Oct 1, 26 – Oct 4, 26 | 800lv | 53 | 44 | D+9.0 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | unrated | Sep 29, 26 – Sep 30, 26 | 622lv | 46 | 44 | D+2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | unrated | Sep 28, 26 – Sep 29, 26 | 1,200lv | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 15, 26 | 833lv | 43 | 42 | D+1.0 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | unrated | Sep 9, 26 – Sep 14, 26 | 654lv | 42 | 42 | Even |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 10, 26 | 720lv | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | unrated | Aug 31, 26 – Sep 2, 26 | 1,201lv | 44 | 42 | D+2.0 |
| Deep Root Analytics (R) | unrated | Aug 17, 26 – Aug 18, 26 | 597rv | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| KTSP/SurveyUSA | unrated | Aug 13, 26 – Aug 17, 26 | 661lv | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | unrated | May 26, 26 – May 28, 26 | 808lv | 51 | 44 | D+7.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Feb 6, 26 – Feb 8, 26 | 1,000lv | 47 | 41 | D+6.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | unrated | Jul 8, 25 – Jul 11, 25 | 604lv | 48 | 45 | D+3.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
St. Cloud State: leans D 6.8 (n=2)Research Co.: leans D 1.0 (n=3)SurveyUSA: leans R 2.5 (n=3)Change Research: leans R 5.2 (n=2)
Mississippi · 4 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | unrated | Oct 21, 26 – Oct 22, 26 | 842lv | 40 | 43 | R+3.0 |
| Data for Progress (D) | B | Aug 5, 26 – Aug 15, 26 | 1,018lv | 38 | 44 | R+6.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | unrated | Apr 8, 26 – Apr 12, 26 | 500lv | 39 | 42 | R+3.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | unrated | Jun 18, 25 – Jun 22, 25 | 500rv | 38 | 51 | R+13.0 |
Montana · 18 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | unrated | Oct 22, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 410lv | 39 | 38 | D+1.0 |
| Montana State University Billings | unrated | Oct 5, 26 – Oct 21, 26 | 720a | 26 | 30 | R+4.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 18, 26 | 667lv | 29 | 46 | R+17.0 |
| Peak Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 7, 26 – Oct 12, 26 | 500lv | 29 | 44 | R+15.0 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | unrated | Oct 6, 26 – Oct 8, 26 | 405lv | 37 | 35 | D+2.0 |
| American Pulse Research | unrated | Sep 19, 26 – Sep 24, 26 | 604lv | 26 | 45 | R+19.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | unrated | Sep 14, 26 – Sep 15, 26 | 625lv | 24 | 44 | R+20.0 |
| Aspect Strategic | unrated | Sep 7, 26 – Sep 15, 26 | 715lv | 32 | 44 | R+12.0 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | unrated | Aug 27, 26 – Sep 7, 26 | 845rv | 30 | 38 | R+8.0 |
| Peak Insights (R) | unrated | Aug 23, 26 – Aug 25, 26 | 600lv | 22 | 44 | R+22.0 |
| Hart Research (D) | unrated | Aug 1, 26 – Aug 4, 26 | 800lv | 30 | 45 | R+15.0 |
| Tavern Research (D) | unrated | Jul 23, 26 – Jul 27, 26 | 517lv | 25 | 49 | R+24.0 |
| GQR (D) | unrated | Jul 23, 26 – Jul 26, 26 | 500lv | 27 | 41 | R+14.0 |
| Bullfinch Group (R) | unrated | Jul 13, 26 – Jul 16, 26 | 793lv | 24 | 36 | R+12.0 |
| GrayHouse (R) | unrated | Jun 23, 26 – Jun 24, 26 | 500rv | 17 | 41 | R+24.0 |
| Hart Research (D) | unrated | Jun 18, 26 – Jun 24, 26 | 800lv | 25 | 47 | R+22.0 |
| Tavern Research (D) | unrated | Jun 16, 26 – Jun 19, 26 | 400lv | 24 | 49 | R+25.0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | unrated | Jun 8, 26 – Jun 11, 26 | 500lv | 20 | 44 | R+24.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
MSU - Billings: leans D 9.1 (n=2)HarrisX: leans D 3.4 (n=9)Change Research: leans R 0.3 (n=2)
Nebraska · 22 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse (R) | unrated | Oct 29, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | 534lv | 44 | 50 | R+6.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Nov 1, 26 – Nov 1, 26 | — | 49 | 49 | Even |
| Siena/NYT | unrated | Oct 31, 26 – Oct 31, 26 | — | 43 | 49 | R+6.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Oct 26, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 1,979lv | 49 | 49 | Even |
| National Public Affairs (R) | unrated | Oct 25, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 800lv | 45 | 48 | R+3.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | unrated | Oct 23, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 809lv | 43 | 49 | R+6.0 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | unrated | Oct 16, 26 – Oct 23, 26 | 407lv | 46 | 47 | R+1.0 |
