Model grading · Elo vs reality
Accuracy
Every completed match, graded against the prediction the model made before kickoff. Each call is the most likely outcome from the frozen win/draw/loss split — no hindsight, no re-running after the result is in.
Overall accuracy
65%68 of 104 correct
80%
Last 5
104
Games graded
Home win predicted
68%
41/60 correct
Draw predicted
—
0/0 correct
Away win predicted
61%
27/44 correct
Accuracy over timeRunning hit-rate after each completed match
Game by game
| Match | Stage | Predicted | Result | Call | Running |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇸 Spain v 🇦🇷 Argentina Sun, Jul 19, 3:00 PM EDT | Final | Spain win · 39% | 1–0 Spain win | ✓ Correct | 65% |
| 🇫🇷 France v 🏴 England Sat, Jul 18, 5:00 PM EDT | Third place | France win · 48% | 4–6 England win | ✗ Missed | 65% |
| 🏴 England v 🇦🇷 Argentina Wed, Jul 15, 3:00 PM EDT | Semi-final | Argentina win · 53% | 1–2 Argentina win | ✓ Correct | 66% |
| 🇫🇷 France v 🇪🇸 Spain Tue, Jul 14, 3:00 PM EDT | Semi-final | Spain win · 39% | 0–2 Spain win | ✓ Correct | 65% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇨🇭 Switzerland Sat, Jul 11, 9:00 PM EDT | Quarter-final | Argentina win · 87% | 3–1 Argentina win | ✓ Correct | 65% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway v 🏴 England Sat, Jul 11, 5:00 PM EDT | Quarter-final | England win · 78% | 1–2 England win | ✓ Correct | 65% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain v 🇧🇪 Belgium Fri, Jul 10, 3:00 PM EDT | Quarter-final | Spain win · 75% | 2–1 Spain win | ✓ Correct | 64% |
| 🇫🇷 France v 🇲🇦 Morocco Thu, Jul 9, 4:00 PM EDT | Quarter-final | France win · 73% | 2–0 France win | ✓ Correct | 64% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland v 🇨🇴 Colombia Tue, Jul 7, 4:00 PM EDT | Round of 16 | Colombia win · 51% | 0–0 Draw | ✗ Missed | 64% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇪🇬 Egypt Tue, Jul 7, 12:00 PM EDT | Round of 16 | Argentina win · 93% | 3–2 Argentina win | ✓ Correct | 64% |
| 🇺🇸 United States v 🇧🇪 Belgium Mon, Jul 6, 8:00 PM EDT | Round of 16 | Belgium win · 41% | 1–4 Belgium win | ✓ Correct | 64% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal v 🇪🇸 Spain Mon, Jul 6, 3:00 PM EDT | Round of 16 | Spain win · 64% | 0–1 Spain win | ✓ Correct | 63% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico v 🏴 England Sun, Jul 5, 8:00 PM EDT | Round of 16 | England win · 58% | 2–3 England win | ✓ Correct | 63% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil v 🇳🇴 Norway Sun, Jul 5, 4:00 PM EDT | Round of 16 | Brazil win · 65% | 1–2 Norway win | ✗ Missed | 63% |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay v 🇫🇷 France Sat, Jul 4, 5:00 PM EDT | Round of 16 | France win · 93% | 0–1 France win | ✓ Correct | 63% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada v 🇲🇦 Morocco Sat, Jul 4, 1:00 PM EDT | Round of 16 | Morocco win · 61% | 0–3 Morocco win | ✓ Correct | 63% |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia v 🇬🇭 Ghana Fri, Jul 3, 9:30 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Colombia win · 90% | 1–0 Colombia win | ✓ Correct | 63% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde Fri, Jul 3, 6:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Argentina win · 96% | 3–2 Argentina win | ✓ Correct | 62% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia v 🇪🇬 Egypt Fri, Jul 3, 2:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Australia win · 43% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 62% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland v 🇩🇿 Algeria Thu, Jul 2, 11:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Switzerland win · 66% | 2–0 Switzerland win | ✓ Correct | 62% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal v 🇭🇷 Croatia Thu, Jul 2, 7:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Portugal win · 62% | 2–1 Portugal win | ✓ Correct | 62% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain v 🇦🇹 Austria Thu, Jul 2, 3:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Spain win · 92% | 3–0 Spain win | ✓ Correct | 61% |
| 🇺🇸 United States v 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina Wed, Jul 1, 8:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | United States win · 90% | 2–0 United States win | ✓ Correct | 61% |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium v 🇸🇳 Senegal Wed, Jul 1, 4:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Belgium win · 58% | 3–2 Belgium win | ✓ Correct | 60% |
