Elo Monte Carlo · 20,000 simulations
Road to the Final
Championship odds drawn from 20,000 simulated tournaments, blending an online World Football Elo with a Silver/SPI-style model (50/50). A projection — not a prediction.
Refreshed whenever the rating file is updated (edit
data/elo-ratings.json and run npm run predict).Projected favorite
🇦🇷Argentina
35%to lift the trophy
61%
Reach final
84%
Reach semis
2081
Elo
Championship probability
Top contenders · share of simulations ending in a title
Round-by-round survival0%100%
| # | Team | Grp | Elo | Win Grp | Advance | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇦🇷Argentina | J | 2081 | 99% | 100% | 99% | 96% | 84% | 61% | 35% |
| 2 | 🇪🇸Spain | H | 2072 | 88% | 100% | 99% | 94% | 81% | 51% | 29% |
| 3 | 🇫🇷France | I | 2052 | 97% | 100% | 99% | 91% | 75% | 39% | 20% |
| 4 | 🏴England | L | 2012 | 99% | 100% | 98% | 84% | 53% | 21% | 8% |
| 5 | 🇧🇷Brazil | C | 1986 | 75% | 100% | 97% | 77% | 37% | 12% | 4% |
| 6 | 🇵🇹Portugal | K | 1943 | 40% | 96% | 89% | 62% | 16% | 4% | 1% |
| 7 | 🇳🇱Netherlands | F | 1935 | 59% | 100% | 91% | 57% | 12% | 3% | <1% |
| 8 | 🇩🇪Germany | E | 1921 | 86% | 100% | 86% | 49% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 9 | 🇨🇴Colombia | K | 1918 | 58% | 100% | 82% | 44% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 10 | 🇲🇦Morocco | C | 1909 | 25% | 100% | 79% | 37% | 6% | 1% | <1% |
| 11 | 🇯🇵Japan | F | 1888 | 38% | 99% | 69% | 19% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 | 🇲🇽Mexico | A | 1888 | 99% | 100% | 71% | 28% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 13 | 🇧🇪Belgium | G | 1871 | 59% | 97% | 61% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 | 🇺🇾Uruguay | H | 1874 | 10% | 93% | 60% | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 | 🇺🇸United States | D | 1852 | 100% | 100% | 56% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16 | 🇭🇷Croatia | L | 1863 | <1% | 93% | 56% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 17 | 🇳🇴Norway | I | 1825 | 3% | 96% | 38% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 18 | 🇪🇨Ecuador | E | 1824 | 1% | 89% | 33% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 19 | 🇨🇭Switzerland | B | 1830 | 31% | 100% | 43% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 20 | 🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire | E | 1755 | 13% | 99% | 10% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 21 | 🇰🇷Korea Republic | A | 1819 | <1% | 99% | 33% | 4% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 22 | 🇸🇳Senegal | I | 1832 | <1% | 82% | 38% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 23 | 🇮🇷IR Iran | G | 1814 | 24% | 72% | 23% | 4% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 24 | 🇦🇺Australia | D | 1801 | <1% | 97% | 25% | 5% | <1% | — | — |
| 25 | 🇨🇦Canada | B | 1795 | 69% | 100% | 22% | 5% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 26 | 🇦🇹Austria | J | 1788 | 1% | 93% | 18% | 4% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 27 | 🏴Scotland | C | 1753 | <1% | 68% | 6% | 1% | <1% | — | — |
| 28 | 🇩🇿Algeria | J | 1758 | <1% | 59% | 7% | 1% | <1% | — | — |
| 29 | 🇪🇬Egypt | G | 1745 | 16% | 79% | 5% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 30 | 🇹🇷Türkiye | D | 1768 | — | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 31 | 🇵🇾Paraguay | D | 1738 | <1% | 71% | 3% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 32 | 🇸🇪Sweden | F | 1714 | 3% | 93% | 2% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 33 | 🇺🇿Uzbekistan | K | 1711 | <1% | 26% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 34 | 🇬🇭Ghana | L | 1679 | <1% | 51% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 35 | 🇨🇩Congo DR | K | 1708 | 1% | 42% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 36 | 🇨🇿Czechia | A | 1701 | — | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 37 | 🇵🇦Panama | L | 1714 | <1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 38 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia | H | 1682 | 2% | 58% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 39 | 🇯🇴Jordan | J | 1672 | — | 9% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 40 | 🇮🇶Iraq | I | 1667 | <1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 41 | 🇹🇳Tunisia | F | 1659 | <1% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
| 42 | 🇶🇦Qatar | B | 1645 | — | 44% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 43 | 🇿🇦South Africa | A | 1644 | — | 7% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
| 44 | 🇳🇿New Zealand | G | 1628 | <1% | 17% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 45 | 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1615 | — | 31% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 46 | 🇨🇻Cabo Verde | H | 1603 | <1% | 24% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
| 47 | 🇭🇹Haiti | C | 1584 | — | <1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 48 | 🇨🇼Curaçao | E | 1541 | <1% | <1% | — | — | — | — | — |
Method: group matches simulated with a Poisson goals model driven by Elo difference (host boost for USA/MEX/CAN); top two per group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance; the knockout bracket is Elo-seeded (not FIFA's exact slot table) and resolved as single elimination. “Advance” = reach the round of 32.