EXTRAVAGANZA
FORM-DRIVEN TRACKERS
How the room split

Pick distribution

Used answers from the Google Form. Mostly just piped the answers straight in, with some light edits. Still tweaking a few of the model answers. The model is based on simulations from an Elo based model, run on every NFL game from 1999 to 2025.

Found a bug or something off? Let me know here.

Division winners

AFC East

11 answers · 2 distinct
11PICKS
  • Buffalo Billsmodel10 picks91%
  • New England Patriotsalone1 pick9%

AFC North

11 answers · 2 distinct
11PICKS
  • Baltimore Ravensmodel9 picks82%
  • Cincinnati Bengals2 picks18%

AFC South

11 answers · 2 distinct
11PICKS
  • Houston Texansmodel7 picks64%
  • Jacksonville Jaguars4 picks36%

AFC West

11 answers · 3 distinct
11PICKS
  • Kansas City Chiefs4 picks36%
  • Los Angeles Chargers4 picks36%
  • Denver Broncosmodel3 picks27%

NFC East

11 answers · 2 distinct
11PICKS
  • Dallas Cowboys7 picks64%
  • Philadelphia Eaglesmodel4 picks36%

NFC North

11 answers · 4 distinct
11PICKS
  • Detroit Lionsmodel4 picks36%
  • Green Bay Packers4 picks36%
  • Chicago Bears2 picks18%
  • Minnesota Vikingsalone1 pick9%

NFC South

11 answers · 3 distinct
11PICKS
  • New Orleans Saints4 picks36%
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneersmodel4 picks36%
  • Carolina Panthers3 picks27%

NFC West

11 answers · 3 distinct
11PICKS
  • Los Angeles Rams6 picks55%
  • Seattle Seahawksmodel4 picks36%
  • San Francisco 49ersalone1 pick9%

Awards

MVP

11 answers · 6 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Lamar Jackson4 picks36%
  • Josh Allen3 picks27%
  • Drake Mayealone1 pick9%
  • Joe Burrowalone1 pick9%
  • Justin Herbertalone1 pick9%
  • Patrick Mahomesalone1 pick9%

Offensive Player of the Year

11 answers · 6 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Saquon Barkley3 picks27%
  • Bijan Robinson2 picks18%
  • Jahmyr Gibbs2 picks18%
  • Puka Nacua2 picks18%
  • Derrick Henryalone1 pick9%
  • Ja'Marr Chasealone1 pick9%

Defensive Player of the Year

11 answers · 3 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Will Anderson Jr.5 picks45%
  • Myles Garrett4 picks36%
  • Patrick Surtain II2 picks18%

Offensive Rookie of the Year

11 answers · 6 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Carnell Tate4 picks36%
  • Jadarian Price2 picks18%
  • Jeremiyah Love2 picks18%
  • Fernando Mendozaalone1 pick9%
  • Maki lemonalone1 pick9%
  • Obialone1 pick9%

Defensive Rookie of the Year

11 answers · 3 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Caleb Downs6 picks55%
  • Rueben Bain Jr.4 picks36%
  • David Baileyalone1 pick9%

Comeback Player of the Year

11 answers · 5 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Patrick Mahomes6 picks55%
  • George Kittle2 picks18%
  • Aaron Donaldalone1 pick9%
  • Kyler Murrayalone1 pick9%
  • Nick Bosaalone1 pick9%

Coach of the Year

10 answers · 10 distinct · model abstained
10PICKS
  • Aaron Glennalone1 pick10%
  • Brian Schottenheimeralone1 pick10%
  • Dan Campbellalone1 pick10%
  • John Harbaughalone1 pick10%
  • Liam Cohenalone1 pick10%
  • New guy for Ravensalone1 pick10%
  • Nick siriannialone1 pick10%
  • Obialone1 pick10%
  • Panthers coachalone1 pick10%
  • Zac Minteralone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank

Super Bowl LXI MVP

11 answers · 7 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Josh Allen4 picks36%
  • Mahomes2 picks18%
  • Jalen hurtsalone1 pick9%
  • Joe Burrowalone1 pick9%
  • JSNalone1 pick9%
  • Puka Nacuaalone1 pick9%
  • Trent McDuffiealone1 pick9%

Dark Horse MVP

11 answers · 8 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Dak Prescott2 picks18%
  • Jalen Hurts2 picks18%
  • Jordan Love2 picks18%
  • Jahmyr Gibbsalone1 pick9%
  • Jared Goffalone1 pick9%
  • Myles Garrettalone1 pick9%
  • Saquon Barkleyalone1 pick9%
  • Trevor Lawrencealone1 pick9%