| 🏴 England v 🇨🇩 Congo DR Wed, Jul 1, 12:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | England win · 92% | 2–1 England win | ✓ Correct | 60% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico v 🇪🇨 Ecuador Tue, Jun 30, 9:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Mexico win · 66% | 2–0 Mexico win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇫🇷 France v 🇸🇪 Sweden Tue, Jun 30, 5:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | France win · 94% | 3–0 France win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire v 🇳🇴 Norway Tue, Jun 30, 1:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Norway win · 65% | 1–2 Norway win | ✓ Correct | 58% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands v 🇲🇦 Morocco Mon, Jun 29, 9:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Netherlands win · 43% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 58% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany v 🇵🇾 Paraguay Mon, Jun 29, 4:30 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Germany win · 76% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 59% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil v 🇯🇵 Japan Mon, Jun 29, 1:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Brazil win · 63% | 2–1 Brazil win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa v 🇨🇦 Canada Sun, Jun 28, 3:00 PM EDT | Round of 32 | Canada win · 77% | 0–1 Canada win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria v 🇦🇹 Austria Sat, Jun 27, 10:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Austria win · 40% | 3–3 Draw | ✗ Missed | 58% |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan v 🇦🇷 Argentina Sat, Jun 27, 10:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Argentina win · 95% | 1–3 Argentina win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇨🇩 Congo DR v 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan Sat, Jun 27, 7:30 PM EDT | Group stage | Congo DR win · 40% | 3–1 Congo DR win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia v 🇵🇹 Portugal Sat, Jun 27, 7:30 PM EDT | Group stage | Portugal win · 47% | 0–0 Draw | ✗ Missed | 58% |
| 🇵🇦 Panama v 🏴 England Sat, Jun 27, 5:00 PM EDT | Group stage | England win · 92% | 0–2 England win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia v 🇬🇭 Ghana Sat, Jun 27, 5:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Croatia win · 80% | 2–1 Croatia win | ✓ Correct | 58% |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt v 🇮🇷 IR Iran Fri, Jun 26, 11:00 PM EDT | Group stage | IR Iran win · 48% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 58% |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand v 🇧🇪 Belgium Fri, Jun 26, 11:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Belgium win · 91% | 1–5 Belgium win | ✓ Correct | 58% |
| 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde v 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia Fri, Jun 26, 8:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Saudi Arabia win · 52% | 0–0 Draw | ✗ Missed | 58% |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay v 🇪🇸 Spain Fri, Jun 26, 8:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Spain win · 85% | 0–1 Spain win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway v 🇫🇷 France Fri, Jun 26, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | France win · 86% | 1–4 France win | ✓ Correct | 58% |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal v 🇮🇶 Iraq Fri, Jun 26, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Senegal win · 74% | 5–0 Senegal win | ✓ Correct | 57% |
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye v 🇺🇸 United States Thu, Jun 25, 10:00 PM EDT | Group stage | United States win · 71% | 3–2 Türkiye win | ✗ Missed | 57% |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay v 🇦🇺 Australia Thu, Jun 25, 10:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Australia win · 52% | 0–0 Draw | ✗ Missed | 58% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan v 🇸🇪 Sweden Thu, Jun 25, 7:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Japan win · 81% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 59% |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia v 🇳🇱 Netherlands Thu, Jun 25, 7:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Netherlands win · 92% | 1–3 Netherlands win | ✓ Correct | 60% |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador v 🇩🇪 Germany Thu, Jun 25, 4:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Germany win · 65% | 2–1 Ecuador win | ✗ Missed | 59% |
| 🇨🇼 Curaçao v 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire Thu, Jun 25, 4:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Côte d'Ivoire win · 81% | 0–2 Côte d'Ivoire win | ✓ Correct | 60% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa v 🇰🇷 Korea Republic Wed, Jun 24, 9:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Korea Republic win · 77% | 1–0 South Africa win | ✗ Missed | 59% |
