Hijodeagua's guesses for the 2026 Senate map
Not the model — a human guess. Each race on the board gets a winner and a margin, shaded on the map from lean to safe, with the polling model’s median margin alongside so you can see where I’m out on a limb.
Click or tab to a state for the full matchup. Shading deepens with the predicted margin: under 3 points lean, 3–8 likely, 8+ safe. Unlabelled dark states are the safe holds not on the board; grey states have no Senate race this cycle.
Choose a state on the map or a row in the table below to see the matchup, the guess and how it compares to the model.
| State | Held by | Matchup | Hijodeagua’s guesses | Model | Δ vs model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine* | R | Troy Jackson (D)v.Susan Collins (R) | R+2.0 | D+3.576% D | -5.5 |
| New Hampshire* | Dopen | Chris Pappas (D)v.John E. Sununu (R) | D+9.5 | D+7.091% D | +2.5 |
| Ohio* | R | Sherrod Brown (D)v.Jon Husted (R) | D+3.5 | D+1.361% D | +2.2 |
| North Carolina* | Ropen | Roy Cooper (D)v.Michael Whatley (R) | D+10.5 | D+9.195% D | +1.4 |
| South Carolina* | R | Annie Andrews (D)v.Darline Graham (R) | D+1.5 | R+3.126% D | +4.6 |
| Georgia | D | Jon Ossoff (D)v.Mike Collins (R) | D+14.0 | D+7.492% D | +6.6 |
| Florida* | R | Angie Nixon (D)v.Ashley Moody (R) | R+9.5 | R+5.813% D | -3.7 |
| Michigan* | Dopen | Abdul El-Sayed (D)v.Mike Rogers (R) | D+2.5 | D+0.957% D | +1.6 |
| Mississippi* | R | Scott Colom (D)v.Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)v.Ty Pinkins (I) | R+3.5 | R+4.021% D | +0.5 |
| Louisiana* | Ropen | Jamie Davis (D)v.Julia Letlow (R) | R+7.5 | R+5.913% D | -1.6 |
| Iowa* | Ropen | Josh Turek (D)v.Ashley Hinson (R) | R+2.5 | R+1.042% D | -1.5 |
| Minnesota* | Dopen | Peggy Flanagan (D)v.Michele Tafoya (R) | D+10.0 | D+5.184% D | +4.9 |
| Texas* | Ropen | James Talarico (D)v.Ken Paxton (R) | D+5.0 | D+1.663% D | +3.4 |
| Kansas | R | Adam Hamilton (D)v.Roger Marshall (R) | D+1.5 | D+1.058% D | +0.5 |
| Nebraska* | R | Pete Ricketts (R)v.Dan Osborn (I) | R+2.0 | R+4.021% D | +2.0 |
| Montana* | Ropen | Alani Bankhead (D)v.Kurt Alme (R)v.Seth Bodnar (I) | R+9.0 | R+10.24% D | +1.2 |
| Alaska* | R | Mary Peltola (D)v.Dan Sullivan (R) | D+1.5 | D+0.554% D | +1.0 |
Model columns come from the Senate simulation on this site (median Dem−Rep margin and the Democrat’s win probability). * marks a special election or other note; hover the asterisk to read it.
Your call vs. the model
Add a display name and a winner for each race (margin optional). No login — an edit token stays in this browser so you can change your mind until Nov 3, 2026, 6:00 PM ET, when every entry locks.
| Race | Model | Markets | Hijodeagua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | D+3.5 | — | R+2.0≠ |
| New Hampshire | D+7.0 | — | D+9.5 |
| Ohio | D+1.3 | — | D+3.5 |
| North Carolina | D+9.1 | — | D+10.5 |
| South Carolina | R+3.1 | — | D+1.5≠ |
| Georgia | D+7.4 | — | D+14.0 |
| Florida | R+5.8 | — | R+9.5 |
| Michigan | D+0.9 | R 99% | D+2.5 |
| Mississippi | R+4.0 | D 98% | R+3.5 |
| Louisiana | R+5.9 | — | R+7.5 |
| Iowa | R+1.0 | — | R+2.5 |
| Minnesota | D+5.1 | — | D+10.0 |
| Texas | D+1.6 | — | D+5.0 |
| Kansas | D+1.0 | R 57% | D+1.5 |
| Nebraska | R+4.0 | — | R+2.0 |
| Montana | R+10.2 | — | R+9.0 |
| Alaska | D+0.5 | D 73% | D+1.5 |
| Differs from model | — | 3 | 2 |
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Model = the simulation’s median winner and margin. Markets = the Polymarket / Kalshi favourite and its win chance, refreshed with the site data. Shaded cells with ≠ call a different winner than the model. Scoring against results comes after election day.
A work in progress from the team at Policy y Peaches. Learn more here.
Last updated: Nov 6, 2026, 5:15 PM