How the room split
Pick distribution
Used answers from the Google Form. Mostly just piped the answers straight in, with some light edits. Still tweaking a few of the model answers. The model is based on simulations from an Elo based model, run on every NFL game from 1999 to 2025.
Found a bug or something off? Let me know here.
Division winners
AFC East
11 answers · 2 distinct
- Buffalo Billsmodel10 picks91%
- New England Patriotsalone1 pick9%
AFC North
11 answers · 2 distinct
- Baltimore Ravensmodel9 picks82%
- Cincinnati Bengals2 picks18%
AFC South
11 answers · 2 distinct
- Houston Texansmodel7 picks64%
- Jacksonville Jaguars4 picks36%
AFC West
11 answers · 3 distinct
- Kansas City Chiefs4 picks36%
- Los Angeles Chargers4 picks36%
- Denver Broncosmodel3 picks27%
NFC East
11 answers · 2 distinct
- Dallas Cowboys7 picks64%
- Philadelphia Eaglesmodel4 picks36%
NFC North
11 answers · 4 distinct
- Detroit Lionsmodel4 picks36%
- Green Bay Packers4 picks36%
- Chicago Bears2 picks18%
- Minnesota Vikingsalone1 pick9%
NFC South
11 answers · 3 distinct
- New Orleans Saints4 picks36%
- Tampa Bay Buccaneersmodel4 picks36%
- Carolina Panthers3 picks27%
NFC West
11 answers · 3 distinct
- Los Angeles Rams6 picks55%
- Seattle Seahawksmodel4 picks36%
- San Francisco 49ersalone1 pick9%
Awards
MVP
11 answers · 6 distinct · model abstained
- Lamar Jackson4 picks36%
- Josh Allen3 picks27%
- Drake Mayealone1 pick9%
- Joe Burrowalone1 pick9%
- Justin Herbertalone1 pick9%
- Patrick Mahomesalone1 pick9%
Offensive Player of the Year
11 answers · 6 distinct · model abstained
- Saquon Barkley3 picks27%
- Bijan Robinson2 picks18%
- Jahmyr Gibbs2 picks18%
- Puka Nacua2 picks18%
- Derrick Henryalone1 pick9%
- Ja'Marr Chasealone1 pick9%
Defensive Player of the Year
11 answers · 3 distinct · model abstained
- Will Anderson Jr.5 picks45%
- Myles Garrett4 picks36%
- Patrick Surtain II2 picks18%
Offensive Rookie of the Year
11 answers · 6 distinct · model abstained
- Carnell Tate4 picks36%
- Jadarian Price2 picks18%
- Jeremiyah Love2 picks18%
- Fernando Mendozaalone1 pick9%
- Maki lemonalone1 pick9%
- Obialone1 pick9%
Defensive Rookie of the Year
11 answers · 3 distinct · model abstained
- Caleb Downs6 picks55%
- Rueben Bain Jr.4 picks36%
- David Baileyalone1 pick9%
Comeback Player of the Year
11 answers · 5 distinct · model abstained
- Patrick Mahomes6 picks55%
- George Kittle2 picks18%
- Aaron Donaldalone1 pick9%
- Kyler Murrayalone1 pick9%
- Nick Bosaalone1 pick9%
Coach of the Year
10 answers · 10 distinct · model abstained
- Aaron Glennalone1 pick10%
- Brian Schottenheimeralone1 pick10%
- Dan Campbellalone1 pick10%
- John Harbaughalone1 pick10%
- Liam Cohenalone1 pick10%
- New guy for Ravensalone1 pick10%
- Nick siriannialone1 pick10%
- Obialone1 pick10%
- Panthers coachalone1 pick10%
- Zac Minteralone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank
Super Bowl LXI MVP
11 answers · 7 distinct · model abstained
- Josh Allen4 picks36%
- Mahomes2 picks18%
- Jalen hurtsalone1 pick9%
- Joe Burrowalone1 pick9%
- JSNalone1 pick9%
- Puka Nacuaalone1 pick9%
- Trent McDuffiealone1 pick9%
Dark Horse MVP
11 answers · 8 distinct · model abstained
- Dak Prescott2 picks18%
- Jalen Hurts2 picks18%
- Jordan Love2 picks18%
- Jahmyr Gibbsalone1 pick9%
- Jared Goffalone1 pick9%
- Myles Garrettalone1 pick9%
- Saquon Barkleyalone1 pick9%
- Trevor Lawrencealone1 pick9%
Super Bowl
Super Bowl LXI Champion