| 🇨🇿 Czechia v 🇲🇽 Mexico Wed, Jun 24, 9:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Mexico win · 87% | 0–3 Mexico win | ✓ Correct | 60% |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco v 🇭🇹 Haiti Wed, Jun 24, 6:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Morocco win · 92% | 4–2 Morocco win | ✓ Correct | 60% |
| 🏴 Scotland v 🇧🇷 Brazil Wed, Jun 24, 6:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Brazil win · 87% | 0–3 Brazil win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland v 🇨🇦 Canada Wed, Jun 24, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Canada win · 43% | 2–1 Switzerland win | ✗ Missed | 58% |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina v 🇶🇦 Qatar Wed, Jun 24, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Qatar win · 47% | 3–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina win | ✗ Missed | 59% |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia v 🇨🇩 Congo DR Tue, Jun 23, 10:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Colombia win · 82% | 1–0 Colombia win | ✓ Correct | 60% |
| 🇵🇦 Panama v 🇭🇷 Croatia Tue, Jun 23, 7:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Croatia win · 70% | 0–1 Croatia win | ✓ Correct | 60% |
| 🏴 England v 🇬🇭 Ghana Tue, Jun 23, 4:00 PM EDT | Group stage | England win · 93% | 0–0 Draw | ✗ Missed | 59% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal v 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan Tue, Jun 23, 1:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Portugal win · 86% | 5–0 Portugal win | ✓ Correct | 60% |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan v 🇩🇿 Algeria Mon, Jun 22, 11:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Algeria win · 53% | 1–2 Algeria win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway v 🇸🇳 Senegal Mon, Jun 22, 8:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Senegal win · 47% | 3–2 Norway win | ✗ Missed | 58% |
| 🇫🇷 France v 🇮🇶 Iraq Mon, Jun 22, 5:00 PM EDT | Group stage | France win · 93% | 3–0 France win | ✓ Correct | 60% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇦🇹 Austria Mon, Jun 22, 1:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Argentina win · 92% | 2–0 Argentina win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand v 🇪🇬 Egypt Sun, Jun 21, 9:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Egypt win · 66% | 1–3 Egypt win | ✓ Correct | 57% |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay v 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde Sun, Jun 21, 6:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Uruguay win · 91% | 2–2 Draw | ✗ Missed | 56% |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium v 🇮🇷 IR Iran Sun, Jun 21, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Belgium win · 50% | 0–0 Draw | ✗ Missed | 58% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain v 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia Sun, Jun 21, 12:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Spain win · 95% | 4–0 Spain win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador v 🇨🇼 Curaçao Sat, Jun 20, 8:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Ecuador win · 91% | 0–0 Draw | ✗ Missed | 58% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany v 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire Sat, Jun 20, 4:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Germany win · 77% | 2–1 Germany win | ✓ Correct | 60% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands v 🇸🇪 Sweden Sat, Jun 20, 1:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Netherlands win · 90% | 5–1 Netherlands win | ✓ Correct | 59% |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia v 🇯🇵 Japan Sat, Jun 20, 12:00 AM EDT | Group stage | Japan win · 82% | 0–4 Japan win | ✓ Correct | 58% |
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye v 🇵🇾 Paraguay Fri, Jun 19, 11:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Türkiye win · 52% | 0–1 Paraguay win | ✗ Missed | 56% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil v 🇭🇹 Haiti Fri, Jun 19, 8:30 PM EDT | Group stage | Brazil win · 94% | 3–0 Brazil win | ✓ Correct | 58% |
| 🏴 Scotland v 🇲🇦 Morocco Fri, Jun 19, 6:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Morocco win · 74% | 0–1 Morocco win | ✓ Correct | 57% |
| 🇺🇸 United States v 🇦🇺 Australia Fri, Jun 19, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | United States win · 53% | 2–0 United States win | ✓ Correct | 55% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico v 🇰🇷 Korea Republic Thu, Jun 18, 9:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Mexico win · 64% | 1–0 Mexico win | ✓ Correct | 54% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada v 🇶🇦 Qatar Thu, Jun 18, 6:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Canada win · 83% | 6–0 Canada win | ✓ Correct | 52% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland v 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina Thu, Jun 18, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Switzerland win · 85% | 4–1 Switzerland win | ✓ Correct | 50% |
| 🇨🇿 Czechia v 🇿🇦 South Africa Thu, Jun 18, 12:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Czechia win · 50% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 48% |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan v 🇨🇴 Colombia Wed, Jun 17, 10:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Colombia win · 77% | 1–3 Colombia win | ✓ Correct | 50% |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana v 🇵🇦 Panama Wed, Jun 17, 7:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Panama win · 58% | 1–0 Ghana win | ✗ Missed | 48% |
| 🏴 England v 🇭🇷 Croatia Wed, Jun 17, 4:00 PM EDT | Group stage | England win · 66% | 4–2 England win | ✓ Correct | 50% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal v 🇨🇩 Congo DR Wed, Jun 17, 1:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Portugal win · 90% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 48% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇩🇿 Algeria Tue, Jun 16, 9:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Argentina win · 92% | 3–0 Argentina win | ✓ Correct | 50% |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq v 🇳🇴 Norway Tue, Jun 16, 6:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Norway win · 64% | 1–4 Norway win | ✓ Correct | 47% |
| 🇫🇷 France v 🇸🇳 Senegal Tue, Jun 16, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | France win · 80% | 3–1 France win | ✓ Correct | 44% |
| 🇦🇹 Austria v 🇯🇴 Jordan Tue, Jun 16, 12:00 AM EDT | Group stage | Austria win · 53% | 3–1 Austria win | ✓ Correct | 41% |
| 🇮🇷 IR Iran v 🇳🇿 New Zealand Mon, Jun 15, 9:00 PM EDT | Group stage | IR Iran win · 82% | 2–2 Draw | ✗ Missed | 38% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia v 🇺🇾 Uruguay Mon, Jun 15, 6:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Uruguay win · 83% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 40% |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium v 🇪🇬 Egypt Mon, Jun 15, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Belgium win · 68% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 43% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain v 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde Mon, Jun 15, 12:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Spain win · 96% | 0–0 Draw | ✗ Missed | 46% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden v 🇹🇳 Tunisia Sun, Jun 14, 10:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Tunisia win · 41% | 5–1 Sweden win | ✗ Missed | 50% |
| 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire v 🇪🇨 Ecuador Sun, Jun 14, 7:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Ecuador win · 63% | 1–0 Côte d'Ivoire win | ✗ Missed | 55% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands v 🇯🇵 Japan Sun, Jun 14, 4:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Netherlands win · 48% | 2–2 Draw | ✗ Missed | 60% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany v 🇨🇼 Curaçao Sun, Jun 14, 1:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Germany win · 93% | 7–1 Germany win | ✓ Correct | 67% |
| 🇭🇹 Haiti v 🏴 Scotland Sat, Jun 13, 9:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Scotland win · 70% | 0–1 Scotland win | ✓ Correct | 63% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil v 🇲🇦 Morocco Sat, Jun 13, 6:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Brazil win · 54% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 57% |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar v 🇨🇭 Switzerland Sat, Jun 13, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Switzerland win · 78% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 67% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia v 🇹🇷 Türkiye Sat, Jun 13, 12:00 AM EDT | Group stage | Australia win · 38% | 2–0 Australia win | ✓ Correct | 80% |
| 🇺🇸 United States v 🇵🇾 Paraguay Fri, Jun 12, 9:00 PM EDT | Group stage | United States win · 68% | 4–1 United States win | ✓ Correct | 75% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada v 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina Fri, Jun 12, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Canada win · 89% | 1–1 Draw | ✗ Missed | 67% |
| 🇰🇷 Korea Republic v 🇨🇿 Czechia Thu, Jun 11, 10:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Korea Republic win · 64% | 2–1 Korea Republic win | ✓ Correct | 100% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico v 🇿🇦 South Africa Thu, Jun 11, 3:00 PM EDT | Group stage | Mexico win · 91% | 2–0 Mexico win | ✓ Correct | 100% |