Scorecard
How did we do?
The forecast and the picks were frozen before the first polls closed and are scored here against the certified results as they come in. No retroactive edits count.
Election night, live
The forecast, rerun on the races called so far
33 of 35 called · 2 reporting · updated Nov 6, 11:08 AM EST · reruns every 15 min · calls by The Associated Press
P(Democratic control) now
>99%
71% before polls closed (+30 pts)
Seats called so far
54 D · 44 R
Democrats have a majority
Expected Democratic seats
54.9
51.7 before polls closed
Called in the past hour
0
no new calls
Results map
Dem. win · flipRep. win · flipInd. winCounting (% of expected vote in)No results yetNo Senate race
P(Democratic control) through the night
Nov 3, 8:24 PM ESTnow >99% · 33 called
Called (33)
- Alabama Barry MooreR+9.499% inforecast gave 99%
- Arkansas Tom CottonR+11.899% inforecast gave 98%
- Colorado John HickenlooperD+25.096% inforecast gave 99%
- Delaware Chris CoonsD+27.199% inforecast gave 99%
- Florida Ashley MoodyR+2.999% inforecast gave 88%
- Georgia Jon OssoffD+18.199% inforecast gave 93%
- Idaho Jim Risch99% inforecast gave 97%
- Illinois Juliana StrattonD+23.794% inforecast gave 99%
- Iowa Josh TurekD+4.1flip99% inforecast gave 44%upset
- Kansas Adam HamiltonD+5.0flip99% inforecast gave 62%
- Kentucky Andy BarrR+12.199% inforecast gave 99%
- Louisiana Julia LetlowR+1.899% inforecast gave 87%
- Maine Troy JacksonD+6.4flip93% inforecast gave 74%
- Massachusetts Edward MarkeyD+31.299% inforecast gave >99%
- Michigan Abdul El-SayedD+7.098% inforecast gave 78%
- Minnesota Peggy FlanaganD+10.299% inforecast gave 86%
- Montana Kurt AlmeR+36.298% inforecast gave 95%
- Nebraska Pete Ricketts94% inforecast gave 77%
- New Hampshire Chris PappasD+13.898% inforecast gave 92%
- New Jersey Cory BookerD+27.196% inforecast gave 99%
- New Mexico Ben LujánD+26.598% inforecast gave 99%
- North Carolina Roy CooperD+19.6flip99% inforecast gave 96%
- Ohio Sherrod BrownD+4.9flip98% inforecast gave 64%
- Oklahoma Kevin HernR+17.999% inforecast gave 99%
- Oregon Jeff MerkleyD+17.884% inforecast gave 99%
- Rhode Island Jack ReedD+37.598% inforecast gave >99%
- South Carolina Annie AndrewsD+4.5flip99% inforecast gave 27%upset
- South Dakota Mike Rounds99% inforecast gave 97%
- Tennessee Bill HagertyR+12.299% inforecast gave 99%
- Texas James TalaricoD+12.1flip99% inforecast gave 66%
- Virginia Mark WarnerD+22.698% inforecast gave 99%
- West Virginia Shelley CapitoR+20.499% inforecast gave 99%
- Wyoming Harriet HagemanR+30.597% inforecast gave 99%
Still open (2)
| Race | Counting | Before | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlaskaP(D) | 74% inPeltola +0.3 | 54% | 74% | +20 pts |
| MississippiP(D) | 96% inColom +0.2 | 10% | 12% | +1 pts |
How it works: race calls and counts come from The Associated Press (via the New York Times results feed). Only calls move the forecast: the pre-election simulation is rerun keeping only the draws that agree with every call so far, so a surprise in one state shifts the odds in the states still counting. Partial counts are shown but not modelled. 3,624 of 200,000 simulations agree with the calls.
33 of 35 races called. Scored against the forecast and picks as committed on Nov 3, 2026, 12:38 PM ET (commit 49de11c), before the first polls closed. Updated Nov 6, 2026, 2:28 PM ET.
Model calls right
31/33
Brier 0.044
Model margin error
7.5 pts
bias +4.2 toward D
Picks right
13/15
margin error 6.5 pts
Senate seats (D)
54
2 races outstanding
Head to head
| Forecaster | Races | Calls right | Brier | Log-loss | Margin MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our simulation | 33 | 31/33 | 0.044 | 0.156 | 7.5 |
| Polls only (no fundamentals, no markets) | 23 | 21/23 | 0.067 | 0.226 | 6.1 |
| Polymarket | 23 | 22/23 | 0.056 | 0.201 | — |
| Tre's picks | 15 | 13/15 | 0.133 | 1.228 | 6.5 |
Brier is the mean squared error of the win probability: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip. Picks are scored as 100% confidence in the chosen side. Each row covers only the called races where that forecaster had a number, so the race counts differ.
Calibration — did 70% mean 70%?
