Model vs model · our call against the field
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How the Fyfa_Rat Model stacks up against PADDLIN' (Michael Caley · Expecting Goals) on every fixture both have called: the win / draw / loss split (H / D / A), each model's projected score, and — once a game is played — who got it right. A projection, not a prediction.
85%
Picks agree
23 of 27 fixtures
56%
Fyfa_Rat Model
15/27 played
59%
PADDLIN'
16/27 played
| Match | Fyfa_Rat Model | PADDLIN' | Agree? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏴 England v 🇬🇭 Ghana Tue, Jun 23, 4:00 PM EDT · 0–0 | England ✗ 93% / 6% / 1% 3.1–0.2 | England ✗ 82% / 13% / 5% 2.5–0.4 | Agree |
| 🇵🇦 Panama v 🇭🇷 Croatia Tue, Jun 23, 7:00 PM EDT · 0–1 | Croatia ✓ 11% / 19% / 70% 0.7–2.0 | Croatia ✓ 16% / 23% / 62% 0.8–1.8 | Agree |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia v 🇨🇩 Congo DR Tue, Jun 23, 10:00 PM EDT · 1–0 | Colombia ✓ 82% / 14% / 4% 2.3–0.4 | Colombia ✓ 71% / 20% / 9% 1.9–0.5 | Agree |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina v 🇶🇦 Qatar Wed, Jun 24, 3:00 PM EDT · 3–1 | Qatar ✗ 28% / 26% / 47% 1.1–1.6 | Bosnia and Herzegovina ✓ 60% / 23% / 17% 1.7–0.8 | Differ |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland v 🇨🇦 Canada Wed, Jun 24, 3:00 PM EDT · 2–1 | Canada ✗ 31% / 26% / 43% 1.2–1.5 | Canada ✗ 33% / 24% / 42% 1.4–1.6 | Agree |
| 🏴 Scotland v 🇧🇷 Brazil Wed, Jun 24, 6:00 PM EDT · 0–3 | Brazil ✓ 2% / 11% / 87% 0.2–2.5 | Brazil ✓ 9% / 19% / 72% 0.6–2.0 | Agree |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco v 🇭🇹 Haiti Wed, Jun 24, 6:00 PM EDT · 4–2 | Morocco ✓ 92% / 7% / 1% 2.8–0.1 | Morocco ✓ 84% / 12% / 4% 2.6–0.4 | Agree |
| 🇨🇿 Czechia v 🇲🇽 Mexico Wed, Jun 24, 9:00 PM EDT · 0–3 | Mexico ✓ 2% / 11% / 87% 0.2–2.5 | Mexico ✓ 13% / 21% / 66% 0.7–1.9 | Agree |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa v 🇰🇷 Korea Republic Wed, Jun 24, 9:00 PM EDT · 1–0 | Korea Republic ✗ 7% / 16% / 77% 0.5–2.2 | Korea Republic ✗ 17% / 24% / 60% 0.8–1.7 | Agree |
| 🇨🇼 Curaçao v 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire Thu, Jun 25, 4:00 PM EDT · 0–2 | Côte d'Ivoire ✓ 5% / 14% / 81% 0.4–2.3 | Côte d'Ivoire ✓ 1% / 3% / 96% 0.4–4.3 | Agree |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador v 🇩🇪 Germany Thu, Jun 25, 4:00 PM EDT · 2–1 | Germany ✗ 14% / 21% / 65% 0.8–1.9 | Germany ✗ 24% / 24% / 52% 1.1–1.7 | Agree |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia v 🇳🇱 Netherlands Thu, Jun 25, 7:00 PM EDT · 1–3 | Netherlands ✓ 1% / 7% / 92% 0.1–2.8 | Netherlands ✓ 7% / 15% / 78% 0.5–2.3 | Agree |
| 🇯🇵 Japan v 🇸🇪 Sweden Thu, Jun 25, 7:00 PM EDT · 1–1 | Japan ✗ 81% / 14% / 5% 2.3–0.4 | Japan ✗ 45% / 24% / 31% 1.7–1.4 | Agree |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay v 🇦🇺 Australia Thu, Jun 25, 10:00 PM EDT · 0–0 | Australia ✗ 23% / 25% / 52% 1.0–1.7 | Paraguay ✗ 42% / 32% / 26% 1.1–0.8 | Differ |