Super Bowl

Super Bowl LXI Champion

11 answers · 6 distinct
11PICKS
  • Buffalo Bills4 picks36%
  • Kansas City Chiefs2 picks18%
  • Los Angeles Rams2 picks18%
  • Cincinnati Bengalsalone1 pick9%
  • Philadelphia Eaglesalone1 pick9%
  • Seattle Seahawksmodelalone1 pick9%

Combined points, Super Bowl LXI

11 answers · 9 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • 423 picks27%
  • 25alone1 pick9%
  • 31alone1 pick9%
  • 35alone1 pick9%
  • 44alone1 pick9%
  • 45alone1 pick9%
  • 57alone1 pick9%
  • 67alone1 pick9%
  • 68alone1 pick9%

Seeding & records

1 seed in the AFC

11 answers · 4 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Buffalo Bills6 picks55%
  • Baltimore Ravens2 picks18%
  • Houston Texans2 picks18%
  • Cincinnati Bengalsalone1 pick9%

1 seed in the NFC

11 answers · 4 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Los Angeles Rams5 picks45%
  • Seattle Seahawks3 picks27%
  • Detroit Lions2 picks18%
  • San Francisco 49ersalone1 pick9%

Most wins, both conferences

11 answers · 8 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Los Angeles Rams3 picks27%
  • Buffalo Bills2 picks18%
  • Baltimore Ravensalone1 pick9%
  • Cincinnati Bengalsalone1 pick9%
  • Dallas Cowboysalone1 pick9%
  • Detroit Lionsalone1 pick9%
  • Houston Texansalone1 pick9%
  • Seattle Seahawksalone1 pick9%

Worst record in the league

11 answers · 5 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Cleveland Browns4 picks36%
  • Arizona Cardinals3 picks27%
  • Miami Dolphins2 picks18%
  • Atlanta Falconsalone1 pick9%
  • New York Jetsalone1 pick9%

Conference titles

AFC Champion

11 answers · 4 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Buffalo Bills5 picks45%
  • Kansas City Chiefs4 picks36%
  • Baltimore Ravensalone1 pick9%
  • Cincinnati Bengalsalone1 pick9%

NFC Champion

11 answers · 4 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Los Angeles Rams5 picks45%
  • Detroit Lions3 picks27%
  • Seattle Seahawks2 picks18%
  • Philadelphia Eaglesalone1 pick9%

Stat leaders

Passing yards leader

11 answers · 8 distinct · model abstained
11PICKS
  • Joe Burrow3 picks27%
  • Justin Herbert2 picks18%
  • Dakalone1 pick9%
  • Dak Prescottalone1 pick9%
  • Josh Allenalone1 pick9%
  • Mahomesalone1 pick9%
  • Mayealone1 pick9%
  • Trevor lawsrencealone1 pick9%

Rushing yards leader

10 answers · 6 distinct · model abstained
10PICKS
  • Jahmyr Gibbs3 picks30%
  • Bijan2 picks20%
  • Derrick Henry2 picks20%
  • Jonathan Tayloralone1 pick10%
  • Saquon Barkleyalone1 pick10%
  • Sequan barklyalone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank

Receiving yards leader

10 answers · 6 distinct · model abstained
10PICKS
  • Ja'Marr Chase4 picks40%
  • Jefferson2 picks20%
  • Amon-Ra St. Brownalone1 pick10%
  • Chase Brownalone1 pick10%
  • JSNalone1 pick10%
  • nacuaalone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank

Sack leader

10 answers · 5 distinct · model abstained
10PICKS
  • Myles Garrett5 picks50%
  • Will Anderson2 picks20%
  • Aidan Hutchinsonalone1 pick10%
  • Micah Parson beast mode post-injuryalone1 pick10%
  • Mike Singletaryalone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank

Hot seat

First head coach fired

10 answers · 7 distinct · model abstained
10PICKS
  • Aaron Glenn4 picks40%
  • Arizonaalone1 pick10%
  • Browns coachalone1 pick10%
  • Dan Quinnalone1 pick10%
  • Jetsalone1 pick10%
  • Mike McCarthyalone1 pick10%
  • Todd Bowlesalone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank

First Week 1 starting QB benched

10 answers · 7 distinct · model abstained
10PICKS
  • Jacoby Brissett2 picks20%
  • Kirk Cousins2 picks20%
  • Tua2 picks20%
  • Desaun watsonalone1 pick10%
  • I’m not counting Cooper Rush for the Falcons (unless you doalone1 pick10%
  • Rodgersalone1 pick10%
  • Tua Tagovailoaalone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank