Elo Monte Carlo · 100,000 simulations
Road to the Final
Championship odds drawn from 100,000 simulated tournaments, blending an online World Football Elo with a Silver/SPI-style model (50/50). A projection — not a prediction.
Projected favorite
🇪🇸Spain
100%to lift the trophy
100%
Reach final
100%
Reach semis
2144
Elo
Championship probability
Top contenders · share of simulations ending in a title
Trophy odds over time
Championship odds for every team that has reached 5%, updated after every match played. Each line is coloured by national kit.
Round-by-round survival0%100%
| # | Team | Grp | Elo | Win Grp | Advance | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸Spain | H | 2144 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 2 | 🇦🇷Argentina | J | 2111 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | — |
| 3 | 🏴England | L | 2055 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — |
| 4 | 🇫🇷France | I | 2054 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — |
| 5 | 🇧🇷Brazil | C | 1993 | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | 🇵🇹Portugal | K | 1970 | — | 100% | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | 🇳🇱Netherlands | F | 1955 | 100% | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | 🇧🇪Belgium | G | 1931 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — | — |
| 9 | 🇨🇴Colombia | K | 1925 | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | 🇲🇦Morocco | C | 1916 | — | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — | — |
| 11 | 🇩🇪Germany | E | 1908 | 100% | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | 🇲🇽Mexico | A | 1886 | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | 🇭🇷Croatia | L | 1873 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | 🇯🇵Japan | F | 1872 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | 🇺🇾Uruguay | H | 1861 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | 🇨🇭Switzerland | B | 1861 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — | — |
| 17 | 🇳🇴Norway | I | 1846 | — | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — | — |
| 18 | 🇸🇳Senegal | I | 1824 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 19 | 🇪🇨Ecuador | E | 1823 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 20 | 🇮🇷IR Iran | G | 1810 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21 | 🇺🇸United States | D | 1804 | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 22 | 🇦🇺Australia | D | 1796 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 23 | 🇰🇷Korea Republic | A | 1795 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 24 | 🇹🇷Türkiye | D | 1792 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 25 | 🇦🇹Austria | J | 1776 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 26 | 🇨🇦Canada | B | 1770 | — | 100% | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 27 | 🇪🇬Egypt | G | 1764 | — | 100% | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 28 | 🇩🇿Algeria | J | 1749 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 29 | 🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire | E | 1747 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 30 | 🇵🇾Paraguay | D | 1742 | — | 100% | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 31 | 🏴Scotland | C | 1741 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 32 | 🇨🇩Congo DR | K | 1718 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 33 | 🇸🇪Sweden | F | 1707 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 34 | 🇨🇿Czechia | A | 1696 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35 | 🇵🇦Panama | L | 1690 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 36 | 🇬🇭Ghana | L | 1678 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 37 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia | H | 1674 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 38 | 🇺🇿Uzbekistan | K | 1665 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 39 | 🇿🇦South Africa | A | 1657 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 40 | 🇯🇴Jordan | J | 1654 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 41 | 🇹🇳Tunisia | F | 1644 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42 | 🇮🇶Iraq | I | 1639 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 43 | 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1639 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 44 | 🇶🇦Qatar | B | 1616 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 45 | 🇨🇻Cabo Verde | H | 1611 | — | 100% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 46 | 🇳🇿New Zealand | G | 1588 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 47 | 🇭🇹Haiti | C | 1577 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 48 | 🇨🇼Curaçao | E | 1536 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Method: group matches simulated with a Poisson goals model driven by Elo difference (host boost for USA/MEX/CAN); top two per group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance. Once the real round of 32 is set, the simulation runs the actual bracket — played knockout games are fixed to their real winners (shootouts included) and only the remaining ties are simulated; before that, the bracket is Elo-seeded. “Advance” = reach the round of 32.