0-20% · 12 races
said 4% · won 0%
20-40% · 2 races
said 25% · won 50%
40-60% · 1 races
said 44% · won 100%
60-80% · 5 races
said 69% · won 100%
80-100% · 13 races
said 97% · won 100%
| State | Result | Model | Miss | Pick | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Barry MooreR+9.4 | 1% DR+15.2✓ | +5.8 | — | 2% D✓ |
| Arkansas | Tom CottonR+11.8 | 2% DR+13.5✓ | +1.6 | — | 4% D✓ |
| Colorado | John HickenlooperD+25.0 | 99% DD+15.4✓ | +9.6 | — | — |
| Delaware | Chris CoonsD+27.1 | 99% DD+15.4✓ | +11.8 | — | — |
| Florida | Ashley MoodyR+2.9 | 12% DR+6.0✓ | +3.1 | R+9.5✓ | 11% D✓ |
| Georgia | Jon OssoffD+18.1 | 93% DD+8.0✓ | +10.1 | D+14.0✓ | 97% D✓ |
| Idaho | Jim Risch | 3% DR+11.6✓ | — | — | 3% D✓ |
| Illinois | Juliana StrattonD+23.7 | 99% DD+15.5✓ | +8.2 | — | 99% D✓ |
| Iowa | Josh TurekD+4.1 | 44% DR+0.7✗ | +4.8 | R+2.5✗ | 52% D✓ |
| Kansas | Adam HamiltonD+5.0 | 62% DD+1.6✓ | +3.4 | D+1.5✓ | 62% D✓ |
| Kentucky | Andy BarrR+12.1 | 1% DR+15.4✓ | +3.3 | — | — |
| Louisiana | Julia LetlowR+1.8 | 13% DR+5.9✓ | +4.1 | R+7.5✓ | 14% D✓ |
| Maine | Troy JacksonD+6.4 | 74% DD+3.2✓ | +3.1 | R+2.0✗ | 70% D✓ |
| Massachusetts | Edward MarkeyD+31.2 | >99% DD+21.5✓ | +9.7 | — | 99% D✓ |
| Michigan | Abdul El-SayedD+7.0 | 78% DD+3.8✓ | +3.2 | D+2.5✓ | 79% D✓ |
| Minnesota | Peggy FlanaganD+10.2 | 86% DD+5.6✓ | +4.6 | D+10.0✓ | 92% D✓ |
| Montana | Kurt AlmeR+36.2 | 5% DR+9.5✓ | -26.7 | R+9.0✓ | 7% D✓ |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts | 23% DR+3.6✓ | — | R+2.0✓ | 30% D✓ |
| New Hampshire | Chris PappasD+13.8 | 92% DD+7.5✓ | +6.3 | D+9.5✓ | 96% D✓ |
| New Jersey | Cory BookerD+27.1 | 99% DD+15.4✓ | +11.7 | — | — |
| New Mexico | Ben LujánD+26.5 | 99% DD+17.3✓ | +9.2 | — | >99% D✓ |
| North Carolina | Roy CooperD+19.6 | 96% DD+9.7✓ | +10.0 | D+10.5✓ | 98% D✓ |
| Ohio | Sherrod BrownD+4.9 | 64% DD+1.7✓ | +3.2 | D+3.5✓ | 73% D✓ |
| Oklahoma | Kevin HernR+17.9 | 1% DR+15.4✓ | -2.5 | — | — |
| Oregon | Jeff MerkleyD+17.8 | 99% DD+15.4✓ | +2.5 | — | — |
| Rhode Island | Jack ReedD+37.5 | >99% DD+20.3✓ | +17.2 | — | 99% D✓ |
| South Carolina | Annie AndrewsD+4.5 | 27% DR+3.0✗ | +7.5 | D+1.5✓ | 31% D✗ |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds | 3% DR+11.4✓ | — | — | 5% D✓ |
| Tennessee | Bill HagertyR+12.2 | 1% DR+15.4✓ | +3.2 | — | — |
| Texas | James TalaricoD+12.1 | 66% DD+1.9✓ | +10.2 | D+5.0✓ | 73% D✓ |
| Virginia | Mark WarnerD+22.6 | 99% DD+15.4✓ | +7.2 | — | — |
| West Virginia | Shelley CapitoR+20.4 | 1% DR+15.4✓ | -5.0 | — | — |
| Wyoming | Harriet HagemanR+30.5 | 1% DR+15.4✓ | -15.1 | — | — |
| Alaska | not called | 54% DD+0.5 | — | D+1.5 | 74% D |
| Mississippi | not called | 10% DR+6.6 | — | R+3.5 | 12% D |
What gets scored, and how
- The snapshot. The last data refresh committed before 6pm ET on November 3 is the record. Later refreshes and later edits to the picks file are ignored, so the 17 picks on file at that moment are the ones scored.
- The results. Pulled from each race’s Wikipedia article once a results table with real vote counts appears, with a hand-correction file for anything the scraper gets wrong. Only called races are scored, so early numbers move.
- The yardsticks. Calls right, Brier score and log-loss for probabilities; mean absolute error and bias for margins; the chamber call once all 35 races are in. Polymarket is scored on the races where it had a market.
A work in progress from the team at Policy y Peaches. Learn more here.
Last updated: Nov 6, 2026, 5:15 PM