EVERY MODEL,
ONE BOARD
One page for every forecasting model I run — whichever sport is in season sits on top, the rest wait their turn. TRACKER — bookmaker odds and experimental model picks. Not betting advice.
HIGH SCORE — STRAIGHT UP VS. THE MARKET
64.3%699–389 · 1088 graded games · 4 sports reporting
Log-loss
0.533
Brier
0.182
ROI
—
MLB
Off-season61–5751.7%2026-08-15
Soccer
In season148–15848.4%2026-09-20
College Football
In season420–13675.5%2026-10-29
NFL
In season70–3864.8%2026-10-29
NBA
In season———
Record · accuracy · last graded day, game-weighted across every graded day. A model only reports once its picks have been graded. ROI is an em dash — nothing here stakes money. Log-loss baseline: 0.693 = coin flip, ~0.691 = always pick home. Soccer picks are three-way (win/draw/loss), so its log loss reads against a ~1.10 baseline and stays out of the blended headline number.
DAILY MODELS
Country-pool club Elo across Europe’s top 5 leagues plus their second divisions, glued together by Champions/Europa/Conference League cross-play, with squad market value and transfer spend as extra outcome-model features. Picks are three-way (win/draw/loss), so its log loss reads on a different scale from the binary sports.
| Date | League | Match | H / D / A | Pick | Sim score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Bundesliga | SV 07 Elversberg v 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 28% / 28% / 44% | A | 1–2 |
| 2026-10-30 | Championship | Sheffield United FC v Wrexham AFC | 45% / 26% / 29% | H | 1–0 |
| 2026-10-30 | Ligue 1 | Havre AC v Paris Saint-Germain FC | 14% / 21% / 65% | A | 0–2 |
| 2026-10-30 | Ligue 1 | Lille OSC v Racing Club de Lens | 43% / 27% / 30% | H | 1–0 |
| 2026-10-31 | Bundesliga | Bayer 04 Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart | 56% / 22% / 22% | H | 2–1 |
| 2026-10-31 | Bundesliga | Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07 | 44% / 29% / 28% | H | 2–1 |
| 2026-10-31 | Bundesliga | FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg | 34% / 32% / 34% | H | 2–1 |
| 2026-10-31 | Bundesliga | FC Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund | 67% / 19% / 14% | H | 2–1 |
| 2026-10-31 | Bundesliga | FC Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig | 21% / 25% / 54% | A | 1–2 |
| 2026-10-31 | Bundesliga | SV Werder Bremen v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 27% / 26% / 47% | A | 1–2 |
| 2026-10-31 | Championship | Bolton Wanderers FC v Bristol City FC | 36% / 30% / 34% | H | 1–0 |
| 2026-10-31 | Championship | Burnley FC v Portsmouth FC | 53% / 25% / 23% | H | 1–0 |
24 more fixtures in the window — the full slate lives on the soccer page.
Running accuracy 48.4% · 306 matchesForecasts, ratings and the full slate →
🏀 NBA DAILY MODEL
10 GAMES · RUN 2026-10-30Logistic-regression winner model plus a ridge score model on rolling team stats.
Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards
2026-10-30 19:10 ET
Wizards ML
-75
Hornets ML
-112
Spread (home)
-0.1
Total
219.4
Market: Wizards 45% (no-vig)Since open (2026-08-12): spread -1.39 · total -16.11
🤖 No model pick for this game yet.
Book-by-book odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Book | Home ML | Away ML | Home spread | Away spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 | -118 | -102 | -108 | -112 |
| BetRivers | -112 | -109 | -112 | -109 | -112 | -109 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | — | — | -106 | -106 | -104 | -110 |
| BetOnline.ag | — | — | -110 | -110 | -107 | -113 |
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 | -102 | -120 | -120 | -102 |
| Bovada | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| BetUS | — | — | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -119 | -107 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics
2026-10-30 19:40 ET
Celtics ML
-900
Bulls ML
+591
Spread (home)
+14.9
Total
234.8
Market: Celtics 86% (no-vig)Since open (2026-08-12): spread -3.39 · total +2.28
🤖 No model pick for this game yet.
Book-by-book odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Book | Home ML | Away ML | Home spread | Away spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -950 | +625 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -770 | +525 | -115 | -106 | -107 | -114 |
| BetMGM | -900 | +575 | -110 | -110 | -115 | -105 |
| LowVig.ag | -883 | +631 | -106 | -106 | -104 | -110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -900 | +613 | -110 | -110 | -107 | -113 |
| FanDuel | -850 | +590 | -104 | -118 | -110 | -110 |
| Bovada | -850 | +550 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| BetUS | -1000 | +650 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1000 | +560 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Detroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets
2026-10-30 19:40 ET
Nets ML
+260
Pistons ML
-327
Spread (home)
-8.2
Total
221.6
Market: Nets 27% (no-vig)Since open (2026-08-12): spread +0.72 · total -3.94
🤖 No model pick for this game yet.
Book-by-book odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Book | Home ML | Away ML | Home spread | Away spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +260 | -325 | -115 | -105 | -108 | -112 |
| BetRivers | +255 | -335 | -114 | -107 | -110 | -110 |
| BetMGM | +260 | -325 | -118 | -102 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | +263 | -317 | -104 | -108 | -107 | -107 |
| BetOnline.ag | +260 | -320 | -108 | -112 | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | +280 | -350 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Bovada | +255 | -310 | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
| BetUS | +260 | -320 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| MyBookie.ag | +248 | -340 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
2026-10-30 19:40 ET
76ers ML
+84
Knicks ML
-126
Spread (home)
-1.6
Total
227.1
Market: 76ers 49% (no-vig)Since open (2026-08-12): spread +3.11 · total -4.44
🤖 No model pick for this game yet.
Book-by-book odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Book | Home ML | Away ML | Home spread | Away spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +105 | -125 | -105 | -115 | -112 | -108 |
| BetRivers | +110 | -132 | -105 | -117 | -110 | -110 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | +110 | -126 | -108 | -104 | -107 | -107 |
| BetOnline.ag | +108 | -128 | -112 | -108 | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
| Bovada | +105 | -125 | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
| BetUS | +105 | -125 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -103 | -124 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors
2026-10-30 19:40 ET
Raptors ML
-214
Magic ML
+177
Spread (home)
+5.5
Total
227.2
Market: Raptors 65% (no-vig)Since open (2026-09-28): spread -2 · total +0.67
🤖 No model pick for this game yet.
Book-by-book odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Book | Home ML | Away ML | Home spread | Away spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -218 | +180 | -115 | -105 | -108 | -112 |
| BetRivers | -225 | +180 | -114 | -107 | -108 | -113 |
| BetMGM | -220 | +180 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | -204 | +179 | -111 | -101 | -107 | -107 |
| BetOnline.ag | -205 | +177 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -210 | +176 | -110 | -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Bovada | -220 | +180 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
| BetUS | -205 | +175 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -216 | +165 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks
2026-10-30 20:10 ET
Mavericks ML
+191
Rockets ML
-232
Spread (home)
-6.5
Total
223.7
Market: Mavericks 33% (no-vig)Since open (2026-08-12): spread +2 · total -2.78
🤖 No model pick for this game yet.
Book-by-book odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Book | Home ML | Away ML | Home spread | Away spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +195 | -238 | -110 | -110 | -112 | -108 |
| BetRivers | +175 | -215 | -113 | -108 | -108 | -113 |
| BetMGM | +190 | -235 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | +198 | -232 | -103 | -109 | -107 | -107 |
| BetOnline.ag | +195 | -235 | -107 | -113 | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | +188 | -225 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Bovada | +195 | -235 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| BetUS | +200 | -235 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| MyBookie.ag | +182 | -240 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat
2026-10-30 20:10 ET
Heat ML
-328
Pacers ML
+262
Spread (home)
+8.4
Total
237.3
Market: Heat 74% (no-vig)Since open (2026-08-12): spread -4.94 · total -2.22
🤖 No model pick for this game yet.
Book-by-book odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Book | Home ML | Away ML | Home spread | Away spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -325 | +260 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -400 | +300 | -117 | -105 | -107 | -114 |
| BetMGM | -325 | +260 | -118 | -102 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | -324 | +269 | -111 | -101 | -113 | -102 |
| BetOnline.ag | -327 | +265 | -115 | -105 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -300 | +245 | -122 | +100 | -105 | -115 |
| Bovada | -310 | +255 | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
| BetUS | -325 | +265 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -319 | +238 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
2026-10-30 20:10 ET
Timberwolves ML
-273
Clippers ML
+221
Spread (home)
+7.1
Total
223.4
Market: Timberwolves 70% (no-vig)Since open (2026-09-28): spread +2.39 · total -7.06
🤖 No model pick for this game yet.
Book-by-book odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Book | Home ML | Away ML | Home spread | Away spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -278 | +225 | -118 | -102 | -112 | -108 |
| BetRivers | -278 | +220 | -110 | -112 | -110 | -110 |
| BetMGM | -275 | +220 | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | -272 | +229 | -106 | -106 | -107 | -107 |
| BetOnline.ag | -275 | +226 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -270 | +220 | -110 | -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Bovada | -260 | +215 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| BetUS | -275 | +230 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -270 | +204 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns
2026-10-30 22:10 ET
Suns ML
+148
Nuggets ML
-176
Spread (home)
-4.2
Total
231.3
Market: Suns 39% (no-vig)Since open (2026-08-12): spread +1.67 · total -2.22
🤖 No model pick for this game yet.
Book-by-book odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Book | Home ML | Away ML | Home spread | Away spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +150 | -180 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | +130 | -159 | -109 | -112 | -112 | -109 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | +154 | -175 | -103 | -109 | -107 | -107 |
| BetOnline.ag | +153 | -175 | -107 | -113 | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | +152 | -180 | -112 | -108 | -106 | -114 |
| Bovada | +145 | -170 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| BetUS | +150 | -175 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| MyBookie.ag | +147 | -189 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors
2026-10-30 22:10 ET
Warriors ML
+124
Lakers ML
-147
Spread (home)
-2.9
Total
234.3
Market: Warriors 43% (no-vig)Since open (2026-08-12): spread +1.44 · total -0.22
🤖 No model pick for this game yet.
Book-by-book odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Book | Home ML | Away ML | Home spread | Away spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +124 | -148 | -115 | -105 | -108 | -112 |
| BetRivers | +123 | -150 | -106 | -115 | -108 | -113 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | +127 | -144 | -106 | -106 | -104 | -110 |
| BetOnline.ag | +125 | -145 | -110 | -110 | -107 | -113 |
| FanDuel | +124 | -144 | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
| Bovada | +125 | -145 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
| BetUS | +125 | -145 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| MyBookie.ag | +121 | -155 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
UP NEXT SEASON
MLB
Off-seasonOpening day March 2027.
Last season
61–57
Accuracy
52%
Team-level Elo with a rest-of-season Monte Carlo. Grading resumes with the first played game.
MLB data generated 2026-10-30 16:24:33 · odds feed last pulled 2026-10-30 12:30:12 ET (NFL) and 2026-10-30 12:30:12 ET (NBA).