Model v1 · as of 9/12/26
Tre model picks
The Can Tre Beat Vegas Elo, playing the rest of the season out 10,000 times and picking whatever won most often. Each replay plays every remaining game and then the entire bracket, wild card through a neutral-site Super Bowl, with the ratings updating inside the replay as results land.
Locked 2026-09-12, Week 1, with 2 of 272 games played. Nine picks only, division winners and the champion, because those are what the simulation produces. It does not guess at awards or stat leaders.
Super Bowl LXI champion
Seattle Seahawks
15%of 10,000 simulated seasons
Next best: Denver Broncos on 8%
Division winners
The share of full playthroughs each team won its division. A low number is not a weak pick, it is a close division.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
48%over New England Patriots · 36%
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
39%over Pittsburgh Steelers · 26%
AFC South
Houston Texans
49%over Jacksonville Jaguars · 33%
AFC West
Denver Broncos
53%over Los Angeles Chargers · 24%
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
50%over Dallas Cowboys · 18%
NFC North
Detroit Lions
30%over Minnesota Vikings · 28%
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31%over Atlanta Falcons · 29%
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks
57%over San Francisco 49ers · 29%
What a percentage here means. Seattle at 15% is not a prediction that they will win. It means that across 10,000 complete replays of this season they finished holding the trophy in 15% of them, which is the highest of any team and still says they lose far more often than they win. The division numbers read the same way.