Betting-blind Elo (K=3, +24 home, margin-of-victory weighted). Every morning: rest-of-season futures, today's slate with simulated scores, and yesterday's graded report card. Backtest 2009–2025: 56.7% straight up, log-loss 0.680 vs 0.691 for always-pick-home.
AL East
Rays 66%
Team
W–L
Run diff
Elo
Proj W
Div
Playoffs
#1 seed
Rays
79–54
+47
1523
94.1
66%
100%
66%
Yankees
75–58
+100
1541
91.6
24%
100%
24%
Red Sox
73–60
+101
1548
89.5
9%
99%
9%
Orioles
65–69
-24
1496
78.6
0%
12%
0%
Blue Jays
65–70
-65
1497
78.9
0%
13%
0%
AL Central
White Sox 69%
Team
W–L
Run diff
Elo
Proj W
Div
Playoffs
#1 seed
White Sox
70–63
+44
1501
85.1
69%
88%
<1%
Guardians
68–66
-4
1504
82.7
28%
63%
0%
Tigers
62–71
+70
1510
77.4
2%
7%
0%
Twins
64–70
-56
1474
77.1
2%
5%
0%
Royals
60–75
-81
1481
72.6
0%
<1%
0%
AL West
Astros 50%
Team
W–L
Run diff
Elo
Proj W
Div
Playoffs
#1 seed
Astros
67–67
-44
1495
80.8
50%
54%
<1%
Rangers
66–68
-47
1484
79.3
26%
31%
0%
Mariners
64–70
-57
1492
79.0
24%
28%
0%
Athletics
53–81
-185
1433
64.7
0%
0%
0%
Angels
52–82
-75
1448
64.0
0%
0%
0%
NL East
Braves 88%
Team
W–L
Run diff
Elo
Proj W
Div
Playoffs
#1 seed
Braves
79–56
+108
1532
94.1
88%
100%
5%
Phillies
74–60
+23
1531
88.8
12%
88%
<1%
Marlins
68–66
+19
1500
81.2
<1%
5%
0%
Mets
60–74
-52
1490
73.4
0%
0%
0%
Nationals
63–73
+12
1472
74.7
0%
0%
0%
NL Central
Brewers 97%
Team
W–L
Run diff
Elo
Proj W
Div
Playoffs
#1 seed
Brewers
83–51
+173
1569
99.4
97%
100%
73%
Cubs
76–58
+119
1546
91.3
3%
97%
1%
Reds
63–71
-100
1469
74.0
0%
0%
0%
Pirates
65–70
+24
1495
78.4
0%
1%
0%
Cardinals
67–68
-13
1491
80.3
0%
2%
0%
NL West
Dodgers 99%
Team
W–L
Run diff
Elo
Proj W
Div
Playoffs
#1 seed
Dodgers
80–54
+148
1552
96.6
99%
100%
21%
Padres
72–62
+17
1527
87.1
1%
73%
<1%
Diamondbacks
71–64
0
1508
85.0
0%
35%
0%
Rockies
52–82
-138
1418
62.4
0%
0%
0%
Giants
56–79
-64
1474
68.8
0%
0%
0%
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random. Run differential is season-to-date as of the last pull. Five teams shown per division.
Data generated 2026-08-28 21:03:21 · run date 2026-08-28.