11 answers · 6 distinct
- Buffalo Bills4 picks36%
- Kansas City Chiefs2 picks18%
- Los Angeles Rams2 picks18%
- Cincinnati Bengalsalone1 pick9%
- Philadelphia Eaglesalone1 pick9%
- Seattle Seahawksmodelalone1 pick9%
Combined points, Super Bowl LXI
11 answers · 9 distinct · model abstained
- 423 picks27%
- 25alone1 pick9%
- 31alone1 pick9%
- 35alone1 pick9%
- 44alone1 pick9%
- 45alone1 pick9%
- 57alone1 pick9%
- 67alone1 pick9%
- 68alone1 pick9%
Seeding & records
1 seed in the AFC
11 answers · 4 distinct · model abstained
- Buffalo Bills6 picks55%
- Baltimore Ravens2 picks18%
- Houston Texans2 picks18%
- Cincinnati Bengalsalone1 pick9%
1 seed in the NFC
11 answers · 4 distinct · model abstained
- Los Angeles Rams5 picks45%
- Seattle Seahawks3 picks27%
- Detroit Lions2 picks18%
- San Francisco 49ersalone1 pick9%
Most wins, both conferences
11 answers · 8 distinct · model abstained
- Los Angeles Rams3 picks27%
- Buffalo Bills2 picks18%
- Baltimore Ravensalone1 pick9%
- Cincinnati Bengalsalone1 pick9%
- Dallas Cowboysalone1 pick9%
- Detroit Lionsalone1 pick9%
- Houston Texansalone1 pick9%
- Seattle Seahawksalone1 pick9%
Worst record in the league
11 answers · 5 distinct · model abstained
- Cleveland Browns4 picks36%
- Arizona Cardinals3 picks27%
- Miami Dolphins2 picks18%
- Atlanta Falconsalone1 pick9%
- New York Jetsalone1 pick9%
Conference titles
AFC Champion
11 answers · 4 distinct · model abstained
- Buffalo Bills5 picks45%
- Kansas City Chiefs4 picks36%
- Baltimore Ravensalone1 pick9%
- Cincinnati Bengalsalone1 pick9%
NFC Champion
11 answers · 4 distinct · model abstained
- Los Angeles Rams5 picks45%
- Detroit Lions3 picks27%
- Seattle Seahawks2 picks18%
- Philadelphia Eaglesalone1 pick9%
Stat leaders
Passing yards leader
11 answers · 8 distinct · model abstained
- Joe Burrow3 picks27%
- Justin Herbert2 picks18%
- Dakalone1 pick9%
- Dak Prescottalone1 pick9%
- Josh Allenalone1 pick9%
- Mahomesalone1 pick9%
- Mayealone1 pick9%
- Trevor lawsrencealone1 pick9%
Rushing yards leader
10 answers · 6 distinct · model abstained
- Jahmyr Gibbs3 picks30%
- Bijan2 picks20%
- Derrick Henry2 picks20%
- Jonathan Tayloralone1 pick10%
- Saquon Barkleyalone1 pick10%
- Sequan barklyalone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank
Receiving yards leader
10 answers · 6 distinct · model abstained
- Ja'Marr Chase4 picks40%
- Jefferson2 picks20%
- Amon-Ra St. Brownalone1 pick10%
- Chase Brownalone1 pick10%
- JSNalone1 pick10%
- nacuaalone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank
Sack leader
10 answers · 5 distinct · model abstained
- Myles Garrett5 picks50%
- Will Anderson2 picks20%
- Aidan Hutchinsonalone1 pick10%
- Micah Parson beast mode post-injuryalone1 pick10%
- Mike Singletaryalone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank
Hot seat
First head coach fired
10 answers · 7 distinct · model abstained
- Aaron Glenn4 picks40%
- Arizonaalone1 pick10%
- Browns coachalone1 pick10%
- Dan Quinnalone1 pick10%
- Jetsalone1 pick10%
- Mike McCarthyalone1 pick10%
- Todd Bowlesalone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank
First Week 1 starting QB benched
10 answers · 7 distinct · model abstained
- Jacoby Brissett2 picks20%
- Kirk Cousins2 picks20%
- Tua2 picks20%
- Desaun watsonalone1 pick10%
- I’m not counting Cooper Rush for the Falcons (unless you doalone1 pick10%
- Rodgersalone1 pick10%
- Tua Tagovailoaalone1 pick10%
1 person left this blank