| GBAO (D) | unrated | Oct 18, 26 – Oct 22, 26 | 800lv | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | unrated | Oct 14, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 600lv | 47 | 49 | R+2.0 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 18, 26 | 500lv | 48 | 41 | D+7.0 |
| National Public Affairs (R) | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 18, 26 | 598lv | 43 | 46 | R+3.0 |
| National Public Affairs (R) | unrated | Oct 2, 26 – Oct 5, 26 | 800lv | 43 | 46 | R+3.0 |
| YouGov | B+ | Sep 24, 26 – Oct 3, 26 | 1,809lv | 48 | 47 | D+1.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | unrated | Sep 28, 26 – Sep 30, 26 | 1,113lv | 40 | 45 | R+5.0 |
| SurveyUSA | B | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 13, 26 | 503lv | 46 | 42 | D+4.0 |
| GBAO (D) | unrated | Sep 3, 26 – Sep 8, 26 | 800lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | unrated | Aug 9, 26 – Aug 13, 26 | 600lv | 47 | 47 | Even |
| Tavern Research (D) | unrated | May 8, 26 – May 11, 26 | 1,165lv | 47 | 42 | D+5.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | unrated | Feb 2, 26 – Feb 5, 26 | 600lv | 47 | 48 | R+1.0 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | unrated | Dec 11, 25 – Dec 17, 25 | 900lv | 47 | 48 | R+1.0 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | unrated | Jul 23, 25 – Jul 29, 25 | 900lv | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| Change Research (D) | unrated | Mar 28, 25 – Apr 1, 25 | 524lv | 45 | 46 | R+1.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Change Research: leans D 7.7 (n=2)Torchlight Strategies: leans R 0.7 (n=2)
New Mexico · 4 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | unrated | Oct 31, 26 – Nov 2, 26 | 450lv | 56 | 37 | D+19.0 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | unrated | Oct 1, 26 – Oct 9, 26 | 1,125lv | 53 | 37 | D+16.0 |
| SurveyUSA | B | Sep 25, 26 – Sep 30, 26 | 567lv | 54 | 36 | D+18.0 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | unrated | Aug 21, 26 – Aug 28, 26 | 516lv | 53 | 38 | D+15.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Research & Polling: leans R 6.9 (n=3)
Oklahoma · 1 poll
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHS & Associates | unrated | Aug 3, 26 – Aug 6, 26 | 500rv | 25 | 49 | R+24.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Ascend Action: leans D 13.7 (n=2)
Rhode Island · 11 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Oct 31, 26 | 753lv | 63 | 32 | D+31.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Oct 8, 26 – Oct 11, 26 | 800lv | 59 | 25 | D+34.0 |
| Embold Research | unrated | Oct 5, 26 – Oct 8, 26 | 815lv | 55 | 32 | D+23.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Sep 17, 26 – Sep 21, 26 | 595lv | 53 | 33 | D+20.0 |
| UNH Survey Center | unrated | Sep 17, 26 – Sep 21, 26 | 598lv | 53 | 33 | D+20.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Aug 20, 26 – Aug 24, 26 | 750lv | 51 | 31 | D+20.0 |
| UNH Survey Center | unrated | Aug 20, 26 – Aug 24, 26 | 750lv | 51 | 31 | D+20.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Jun 18, 26 – Jun 23, 26 | 664lv | 52 | 35 | D+17.0 |
| UNH Survey Center | unrated | Jun 18, 26 – Jun 23, 26 | 664lv | 52 | 35 | D+17.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | unrated | Apr 16, 26 – Apr 20, 26 | 556lv | 52 | 34 | D+18.0 |
| UNH Survey Center | unrated | Apr 16, 26 – Apr 20, 26 | 556lv | 52 | 34 | D+18.0 |
South Carolina · 10 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patinkin Research Strategies | unrated | Oct 27, 26 – Oct 29, 26 | 500lv | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| NYT/Siena | A- | Oct 19, 26 – Oct 26, 26 | 707lv | 48 | 49 | R+0.7 |
| Targoz Market Research | unrated | Oct 16, 26 – Oct 25, 26 | 895lv | 46 | 47 | R+1.0 |
| The Citadel Poll | unrated | Oct 14, 26 – Oct 25, 26 | 890lv | 39 | 42 | R+3.0 |
| East Carolina University | unrated | Oct 19, 26 – Oct 24, 26 | 955lv | 47 | 51 | R+3.9 |
| Impact Research | unrated | Oct 15, 26 – Oct 21, 26 | 800lv | 45 | 44 | D+1.0 |
| Trafalgar Group | C+ | Oct 16, 26 – Oct 18, 26 | 1,095lv | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | B- | Oct 5, 26 – Oct 8, 26 | 837lv | 45 | 49 | R+4.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | B- | Sep 28, 26 – Sep 29, 26 | 1,200lv | 45 | 46 | R+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Jul 16, 26 – Jul 17, 26 | 577rv | 42 | — | — |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Morning Consult: leans D 10.2 (n=2)Data for Progress: leans D 8.8 (n=2)
South Dakota · 16 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | unrated | Oct 22, 26 – Oct 26, 26 | 448lv | 43 | 41 | D+2.0 |
| Emerson College | B+ | Oct 19, 26 – Oct 20, 26 | 803lv | 42 | 50 | R+8.0 |
| Quantus Insights | unrated | Oct 17, 26 – Oct 19, 26 | 633lv | 37 | 59 | R+22.0 |
| Public Opinon Strategies (R) | unrated | Oct 12, 26 – Oct 16, 26 | 500lv | 37 | 54 | R+17.0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | unrated | Oct 12, 26 – Oct 16, 26 | 500lv | 37 | 54 | R+17.0 |
| Mason-Dixon | unrated | Oct 12, 26 – Oct 14, 26 | 500lv | 37 | 56 | R+19.0 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | unrated | Oct 6, 26 – Oct 8, 26 | 400lv | 43 | 42 | D+1.0 |
| Zenith Research | unrated | Sep 24, 26 – Sep 27, 26 | 500lv | 47 | 53 | R+6.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Sep 8, 26 – Sep 9, 26 | 629rv | 42 | 45 | R+3.0 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | unrated | Aug 26, 26 – Aug 30, 26 | 500lv | 51 | 44 | D+7.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | unrated | Aug 13, 26 – Aug 17, 26 | 500lv | 44 | 44 | Even |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | unrated | Jul 6, 26 – Jul 9, 26 | 500lv | 33 | 56 | R+23.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | May 29, 26 – May 30, 26 | 726rv | 40 | 44 | R+4.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Feb 17, 26 – Feb 18, 26 | 685rv | 35 | 47 | R+12.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Nov 13, 25 – Nov 14, 25 | 814rv | 31 | 44 | R+13.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | unrated | Jul 30, 25 – Jul 31, 25 | 524lv | 28 | 41 | R+13.0 |
Tennessee · 2 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | unrated | Oct 24, 26 – Nov 2, 26 | 718lv | 37 | 57 | R+20.0 |
| Targoz Market Research | unrated | Aug 15, 26 – Aug 26, 26 | 1,157rv | 31 | 51 | R+20.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
ActiVote: leans D 7.5 (n=2)Cygnal: leans D 5.7 (n=2)
Virginia · 2 polls
| Pollster | Grade | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | unrated | Jun 12, 26 – Jun 16, 26 | 996lv | 51 | 33 | D+18.0 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | unrated | May 1, 26 – May 5, 26 | 1,047lv | 54 | 29 | D+25.0 |
In-state track record (actual − poll, our backtest)
Swayable: leans D 8.3 (n=2)Washington Post/George Mason University: leans D 5.5 (n=2)Roanoke College: leans D 3.0 (n=2)
National pollster grades
The rated pollster pool, best to worst. “SB error” is the Silver Bulletin absolute-error estimate (points; lower is better). “Our track record” is the mean actual-minus-poll error across the Senate races in our 2018–2024 backtest, where we have at least five of a pollster’s polls.
| Pollster | Grade | SB error | Our track record |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Lowell | A | 2.5 | — |
| Marist College | A- | 2.8 | — |
| Pew Research Center | A- | 2.8 | — |
| Marquette Law School | A- | 2.9 | — |
| New York Times/Siena College | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Siena College | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Suffolk University | A- | 3.0 | — |
| Gallup | A- | 3.0 | — |
| ABC News/Washington Post | B+ | 3.3 | — |
| YouGov | B+ | 3.3 | leans D 3.3 (n=22) |
| CNN | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Fox News | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Quinnipiac University | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| CBS News/YouGov | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Monmouth University | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| NBC News/Marist | B+ | 3.5 | — |
| Emerson College | B+ | 3.8 | — |
| SurveyUSA | B | 4.0 | leans D 2.2 (n=14) |
| HarrisX | B | 4.0 | leans D 0.3 (n=55) |
| TIPP Insights | B | 4.0 | — |
| Morning Consult | B | 4.5 | leans D 4.8 (n=30) |
| PPP | B | 4.5 | leans D 4.9 (n=13) |
| Data for Progress | B | 4.5 | leans D 1.9 (n=38) |
| Rasmussen Reports | B- | 4.8 | — |
| InsiderAdvantage | B- | 5.0 | leans R 1.6 (n=27) |
| Trafalgar Group | C+ | 5.2 | leans R 1.9 (n=43) |
| Remington Research | C+ | 5.5 | — |
How to read the grades
- National grade comes from Silver Bulletin’s pollster-error ratings, mapped to an A–C scale. Unrated feeds (aggregators, one-off shops) show as unrated and fall back to a B prior in the model.
- In-state track record is each pollster’s mean error in that specific state from our backtest. State samples are thin, so treat it as a directional signal, not a precise grade — it appears under a state once a pollster has a multi-cycle history there.
- A negative error means the pollster overstated Democrats(Republicans beat the poll); positive means it overstated Republicans. This is the same actual-minus-poll convention used in the forecast calibration.
A work in progress from the team at Policy y Peaches. Learn more here.
Last updated: Nov 6, 2026, 5:15 PM