CAN TRE BEAT VEGAS? 🎰

Elo with the starting pitcher, rest and travel priced in Elo points, run environment from exponentially weighted attack/defense rates, then the rest of the season replayed.

• Home Elo — Team Elo, home side, plus +24 home advantage
• Away Elo — Team Elo, away side
• Starting pitcher — 3.0 Elo per point of rolling game score above the team’s own staff, with a TBD fallback
• Rest — +2.3 Elo per rest day, capped at 3 days
• Travel — −0.31 × miles^⅓, capped at −4 Elo
• Run rates — EWMA runs scored/allowed, half-life 20 games, shrunk to the league mean

What this is missing. The whole rating engine buys about 0.013 nats of log loss over always-picking-home, which is what baseball looks like at the game level. The pitcher, rest and travel adjustments are applied by the daily pipeline rather than the replay, so they are not in the measured breakdown yet — that is the next job here, ahead of park factors, bullpen quality or lineup handedness.

Ratings move inside every replay, so the table on screen is one point in a distribution, not a fixed outcome. Averaging those replays would barely move at all — a fair game's expected Elo change is about zero — which is why the chart draws individual simulated seasons and never their average. Full feature sheet.