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye v 🇺🇸 United States Thu, Jun 25, 10:00 PM EDT · 3–2 | United States ✗ 10% / 19% / 71% 0.6–2.1 | United States ✗ 27% / 26% / 47% 1.1–1.5 | Agree |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal v 🇮🇶 Iraq Fri, Jun 26, 3:00 PM EDT · 5–0 | Senegal ✓ 74% / 18% / 8% 2.1–0.6 | Senegal ✓ 77% / 17% / 6% 2.1–0.4 | Agree |
| 🇳🇴 Norway v 🇫🇷 France Fri, Jun 26, 3:00 PM EDT · 1–4 | France ✓ 3% / 11% / 86% 0.2–2.5 | France ✓ 20% / 24% / 56% 0.9–1.7 | Agree |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay v 🇪🇸 Spain Fri, Jun 26, 8:00 PM EDT · 0–1 | Spain ✓ 3% / 12% / 85% 0.3–2.4 | Spain ✓ 15% / 23% / 62% 0.7–1.7 | Agree |
| 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde v 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia Fri, Jun 26, 8:00 PM EDT · 0–0 | Saudi Arabia ✗ 23% / 24% / 52% 1.0–1.7 | Cabo Verde ✗ 44% / 28% / 28% 1.3–1.0 | Differ |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand v 🇧🇪 Belgium Fri, Jun 26, 11:00 PM EDT · 1–5 | Belgium ✓ 1% / 8% / 91% 0.1–2.7 | Belgium ✓ 3% / 7% / 91% 0.5–3.5 | Agree |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt v 🇮🇷 IR Iran Fri, Jun 26, 11:00 PM EDT · 1–1 | IR Iran ✗ 27% / 25% / 48% 1.1–1.6 | Egypt ✗ 36% / 33% / 31% 0.9–0.8 | Differ |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia v 🇬🇭 Ghana Sat, Jun 27, 5:00 PM EDT · 2–1 | Croatia ✓ 80% / 15% / 5% 2.3–0.4 | Croatia ✓ 65% / 21% / 14% 2.0–0.8 | Agree |
| 🇵🇦 Panama v 🏴 England Sat, Jun 27, 5:00 PM EDT · 0–2 | England ✓ 1% / 7% / 92% 0.2–2.9 | England ✓ 7% / 17% / 76% 0.5–2.1 | Agree |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia v 🇵🇹 Portugal Sat, Jun 27, 7:30 PM EDT · 0–0 | Portugal ✗ 28% / 25% / 47% 1.1–1.6 | Portugal ✗ 34% / 29% / 37% 1.1–1.2 | Agree |
| 🇨🇩 Congo DR v 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan Sat, Jun 27, 7:30 PM EDT · 3–1 | Congo DR ✓ 40% / 26% / 34% 1.4–1.3 | Congo DR ✓ 46% / 29% / 26% 1.3–0.9 | Agree |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan v 🇦🇷 Argentina Sat, Jun 27, 10:00 PM EDT · 1–3 | Argentina ✓ 1% / 4% / 95% 0.1–3.5 | Argentina ✓ 1% / 3% / 97% 0.3–4.3 | Agree |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria v 🇦🇹 Austria Sat, Jun 27, 10:00 PM EDT · 3–3 | Austria ✗ 35% / 26% / 40% 1.3–1.4 | Austria ✗ 36% / 28% / 37% 1.2–1.2 | Agree |
H / D / A is the home-win / draw / away-win split. Projected score is each model's expected goals. PADDLIN' figures are transcribed from Michael Caley · Expecting Goals; our split comes from the Elo + Poisson head-to-head engine. Once a fixture is played, a ✓/✗ marks whether each model's most likely outcome matched the result.